Texas Spring 2020

[bubba hotep]

Looks like a brief tornado warned cell right at the intersection of the outflow and the dryline storms just south of the Falls.

[rwfromkansas]

Windy outflow in north FW. Temp is diving.

[Cpv17]

Models went from showing 10-15” for me here in SETX to only about 2-3”. Trust me I’m pretty hacked off about it myself. If only there was more blocking in the east to slow down the progression of the low.

10 to 15" inches of rain could flood someones house, why would you be hacked off about not getting that much rain? 2 to 3 inches will help even though it's not a drought buster by any means.

Because I’m a weather enthusiast. I enjoy extreme weather events as long as they don’t do damage. 10 to 15” where I live wouldn’t flood anyone’s house unless it came down in 3-4 hours time. I went through Harvey so I would know. 2 to 3” would barely be enough where I’m at to settle the dust for a couple days. We had 5” here a couple weeks ago and a week later it was completely gone. Couldn’t even tell it rained. I’m in the southern part of SETX. We’re in a drought down here.

While 10-15 inches of rain may not cause flooding in your area, in urban areas such as Houston 10-15 inches can be devastating in the area.

Was I saying for it to happen in your area? No. Houston floods from 3”.

[JDawg512]

I sat out in the back yard watching the storm to the east propagate this way.. More development is occurring overhead and to the south. Lots of lighting right now.

[Cpv17]

Models went from showing 10-15” for me here in SETX to only about 2-3”. Trust me I’m pretty hacked off about it myself. If only there was more blocking in the east to slow down the progression of the low.

10 to 15" inches of rain could flood someones house, why would you be hacked off about not getting that much rain? 2 to 3 inches will help even though it's not a drought buster by any means.

Because I’m a weather enthusiast. I enjoy extreme weather events as long as they don’t do damage. 10 to 15” where I live wouldn’t flood anyone’s house unless it came down in 3-4 hours time. I went through Harvey so I would know. 2 to 3” would barely be enough where I’m at to settle the dust for a couple days. We had 5” here a couple weeks ago and a week later it was completely gone. Couldn’t even tell it rained. I’m in the southern part of SETX. We’re in a drought down here.

I'm also a weather enthusiast and spent a week helping out during Harvey and that was devastating. My point was, that kind of rain even over several days is excessive and would typically cause issues and property loss for a lot of people, especially right now with everything going on is not needed to compound those just getting by. If your location can handle that kind of precipitation then I hope you get whats needed. That being said 2 to 3 inches of rain isn't a drought buster, but is beneficial in helping the situation. I'll cross my fingers for you.[/quote]

I’m not wishing damage on anyone and hope to never see another flooding event like what Harvey did again. 10-15” over a few days or a week would be perfect where I live. That type of rain for me would be awesome because we can handle it. We got 25” during Harvey over 4 days and that was the first time in my life where I actually legitimately got scared and didn’t want it to rain anymore. I just happen to like extreme weather events. I’m obsessed with them if I’m being honest. Like I said though, I don’t want to see damage to anyone’s property.

[bubba hotep]

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 200
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
842 PM EDT Fri May 15 2020

Areas affected...North central Texas and south central Oklahoma

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 160042Z - 160500Z

Summary...Thunderstorms with very heavy rain are expected to
continue through the late evening hours across north central Texas
and southwestern Oklahoma. Training of convection is likely for
some areas and this may lead to flash flooding through midnight
local time.

Discussion...GOES-16 satellite imagery is indicating an MCS merger
over the Red River Valley from a complex earlier this afternoon
over central Oklahoma, and another from west central Texas that
developed ahead of the dry line. This enhanced lift is helping to
generate a new complex of storms over far southwestern Oklahoma
and adjacent portions of northern Texas. An approaching vortmax
and convergent low level flow over the region is also aiding
ascent across this region in the presence of a very unstable
environment characterized by MLCAPE values on the order of
2000-3000+ J/kg based on latest RAP model output.

Another area of interest will be the merger of two well-developed
outflow boundaries from earlier MCS activity, and this will likely
result in another corridor of enhanced rainfall in the general
vicinity of the Interstate 20 corridor. This is depicted well in
the WoFS model that is currently being run across the region.

Flash flooding will become a concern where repeating convective
cores and storm mergers occur. There is a good signal in the high
resolution guidance for localized 3 to 5 inch rainfall amounts,
especially between Abilene, Fort Worth, and Wichita Falls.
Rainfall rates may exceed two inches per hour at times, and this
would be enough to reach flash flood guidance.

Hamrick

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LUB...MAF...OUN...SHV...SJT...TSA...

[Brent]

Lol now the rain is decreasing at least temporarily over here

[South Texas Storms]

What a beautiful sight seeing the radar lit up across much of Texas tonight! Hopefully most areas can see at least an inch or so.

[Cpv17]

Outflow from Houston storms will potentially kill all the instability over Austin and surrounding areas. Be prepared for a let down IMHO. I could be wrong obv

Maybe not! There’s a pretty good storm over the ATX right now!

[bubba hotep]

I35 Special

[Brent]

I35 Special

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EYGuEnKUMAI0kbs?format=jpg&name=small

That is one long watch

[HockeyTx82]

I35 Special

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EYGuEnKUMAI0kbs?format=jpg&name=small

That is one long watch

Everything is bigger in Texas!

[Haris]

Outflow from Houston storms will potentially kill all the instability over Austin and surrounding areas. Be prepared for a let down IMHO. I could be wrong obv

Maybe not! There’s a pretty good storm over the ATX right now!

Yeah sure is. .4” at my place so far. Hoping more tho

[Cpv17]

What a beautiful sight seeing the radar lit up across much of Texas tonight! Hopefully most areas can see at least an inch or so.

I feel like taking a screenshot of the radar over Texas cuz you don’t see this too often lol

[Haris]

Be nice everyone. It’s all right. Weather can drag deep emotions from everyone. It’s ok to vent

[Cpv17]

The HRRR model is quite interesting for north Texas tomorrow.

[Brent]

I don't think the hi-res models have a clue the line totally dies before the metro on the HRRR and NAM

Although most of the rain currently over the metro is weakening so shrugs

Should be noted though there is a ton of rain tomorrow afternoon and evening on them

[TheAustinMan]

Retrograding storm from Bastrop County crossed into the Austin area and stalled over the south side of town, triggering a flash flood warning there. A station in the local mesonet picked up 2" of rain in 30 minutes... yep, that'll do it. Localized 1-2.5" across the south side of Austin extending into the downtown area. It's boundary galore out in Central Texas, and I wouldn't be surprised if some of these pre-line storms helped set up a focus for enhanced rainfalls as the line pulls through in an hour or two.

421 KB. Source: GRAnalyst2

[wxman22]

10 to 15" inches of rain could flood someones house, why would you be hacked off about not getting that much rain? 2 to 3 inches will help even though it's not a drought buster by any means.

Because I’m a weather enthusiast. I enjoy extreme weather events as long as they don’t do damage. 10 to 15” where I live wouldn’t flood anyone’s house unless it came down in 3-4 hours time. I went through Harvey so I would know. 2 to 3” would barely be enough where I’m at to settle the dust for a couple days. We had 5” here a couple weeks ago and a week later it was completely gone. Couldn’t even tell it rained. I’m in the southern part of SETX. We’re in a drought down here.

While 10-15 inches of rain may not cause flooding in your area, in urban areas such as Houston 10-15 inches can be devastating in the area.

Was I saying for it to happen in your area? No. Houston floods from 3”.

Regardless of the area you were referring to it is childish and silly to want 10-15" of rain ANYWHERE!

[tolakram]

Thanks for the reports, and please remember not to reply to abusive posts, just report so we can take care of it. I moved the offensive ones and deleted most of the replies that contained them. Apologies if your posts got deleted, nothing personal, just cleanup.