(Sub)Tropical development likely near the Bahamas: (Invest 90L thread is up)

[floridasun78]

all weatherman here in miami say will likely form weak low east of keys and get stronger to ne of bahamas

[Nancy Smar]

494
ABNT20 KNHC 132324
TWOAT

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
725 PM EDT Wed May 13 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential
for subtropical development this weekend northeast of the Bahamas.

A broad area of low pressure is expected to develop in a couple of
days near or just north of the Bahamas. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a
subtropical depression or storm is likely to form this weekend. The
system is expected to move generally northeastward over the western
Atlantic through early next week. The next Special Tropical Weather
Outlook on this system will be issued by 9 AM EDT Thursday, or
earlier, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Evening

If you look close on radar I see showers siding from the NE to the SW, but then also see showers off of Cuba moving NE.

[Aric Dunn]

18z gfs has that clipper system dropping nearly off the coast of SC/NC border.. tad south of your usual track for high latitude systems lol.. not a likely scenario..

[SFLcane]

Circulation / low level / north of western Cuba.

[Aric Dunn]

18z Euro from 24hr to 48 hrs. so this time tomorrow should be seeing some closing off. sheared of course...

real question is where it closes off...

[Aric Dunn]

Here is why the Ukmet is so much farther east then most of the models.. it has some energy/wave come from off of Hispaniola and closes off way east of everything else.

[EquusStorm]

It's fascinating that preseason activity has become almost an expectation. Went most of the 80s, 90s, and early 00s with almost none.

[SFLcane]

18z Euro from 24hr to 48 hrs. so this time tomorrow should be seeing some closing off. sheared of course...

real question is where it closes off...

https://i.ibb.co/YtvSpxH/modezrpd-20200517-1200-animation.gif

Aric, can you post the precipitation/reflectivity loop of the 18z euro?

[Aric Dunn]

18z Euro from 24hr to 48 hrs. so this time tomorrow should be seeing some closing off. sheared of course...

real question is where it closes off...

https://i.ibb.co/YtvSpxH/modezrpd-20200517-1200-animation.gif

Aric, can you post the precipitation/reflectivity loop of the 18z euro?

total accum is roughtly 1-3 inches for most of Se florida.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Lite rain here in Key Largo most of the evening.

[Aric Dunn]

Some decent midlevel rotation starting north of western side of Cuba on radar tomorrow will be fun.

[Aric Dunn]

If it does start to come together that far west this early then timing will change a good deal.

Also looks like rain will overspread the keys and south florida more now and sooner

[cycloneye]

[SFLcane]

If it does start to come together that far west this early then timing will change a good deal.

Also looks like rain will overspread the keys and south florida more now and sooner

Maybe..00z gfs has this low sliding south of the peninsula with minimal rainfall across the mainland. Looks like a non event based on the last few model runs.

[BadLarry95]

Arthur Memes are primed and ready to go!

[GCANE]

Much stronger TPW now, in and around the Straits.

UL Vort / 355K PV also diminshing in the same area.

[GCANE]

A short duration, high helicity tower fired just off shore of Cuba.
However, shear blew it apart.
The station, indicated by the arrow, later measured a NW wind.
Obviously the tower momentarily pushed a small vort to the surface.

[GCANE]

Some broad, low-level rotation may be developing half way between Key West and Havana.

[GCANE]

06Z GFS just out.
Has this initialized now as a 1013mb surface low at +6 hr just off shore of Cuba.
18 hrs out and down to 1007mb, still just off shore of Cuba.

Looking at satellite, this may spin up today.
Especially keeping an eye on the possible development of low-level rotation in the middle of the Straits.