ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical

[jlauderdal]

Looking at the radar, looks like there is a circulation along the coast of Broward County (Ft Lauderdale) moving north.

Seems to have stalled out at this point...4.87, looking like we can get to 5 since the circulation has stalled

[cycloneye]

More closer to coast.

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri May 15 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential
for tropical or subtropical development off the east coast of
Florida.

1. A broad and elongated area of low pressure located over the Straits
of Florida continues to produce disorganized shower activity and
gusty winds from portions of southern Florida and the northwestern
Bahamas northeastward over the adjacent Atlantic waters. Gradual
development is still expected, and the system is likely to become a
tropical or subtropical depression or storm on Saturday while it
passes the northwestern Bahamas and moves north-northeastward over
the Atlantic waters east of Florida. Later in the weekend and early
next week, the system is expected to move generally northeastward
over the western Atlantic east of the Carolinas.

Regardless of development, the disturbance will continue to bring
heavy rainfall and gusty winds across portions of southeastern
Florida and the northwestern Bahamas through Saturday. In addition,
hazardous marine conditions will continue off the Florida east
coast and in the Bahamas, where Gale Warnings are currently in
effect. Dangerous surf conditions and rip currents are also
possible along portions of the southeast U.S. coast this weekend and
early next week. See products from your local weather office and
High Seas Forecasts for more details. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance tomorrow
morning, if necessary. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on
this system will be issued by 3 AM EDT Saturday morning, or earlier
if needed.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
available on the Web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Berg

[Aric Dunn]

Invest 90L was never forecasted to develop before this weekend when it’s moving away from South Florida and The Bahamas. So it’s behaving as planned!

Even our friend Aric who is a very enthusiastic peep that does good analysis has said from the start of this invest that it would be by the weekend.

yeah, I always watch small scale fluctuations becuase it is more exciting and often are the catalyst for larger intensity and track changes that the models cant predict..

that why you rarely see me say anything past 2 days..

[Aric Dunn]

there is definitely something coming together just east of north key largo..

surface obs are flipping around.. going to be a fun next few hours for people that stay awake

[floridasun78]

look more rain by me now and early today .looking at sat pic look like weak low by miami beach gaving miami more stormy night

[jlauderdal]

there is definitely something coming together just east of north key largo..

surface obs are flipping around.. going to be a fun next few hours for people that stay awake

Just went over 5, not bad for a no name entity

[Do_For_Love]

Keeping an eye on this one...There's rumors we might get some effects from it in the Philly area in the middle of next week. Sounds like some development is anticipated, so we'll see!

[floridasun78]

alot Flood Advisory been issue and warring now their one issue part dade a Flood Advisory

[NDG]

Looking at the vis sat loop before sunset the surface circulation is or was still elongated with no distinct LLC. Surface pressures continue to slowly fall over the FL Straights. As mentioned by the NHC we should see the system getting better organized starting tomorrow as the UL winds starter becoming more conducive.
0z Key West sounding shows a very dry mid to upper level column pushing in from the west, should dry things out over Miami-Dade county tomorrow.

[jlauderdal]

alot Flood Advisory been issue and warring now their one issue part dade a Flood Advisory

We just went under a flash flood warning, 5 inches since midnight and still going

[cycloneye]

New video by Levi Cowan.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

[HurricaneEnzo]

Welp keeps trending towards my area here in Eastern NC. Typical lol, have seen more than a few OTS storms trend West and end up landfalling in my area. You just really never know outside of a 2-3 day window. If this does manage to become a Hurricane and hit here will set the record in NC for earliest Hurricane landfall. Oddly enough 'Arthur' from 2014 is the current record holder it hit July 4th weekend.

Still a lot to be decided but 1 or 2 more adjustments West and it's game on. Wouldn't expect anything less the way 2020 has been going

[Aric Dunn]

Very clear a circ is reforming/being pulled/consolidating. just offshore north key largo.

radar velocities, satellite, and surface obs showing this. convergence is increasing noted by the increased convection near said suspected area..

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=l ... =undefined

[Do_For_Love]

The Levi Cowan video makes it seem like it's not gonna have any impact on this area at all. Wonder why they were mentioning it on the news yesterday...perhaps things have changed or it's gonna have some other type of effect on our weather. Either way, pretty informative, thanks for posting. Will still be interesting to see what kind of development occurs with the system.

[floridasun78]

Very clear a circ is reforming/being pulled/consolidating. just offshore north key largo.

radar velocities, satellite, and surface obs showing this. convergence is increasing noted by the increased convection near said suspected area..

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=l ... =undefined

i notice more stormy now was early today look getting more organized over coast of dade county

[jlauderdal]

Very clear a circ is reforming/being pulled/consolidating. just offshore north key largo.

radar velocities, satellite, and surface obs showing this. convergence is increasing noted by the increased convection near said suspected area..

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=l ... =undefined

The technical details: https://kamala.cod.edu/fl/latest.fxus62.KMFL.html

[Aric Dunn]

Very clear a circ is reforming/being pulled/consolidating. just offshore north key largo.

radar velocities, satellite, and surface obs showing this. convergence is increasing noted by the increased convection near said suspected area..

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=l ... =undefined

The technical details: https://kamala.cod.edu/fl/latest.fxus62.KMFL.html

too many words..

but yes... lol

[jlauderdal]

Very clear a circ is reforming/being pulled/consolidating. just offshore north key largo.

radar velocities, satellite, and surface obs showing this. convergence is increasing noted by the increased convection near said suspected area..

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=l ... =undefined

The technical details: https://kamala.cod.edu/fl/latest.fxus62.KMFL.html

too many words..

but yes... lol

I have seen a ton of discos, this is top 5 in terms of pure meteorological mumble jumble...you have to work very hard to make all that work

5.12 and climbing slowly now

[Aric Dunn]

The technical details: https://kamala.cod.edu/fl/latest.fxus62.KMFL.html

too many words..

but yes... lol

I have seen a ton of discos, this is top 5 in terms of pure meteorological mumble jumble...you have to work very hard to make all that work

5.12 and climbing slowly now

haha well it covered everything well

though by the time you finish writing that much things might have already changed lol.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

Location: 24.8°N 80.2°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: nan kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1012 mb
Radius of Circulation: 180 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 120 NM