Texas Spring 2020

[Cpv17]

GFS is now a lot drier too

[TheProfessor]

The GFS trended towards the Euro with the cut-off low being further north and more progressive. Great news for those of us who still need rain in southern Louisiana, but not so great for southeast Texas if that were to happen.

[davidiowx]

The GFS trended towards the Euro with the cut-off low being further north and more progressive. Great news for those of us who still need rain in southern Louisiana, but not so great for southeast Texas if that were to happen.

Yeah and we need it down here baddd

[South Texas Storms]

A surprise MCS bringing SA some much needed rainfall early this morning makes South Texas Storms a happy and thankful guy!

[Cpv17]

A surprise MCS bringing SA some much needed rainfall early this morning makes South Texas Storms a happy and thankful guy!

The models are really struggling right now.

[dhweather]

I never really trust the models on precip maps more than 120 hours out, but nice to see.

Words of wisdom.

[vbhoutex]

From Jeff Lindner:

A strong storm system will affect TX Friday-Sunday

Today-Friday:

Overnight short wave that resulted in widespread west TX severe weather is approaching SE TX in a weakened state this morning. A surge of Gulf moisture into the area this morning is resulting in a few scattered showers moving northward. As the remains of the overnight activity approach today, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible. Scattered showers will be possible again on Friday afternoon, but much better chances for storms and heavy rainfall arrive on Saturday.

Will start with the good news for the weekend system and that is models are trending toward a faster moving weather system and no longer stall the upper level low over TX. With that said, the threat for heavy to excessive rainfall in the Saturday-early Sunday period remains.

An upper level short wave trough will move into west TX and close off into an upper level low over central TX on Friday night into Saturday. The upper level winds over SC and SE TX become strongly divergent early Saturday while at the surface strong southerly winds will transport a tropical air mass into the area. PWS (moisture) values will increase toward 2.1 inches by early Saturday morning and the atmosphere will become increasingly saturated. Storm motions will also become slower as the upper level system forms over central TX on Saturday. Models have also introduced a surface front into the mix this morning (a surface boundary was one of the parameters that had been missing to help focus heavy rainfall in previous runs) that slides slowly across the area Saturday into Sunday

Expect a line or complex of slow moving thunderstorms to move across SE TX Saturday starting out west in the morning and spreading across the area throughout the day. There will be a low severe threat with this activity, but the main threat will be heavy rainfall.

Rainfall Amounts:

Models have shifted the axis of heavy rainfall into SE TX overnight from central TX with widespread amounts of 2-4 inches and isolated totals of 4-6 inches possible. The heaviest rainfall appears to occur along and north of I-10, but small details in storm motion, cell training, and the position and movement of a frontal boundary will determine where the greatest rains fall. WPC has place all of SE TX in a slight risk for excessive rainfall. Current forecasted rainfall amounts are likely to change over the next 24-48 hours.

Sunday Onward:

Showers and thunderstorms will likely still be ongoing Sunday morning, but gradually shifting eastward. With the upper level system now appearing to have more forward speed, a drier air mass should begin to filter into the region on Sunday starting to limit rain chances. Confidence in this part of the forecast is not high

[TheProfessor]

We've been getting another good hit today in southern La. Hopefully you southeast and south Texas folks can cash in this weekend.

[TheProfessor]

Um wow, things got crazy here.

[cheezyWXguy]

Um wow, things got crazy here.

There was a brief tornado debris signature on cc northwest of madisonville, la a few minutes ago. You guys aren’t even under a marginal risk today!

[TheProfessor]

Um wow, things got crazy here.

There was a brief tornado debris signature on cc northwest of madisonville, la a few minutes ago. You guys aren’t even under a marginal risk today!

Yeah that CC signature was about 5 minutes from my house. And yeah we just had a see text. This is why you have to be ready during any storm threat.

[TheProfessor]

We're approaching 8 inches of rain here via radar estimate, some areas just to my west have 10 inches on radar estimates.

[TheProfessor]

8-12" has fallen according to LIX and it's still coming down. There's flooding going on in my neighborhood right now. Someone drove through a garage because their brakes stopped working due to the water.

[TheProfessor]

16" of rain was recorded 4 miles west of me. Insane!

[Cpv17]

16" of rain was recorded 4 miles west of me. Insane!

Bro that wasn’t in the forecast, that’s for sure. Same thing happened yesterday around Beaumont. I feel like it could happen somewhere again today wherever the boundaries are.

[PTrackerLA]

16" of rain was recorded 4 miles west of me. Insane!

Bro that wasn’t in the forecast, that’s for sure. Same thing happened yesterday around Beaumont. I feel like it could happen somewhere again today wherever the boundaries are.

Received over 4" in Lafayette, some spots 6"-8"! Biggest rain of the year by far which was definitely not in the forecast. That was a crazy setup for the north shore last night!

[bubba hotep]

This feels like a broken record for DFW but here we go again... timing of storms isn't great and the CAP, that feels like it hasn't broken since June!, will be in place across DFW. This is a more dynamic system, so we should see better rain coverage than the past couple of systems that saw heavy rain but with relatively low spatial coverage. Then there is the concern that storms that fire in S & C Texas will race out ahead of the northern storms and cut off the moisture feed. Even with this lingering concerns the hi-res models are in pretty good agreement that DFW should see a pretty good rain event with widespread 1 - 2" totals but nothing like the models were showing earlier in the week.

[bubba hotep]

[Cpv17]

This feels like a broken record for DFW but here we go again... timing of storms isn't great and the CAP, that feels like it hasn't broken since June!, will be in place across DFW. This is a more dynamic system, so we should see better rain coverage than the past couple of systems that saw heavy rain but with relatively low spatial coverage. Then there is the concern that storms that fire in S & C Texas will race out ahead of the northern storms and cut off the moisture feed. Even with this lingering concerns the hi-res models are in pretty good agreement that DFW should see a pretty good rain event with widespread 1 - 2" totals but nothing like the models were showing earlier in the week.

Models went from showing 10-15” for me here in SETX to only about 2-3”. Trust me I’m pretty hacked off about it myself. If only there was more blocking in the east to slow down the progression of the low.

[rwfromkansas]

Why is the cap harder to break this year? Frustrating.