Texas Winter 2019-2020

[gpsnowman]

Looking ahead, next week looks wet. Some areas could see their average monthly rainfall in a matter of a few days around the middle part of the week. I'm looking forward to that!

Me too. Small rain chances Sunday/Monday then the middle of the week looks quite wet for a large portion of the state. Below average temps during the day but nothing really cold. Waiting for the next big winter event.

[TheProfessor]

I feel bad for the DFW folks who missed out on snow, but I'm happy to see a lot of Texans got to see the white stuff this week.

[Yukon Cornelius]

So, when’s the next one?

[Brent]

if you like rain... next week is your week

Unfortunately I don't see much cold air

[TheProfessor]

All the global models are quite concerning when it comes to heavy rain over the Mississippi river basin over the next coming weeks. The Canadian and Euro really extend the heavy rainfaill into East Texas. The GFS and and Canadian are further south with the heavy rains and inundate the same areas in the southeast with high QPF again. Will be interesting to see what happens as it could impact the weather down the road this Spring.

[Yukon Cornelius]

if you like rain... next week is your week

Unfortunately I don't see much cold air

Next week is definitely not my week then. Hopefully the cold will show up sometime soon again.

[wxman57]

if you like rain... next week is your week

Unfortunately I don't see much cold air

Next week is definitely not my week then. Hopefully the cold will show up sometime soon again.

GFS has snow south of Wichita Falls Tuesday night.

[somethingfunny]

Well South Texas Storms, in terms of accurate models for this event for my part of the state ... the RGEM delivered. You were right. Both the RGEM and the Euro were the only models to accurately capture what occurred in south central Texas. King Euro and Prince RGEM reign.

I'm taken aback by the fact that it has snowed in Austin three times in the last two years. Now, the snowfalls haven't amounted to much but some eye candy but heck ... beggars can't be choosers. Now we need to get our Metroplex friends the snow they are desperate for!

YES!!!! I NEEEED SNOWWWWW. Real snow. Inches.. PLllllleasee
Even the "snow" most saw in Jan here in DFW I was down in Comfort and missed out on.
I don't want to see 2 inches of ice again but come back Feb of 2011... or even this mythical Feb of what was it 08? I keep hearing about.. just before I moved here.

The wife won't let us go on vacation to anywhere with snow.. so I'm stuck watching the models.. and slipping on my butt when lucy pulls the football.. even though I've learned to hold out until within 48 hours.. but my heart doesn't listen to the brain...and I run towards that football.. IT"S GONNNNNNAAAAA SNOOOOOOOWWW...whooosh..whiff... nothing.

Though when I saw the Austin news I came looking for your post... so happy you got to enjoy a splash of that stuff.

February 11, 2010, I wasn't here then either but a foot in DFW 10 years next week heck even March 2015 when we saw 3-4 inches(the last real snow)...

It seems unfathomable now when we can't even get a half inch

Between the 09-10 and 10-11 winters we had nearly 2 feet of snow total spread across 4 or 5 systems, another few inches in the 11-12 season too. DFW averages 1 inch of snow per winter. Obviously there's no such thing as being "due" for any type of weather "because of climate averages" but I'm just saying.... We could go two decades without snow and still be right on target over the periodic average.

[orangeblood]

EPO just isn't cooperating this winter, really unfortunate!!! The good news is that the pattern is allowing for a massive build up of Arctic Sea Ice, approaching the highest sea ice extent in 15 years!

[cheezyWXguy]

EPO just isn't cooperating this winter, really unfortunate!!! The good news is that the pattern is allowing for a massive build up of Arctic Sea Ice, approaching the highest sea ice extent in 15 years!

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/images/4indices.png

Don’t we want a -EPO?

[orangeblood]

EPO just isn't cooperating this winter, really unfortunate!!! The good news is that the pattern is allowing for a massive build up of Arctic Sea Ice, approaching the highest sea ice extent in 15 years!

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/images/4indices.png

Don’t we want a -EPO?

haha yes, we do (sorry for the confusion)...the link has since updated (prior went positive) so maybe a more promising trend. However, the Euro ENS goes positive after Feb 12th. For any sustained decent cold, need a strong - EPO

[cheezyWXguy]

EPO just isn't cooperating this winter, really unfortunate!!! The good news is that the pattern is allowing for a massive build up of Arctic Sea Ice, approaching the highest sea ice extent in 15 years!

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/images/4indices.png

Don’t we want a -EPO?

haha yes, we do (sorry for the confusion)...the link has since updated (prior went positive) so maybe a more promising trend. However, the Euro ENS goes positive after Feb 12th. For any sustained decent cold, need a strong - EPO

Gotcha. The GFS seems to show a more favorable patter, is still holding onto the idea of the Feb 17 storm system, but is very inconsistent on its track. Hopefully if finds something good to latch onto, but I don’t like that it’s at odds with the euro.

[bubba hotep]

I might end up stranded in New Mexico next week! lol

[Ralph's Weather]

I might end up stranded in New Mexico next week! lol

That looks like a classic I-40 blizzard my family has been stranded along that route many times in the 40 or so years they have had their place up in the mountains. If stranded Santa Rosa is probably the most pleasant town to be stuck in along I-40 between Albuquerque and Amarillo.

[wxman57]

Big snow event for DFW in just 12 days!

[Cerlin]

Big snow event for DFW in just 12 days!

That would be a good birthday present.

[cheezyWXguy]

Big snow event for DFW in just 12 days!

You heard it here first, everyone

[gpsnowman]

Big snow event for DFW in just 12 days!

You heard it here first, everyone

It is a reverse jinx. It will actually happen now.

[dhweather]

Big snow event for DFW in just 12 days!

and in 4,320 hours there's a CAT 5 IN THE GULF !!!!!

[weatherdude1108]

Great pattern for rain! We need it as we approach the Spring months to get those roots nourished.

000
FXUS64 KEWX 072053
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
253 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2020

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night)...
After a cold morning start a large diurnal swing in temperatures has
occurred across South Central Texas this afternoon, given the dry
airmass in place, mostly clear skies and southwest to west-northwest
downsloping flow. An impressive 40-45+ deg temperature swing from
morning low to afternoon high temperatures has occurred in some
locations. We will again seen a large drop in temperatures tonight,
although not as low as last night.

A shallow moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico is forecast to
arrive back into southern areas early Saturday morning and spread
north and northeast through the day. We should see a return of low
clouds in the morning and into the early afternoon from south to
north, along and east of the I-35 corridor. Slightly cooler for high
temperatures tomorrow across central and eastern areas, where the
low level moisture return is taking place.

The southerly low level flow and moisture depth will steadily
increase late Saturday night into Sunday morning. This should allow
patchy rain and drizzle to develop along and north of the escarpment
early Sunday morning. Much warmer overnight lows Saturday night into
Sunday morning given the moisture return and southerly winds.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
The weather pattern will become increasingly active across south
central Texas as we head into early next week. On Sunday, southerly
flow in the low-levels will result in increasing moisture levels
across all areas. Some morning fog and drizzle can be expected across
most of the region through mid-morning Sunday. To our west, a deep
upper low will be dropping southward into California. Ahead of this
upper low, we will see increasing southwest flow aloft across Texas.
A subtropical jet will set up across the central and southern
portions of the state. This will result in rain chances returning to
most areas Sunday morning, except along the Rio Grande. The models
continue to indicate some elevated instability and we will continue
to forecast thunderstorms on Sunday for areas east of Highway 83. A
cold front will approach from the north late Sunday night into early
Monday, resulting in an increase in rain chances for all areas for
the mentioned time period. With plenty of cloud cover, rain chances
and cold air advection in the low-levels, we will opt to lower
forecast highs on Monday. Cold air continues to build in from the
north on Tuesday and with the approaching upper low and subtropical
jet aloft, we will likely see more scattered showers and
thunderstorms on Tuesday.

As the upper level system approaches the region during the middle of
the upcoming work week, the medium range models begin to diverge in
handling the overall structure and speed of this system. The ECMWF
shows more of a slower, closed low moving in across west Texas on
Wednesday, while the GFS depicts an open trough and faster eastward
progression. This will certainly have impacts on our rain chances
through mid-week, but as of now we will maintain continuity with the
previous forecast and show the higher chances Tuesday night into
Wednesday. If this system slows down, we may need to extend higher
rain chances into Thursday, especially along and east of the I-35
corridor. Until a clearer model solution appears, we will show a
decrease in rain chances from west to east beginning Thursday. As
for expected rainfall totals with this event (Sunday through
Thursday), we should are currently forecasting average amounts around
1/2" along the Rio Grande, with amounts ramping up fairly quickly as
you head east into the southern Edwards Plateau, Hill Country and
I-35 corridor (1-2"). Some 2-2.5" amounts are possible for our
northeastern counties, including Williamson, Travis, Bastrop and Lee.
while these amounts will likely change with future model runs, there
is good support from the ECMWF and GEFS Ensemble precipitation
amounts. This would certainly be beneficial to south central Texas
given the ongoing drought conditions.

Dry weather is currently anticipated for Friday with highs close to
climatological normals. Looking just beyond the range of the
current forecast period shows an active weather pattern is likely to
continue across the southern plains states.