Texas Spring 2020

[bubba hotep]

Looks like the MCS moving south through Oklahoma is holding together better than expected. That might reach N.TX before the storms coming off the dryline. The intersection of the MCS and the storms coming in from the West could make for an area of enhanced rainfall totals.

[bubba hotep]

[dhweather]

Looks like the MCS moving south through Oklahoma is holding together better than expected. That might reach N.TX before the storms coming off the dryline. The intersection of the MCS and the storms coming in from the West could make for an area of enhanced rainfall totals.

This morning I looked at the HRRR, and it had the two colliding over north Texas - maybe so

[bubba hotep]

18z HRRRv4

[EnnisTx]

This feels like a broken record for DFW but here we go again... timing of storms isn't great and the CAP, that feels like it hasn't broken since June!, will be in place across DFW. This is a more dynamic system, so we should see better rain coverage than the past couple of systems that saw heavy rain but with relatively low spatial coverage. Then there is the concern that storms that fire in S & C Texas will race out ahead of the northern storms and cut off the moisture feed. Even with this lingering concerns the hi-res models are in pretty good agreement that DFW should see a pretty good rain event with widespread 1 - 2" totals but nothing like the models were showing earlier in the week.

Models went from showing 10-15” for me here in SETX to only about 2-3”. Trust me I’m pretty hacked off about it myself. If only there was more blocking in the east to slow down the progression of the low.

Models went from showing 10-15” for me here in SETX to only about 2-3”. Trust me I’m pretty hacked off about it myself. If only there was more blocking in the east to slow down the progression of the low.[/quote]

10 to 15" inches of rain could flood someones house, why would you be hacked off about not getting that much rain? 2 to 3 inches will help even though it's not a drought buster by any means.

[bubba hotep]

[South Texas Storms]

None of the high-res models are currently handling the ongoing convection well. Pretty much a nowcasting situation today. Let's all hope for a widespread beneficial rainfall event across the state with little to no damage!

[rwfromkansas]

Read the FWD discussion. They seem to think both lines will make it through DFW before dying if I'm reading it correctly. Talk about the heaviest rain to the southeast tomorrow, but if both hit, we still should get good rains in DFW. Their graphic has bumped up timing 2-3 hours as well.

[Cpv17]

This feels like a broken record for DFW but here we go again... timing of storms isn't great and the CAP, that feels like it hasn't broken since June!, will be in place across DFW. This is a more dynamic system, so we should see better rain coverage than the past couple of systems that saw heavy rain but with relatively low spatial coverage. Then there is the concern that storms that fire in S & C Texas will race out ahead of the northern storms and cut off the moisture feed. Even with this lingering concerns the hi-res models are in pretty good agreement that DFW should see a pretty good rain event with widespread 1 - 2" totals but nothing like the models were showing earlier in the week.

Models went from showing 10-15” for me here in SETX to only about 2-3”. Trust me I’m pretty hacked off about it myself. If only there was more blocking in the east to slow down the progression of the low.

Models went from showing 10-15” for me here in SETX to only about 2-3”. Trust me I’m pretty hacked off about it myself. If only there was more blocking in the east to slow down the progression of the low.

10 to 15" inches of rain could flood someones house, why would you be hacked off about not getting that much rain? 2 to 3 inches will help even though it's not a drought buster by any means.[/quote]

Because I’m a weather enthusiast. I enjoy extreme weather events as long as they don’t do damage. 10 to 15” where I live wouldn’t flood anyone’s house unless it came down in 3-4 hours time. I went through Harvey so I would know. 2 to 3” would barely be enough where I’m at to settle the dust for a couple days. We had 5” here a couple weeks ago and a week later it was completely gone. Couldn’t even tell it rained. I’m in the southern part of SETX. We’re in a drought down here.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

5.5" in 2 1/2 hours in Sugar Land. Htown baby, no other place like it.

[EnnisTx]

Models went from showing 10-15” for me here in SETX to only about 2-3”. Trust me I’m pretty hacked off about it myself. If only there was more blocking in the east to slow down the progression of the low.

Models went from showing 10-15” for me here in SETX to only about 2-3”. Trust me I’m pretty hacked off about it myself. If only there was more blocking in the east to slow down the progression of the low.

10 to 15" inches of rain could flood someones house, why would you be hacked off about not getting that much rain? 2 to 3 inches will help even though it's not a drought buster by any means.

Because I’m a weather enthusiast. I enjoy extreme weather events as long as they don’t do damage. 10 to 15” where I live wouldn’t flood anyone’s house unless it came down in 3-4 hours time. I went through Harvey so I would know. 2 to 3” would barely be enough where I’m at to settle the dust for a couple days. We had 5” here a couple weeks ago and a week later it was completely gone. Couldn’t even tell it rained. I’m in the southern part of SETX. We’re in a drought down here.[/quote]


I'm also a weather enthusiast and spent a week helping out during Harvey and that was devastating. My point was, that kind of rain even over several days is excessive and would typically cause issues and property loss for a lot of people, especially right now with everything going on is not needed to compound those just getting by. If your location can handle that kind of precipitation then I hope you get whats needed. That being said 2 to 3 inches of rain isn't a drought buster, but is beneficial in helping the situation. I'll cross my fingers for you.

[EnnisTx]

Those storms out in West Texas aren't moving much, looks like they could have some flash flooding issues out there soon.

[Haris]

Outflow from Houston storms will potentially kill all the instability over Austin and surrounding areas. Be prepared for a let down IMHO. I could be wrong obv

[bubba hotep]

Closing in from all directions!

[bubba hotep]

Outflow from Houston storms will potentially kill all the instability over Austin and surrounding areas. Be prepared for a let down IMHO. I could be wrong obv

The hi-res models seem to capture that outflow and mix it out as it surges westward. However, it looks pretty impressive on sat.

[wxman22]

Models went from showing 10-15” for me here in SETX to only about 2-3”. Trust me I’m pretty hacked off about it myself. If only there was more blocking in the east to slow down the progression of the low.

Models went from showing 10-15” for me here in SETX to only about 2-3”. Trust me I’m pretty hacked off about it myself. If only there was more blocking in the east to slow down the progression of the low.

10 to 15" inches of rain could flood someones house, why would you be hacked off about not getting that much rain? 2 to 3 inches will help even though it's not a drought buster by any means.

Because I’m a weather enthusiast. I enjoy extreme weather events as long as they don’t do damage. 10 to 15” where I live wouldn’t flood anyone’s house unless it came down in 3-4 hours time. I went through Harvey so I would know. 2 to 3” would barely be enough where I’m at to settle the dust for a couple days. We had 5” here a couple weeks ago and a week later it was completely gone. Couldn’t even tell it rained. I’m in the southern part of SETX. We’re in a drought down here.

While 10-15 inches of rain may not cause flooding in your area, in urban areas such as Houston 10-15 inches can be devastating in the area.

[Brent]

it looks like its only a matter of time til heavy rain spreads into the metro... its been growing southward out of Oklahoma but very little motion overall which could spell flooding

[bubba hotep]

Chilly outflow through MBY... Hopefully, this isn't too stabilizing and we can get rain later on.

[bubba hotep]

About to get a merger over DFW

[Brent]

Heavy rain starting here it's coming from 3 angles

I would say the severe threat is probably gonna be quite low at least