ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical

[jlauderdal]

too many words..

but yes... lol

I have seen a ton of discos, this is top 5 in terms of pure meteorological mumble jumble...you have to work very hard to make all that work

5.12 and climbing slowly now

haha well it covered everything well

though by the time you finish writing that much things might have already changed lol.

We just had a flash flood warning that was issued to last approx 4 hours,it was canceled after 45 mins

[hipshot]

00z Best Track:

Location: 24.8°N 80.2°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: nan kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1012 mb
Radius of Circulation: 180 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 120 NM

https://i.imgur.com/Rq0XwkS.png

From that picture, it looks like the storm has moved much further north that we were told it should be.

[floridasun78]

second time today i hear thunder toward coast line miami beach

[Nuno]

Pressure steadily falling in Miami-Dade county throughout the day, down to 1009 mb.

[NDG]

Pressure steadily falling in Miami-Dade county throughout the day, down to 1009 mb.

Where do you see a pressure that low right now? Lowest pressure I can find is 1011 mb from official sites & buoys.

[Aric Dunn]

Starting to come together. convection is beginning to concentrate around the organizing llc east of north key largo.

still sheared of course but low levels are improving.

[Nuno]

Pressure steadily falling in Miami-Dade county throughout the day, down to 1009 mb.

Where do you see a pressure that low right now? Lowest pressure I can find is 1011 mb from official sites & buoys.

Personal measurement, I'm about a mile and a half from the coast. Seems to fluctuate between 1010 and 1009 mb but has settled on the latter atm.

[Kazmit]

Indeed, shear is decreasing in the area.

[floridasun78]

look rain final moving out miami moving to Bahama

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Evening everyone

Been away believe it or not was out in the boat here in north key largo. Not off shore in the bays, rained all day yesterday very gusty winds. Today a few showers and breezy. Just now could se off shore to the NE a lot of lighting, not rain here this evening.

[floridasun78]

my weather here say north caolina need eye on it look like he say models run show by their next week

[northjaxpro]

On IR satellite imagery tonight, definitely seeing the establishment of improved cirrus outflow fanning out , which definitely signals to me that shear has become much lighter and the cyclone is organizing. It will be moving over the Gulf Stream these next çouple of days. I think this cyclone will transistion to tropical. I also think this system could make a run at being a Cat 1 hurricane by late Monday off the NC Outer Banks, if it can take full advantage of staying over the Gulf Current as it traverses north/northeast off the Southeast U.S. Atlantc Coast.

[Aric Dunn]

Circulation is now east of Ft lauderdale.

[jlauderdal]

Circulation is now east of Ft lauderdale.

they have put the low east of Miami now...after the 45-minute flash flood warning last night, ended up with another one this morning around 3 and picked up another .75. storm total at 5.9 and showers developing again so 6+ is looking good from this no name storm

[northjaxpro]

The NHC/WPC 06Z position this morning had 90L (1009 mb) just east of Ft. Lauderdale. It was literally within 25 miles of the coast.

[northjaxpro]

People from the N.C. Outer Banks and points north ward need to be making preps and heeding very close attention to the developments of 90L/future Arthur during the next 72 hours. The latest 06Z GFS has this cyclone becoming a very strong tropical storm as it approaches the Outer Banks Monday and the cyclone is depicted making landfall on the New Jersey shore sometime early Tuesday.morning.

[jlauderdal]

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/namsesfcwbg.gif

The NHC/WPC 06Z position this morning had 90L (1009 mb) just east of Ft. Lauderdale. It was literally within 25 miles of the coast.

much closer in than we ever thought it would get and slower, euro has been slower than the gfs for a few days now

[GCANE]

Looks like its firing up just east of West Palm Beach.
Surface winds took a turn to the west and about an hour later a tower starts to popup.
Pressure diving, now at 1008mb.
Sitting directly under the shortwave.
CAPE about 1100.

[GCANE]

Back-to-back towers firing now with good helicity.

[northjaxpro]

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/namsesfcwbg.gif

The NHC/WPC 06Z position this morning had 90L (1009 mb) just east of Ft. Lauderdale. It was literally within 25 miles of the coast.

much closer in than we ever thought it would get and slower, euro has been slower than the gfs for a few days now

Yes I agree. The EURO has always been slower to move 90L off to the northeast than the GFS. I am surprised at just how close to the Southeast Florida coast the Low Pressure area ended up consolidating. This system is also going to traverse much closer to the coast than even I anticipated. There are going to be significant impacts now , especially ftom NC Outer Banks to New England with this feature going into early next week.

Rip currents are going to be very dangerous up and along the coast this weekend, so please be very careful beach goers!!