(Sub)Tropical development likely near the Bahamas: (Invest 90L thread is up)

[cycloneye]

Since it got mentioned in the WPC discussion I am making this thread for the area that the models are showing in different scenarios after the 15th. Let's see how this evolves.



https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussio ... isc=pmdepd

[gatorcane]

Definitely looks like a possibility and climo suggests it is possible as well. This is a reminder the hurricane season is almost here.

We can see the frontal system that eventually contributes to possible genesis:

[USTropics]

Chances have increased some with tonight's model runs, with the 00z ECMWF operational showing moderate strengthening now:



00z GFS has more of a stretched out axis with various areas of low pressure:


You can see in the loop of ECMWF, GFS, UKMET, and ICON 850mb vort for Saturday evening, the closer the consolidation of vorticity to the Gulf Stream (such as the ECMWF), the better chance this has of developing:


00z UKMET track with SST overlay:


NCEP ensembles have slightly increased, up to a 60% chance of some type of development:

[GCANE]

Latest GFS shows it a solid warm core up to about 30N

[GCANE]

GFS Run-to-Run

Improving chances for development in terms of less inhibition of 355K PV and the negative-tilted shortwave strengthening along the stalled TPW front.

[GCANE]

TPW is just starting to settle in now.
Front will beging to stall out in the Bahamas over the next few days.

[aspen]

The most recent GFS, Euro, CMC, NAVGEM, and ICON runs have all come to a consensus on a TC or STC forming around the Bahamas on Saturday or early Sunday. Surprisingly, the Euro seems the most aggressive, and has it meander around for longer than the other models do.

[Kazmit]

Euro is stronger and takes it on a Humberto-esque track.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1260202971478069248

[Shell Mound]

https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1260202971478069248

Informative follow-up by Andy Hazelton:
 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1260203682613862402



Furthermore:
 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1260187358709899265



 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1260187361155170304



 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1260190782327267328

[cycloneye]

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 AM EDT Tue May 12 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential
for subtropical development this weekend northeast of the Bahamas.

1. An area of low pressure is expected to develop this weekend
a couple hundred miles northeast of the Bahamas. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for this system to acquire some
subtropical characteristics as it moves northeastward through
Sunday. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system
will be issued by 9 PM EDT Tuesday, or earlier, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Latto

[DioBrando]

Euro is stronger and takes it on a Humberto-esque track.

https://i.imgur.com/2xPsiUn.png

what if it blows up into a category 3

[NDG]

Ladies and gents start your engines.
This will be the 6th year in a row to get a named system in the Atlantic before June 1st if indeed models are correct

[DioBrando]

Ladies and gents start your engines.
This will be the 6th year in a row to get a named system in the Atlantic before June 1st if indeed models are correct

i wonder what the analog systems are

[GCANE]

[Dylan]

 https://twitter.com/dylanfedericowx/status/1260216723510362114

[TheStormExpert]

Ladies and gents start your engines.
This will be the 6th year in a row to get a named system in the Atlantic before June 1st if indeed models are correct

Why doesn’t this surprise me at all?

[plasticup]

Euro is stronger and takes it on a Humberto-esque track.

https://i.imgur.com/2xPsiUn.png

Without the strength, thank god. We just finished repairs a couple of months ago

[DioBrando]

Euro is stronger and takes it on a Humberto-esque track.

https://i.imgur.com/2xPsiUn.png

Without the strength, thank god. We just finished repairs a couple of months ago

i was legit scared because i thought this thing might actually pull a humberto last night especially with the waters being roasty toasty and getting toastier...
how likely would this scenario play out?

[CyclonicFury]

Euro is stronger and takes it on a Humberto-esque track.

https://i.imgur.com/2xPsiUn.png

Without the strength, thank god. We just finished repairs a couple of months ago

i was legit scared because i thought this thing might actually pull a humberto last night especially with the waters being roasty toasty and getting toastier...
how likely would this scenario play out?

Very unlikely. It's May, not September. The track may be similar, but the SSTs are much colder than they were for Humberto.