ATL: ARTHUR - Models
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ATL: ARTHUR - Models
Only model runs here.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
Well at least now the models have a good starting point
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
Aric Dunn wrote:Well at least now the models have a good starting point
And that begins at 18z runs but mostly on 00z that has more data.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
As others have stated, since there are quite a few mesoscale features and processes currently occurring, mesoscale models (NAM, RGEM, HR, etc.) offer a "clearer" picture of what is going on in terms of genesis (which affects short term track). Global models (like the GFS, ECMWF, UKMET, etc.) have a difficult time (due to their spatial resolutions) of "seeing" these meso features, so it can be difficult for them to accurately forecast area of genesis (although the large scale steering features are more accurately depicted). Having an initialization point (with 90L now being designated), will certainly help, but I would definitely recommend expanding the bag of model tools for forecasting this system.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
USTropics wrote:As others have stated, since there are quite a few mesoscale features and processes currently occurring, mesoscale models (NAM, RGEM, HR, etc.) offer a "clearer" picture of what is going on. Global models (like the GFS, ECMWF, UKMET, etc.) have a difficult time (due to their spatial resolutions) of "seeing" these meso features, so it can be difficult for them to accurately forecast area of genesis. Having an initialization point (with 90L now being designated), will certainly help, but I would definitely recommend expanding the bag of model tools for forecasting this system.
Oh definitely.. RGEM has been doing quite well with it. HRR was up until about the 10z run for some reason. WRF-NNM has been handling it well too.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
It wouldn’t be hurricane season without the NAM blowing every storm it sees up into a formidable hurricane.
https://twitter.com/alexlubbers2/status/1261038632812417024
https://twitter.com/alexlubbers2/status/1261038632812417024
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
key thing to take out of the NAM is how much weaker that short wave is.. .. it is barely even there on this run.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1418&fh=78
toggle between 12z and 18z..
pretty interesting change in the synoptics.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1418&fh=78
toggle between 12z and 18z..
pretty interesting change in the synoptics.
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ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion
18z Euro initializes a surface circ just inland or on the coast. which given the current data does seem to be possible.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
TheStormExpert wrote:It wouldn’t be hurricane season without the NAM blowing every storm it sees up into a formidable hurricane.
https://twitter.com/alexlubbers2/status/1261038632812417024
So how badly did it overestimate Barry?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
aspen wrote:TheStormExpert wrote:It wouldn’t be hurricane season without the NAM blowing every storm it sees up into a formidable hurricane.
https://twitter.com/alexlubbers2/status/1261038632812417024
So how badly did it overestimate Barry?
Wasn’t it forecasting Barry last year to be a Cat.3?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
TheStormExpert wrote:It wouldn’t be hurricane season without the NAM blowing every storm it sees up into a formidable hurricane.
https://twitter.com/alexlubbers2/status/1261038632812417024
Gotta love gettin NAM'D
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
look like weak low will kiss miami as move ne toward bahamascycloneye wrote:https://i.imgur.com/qEO4GDE.jpg
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
00z GFS is weaker than past runs.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
00z ECMWF.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
3 km NAM continues with its crazy idea of turning 90L into a hurricane
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
This is a particular interesting 15z run of a version of the HRR mesoscale.
it lines up well with the current convective pattern and momentum of the vorticities.. I think the south florida people will like this..
it lines up well with the current convective pattern and momentum of the vorticities.. I think the south florida people will like this..
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
12z GFS has shifted west quite a bit and aligns well with loop I posted above now.
in the long term. gfs looks like a SC to NC landfall
in the long term. gfs looks like a SC to NC landfall
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
NDG wrote:3 km NAM continues with its crazy idea of turning 90L into a hurricane
https://i.imgur.com/epHXOwN.png
What would be crazier, this developing into a hurricane or NAM accurately out-forcasting all other models. I'd say "both" but NAM Tropical Wizardry???
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
Umm,a little more higher in intensity from the bams with HWRF the highest.
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