Texas Winter 2019-2020

[EnnisTx]

NWS FW
Uncertainties:
There is still uncertainty as to how far east the band of sleet
tonight/Wednesday morning will develop and how much snow will
accumulate behind this line. The other large uncertainty is how
far east the diving line between wintry precip/rain will be
Wednesday.

Additional details regarding precip amounts and precip types will
largely come into focus over the next 12-24 hours.


Meteorological Details:
Today...A cold front is currently analyzed along the Red River and
will make its way south across North and Central Texas today.
Gusty south winds ahead of the front are transporting a warm/humid
air mass north with mid to upper 60 degree temperatures currently
observed across the region. Not much of a cool down tonight is
expected as widespread cloud cover and scattered precipitation
continue due to a weak leading shortwave trough moving through. As
this trough continues east today, most of the precip will come to
and end with any lingering precip remaining along the leading edge
of the cold front. Surface dew points in the mid 60s ahead of the
front should help allow MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg to develop, which
when combined with the strong forced ascent in the low levels,
should develop at least isolated showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon east of I-35 and south of I-20. A few strong
thunderstorms are possible, however, meager lapse rates aloft
will keep the severe threat at bay.

Tonight...The cold front and shallow cold air mass will have made
its way all the way through Central Texas by sunset. A potent
shortwave trough will eject out of the Desert SW in the early
evening hours...developing an area of elevated precip across West
Texas and Big County. This will move into our far western counties
before midnight. A brief period of rain is possible, but a rather
quick change over to sleet and snow is likely for the areas west of
Highway 281. The changeover will take a bit more time between
Highway 281 and I-35, however, as previously mentioned, we expect
a convective band of sleet to develop around/after midnight. This
band is due to steepening lapse rates aloft and increasing MUCAPE
forecast to develop overtop of the cold air mass. This will allow
the sounding to "wet bulb" near freezing, and the thermal profiles
favor accumulating sleet to develop. To the west of this band of
sleet, a total change over to snow is expected. Synoptically
speaking...this band should reside between the leading edge of the
H850 front to the south and the secondary H850 thermal gradient to
the north, where frontogenesis is favored. Where these two
boundaries settle will have to be closely monitored since it
will have large implications on the forecast.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night...The shortwave trough will continue
east by the afternoon, and increased frontogenesis will then drive
the secondary H850 thermal gradient through the area Wednesday,
further reinforcing the cold air aloft. While the heaviest precip
will occur before noon Wednesday ahead of the shortwave, any
lingering precip should gradually change over to snow by the evening
hours. Recent trends have indicated yet another shortwave trough
moving through South Central Texas Wednesday night, bringing an
enhanced band of rain/snow to Central and East Texas. Little to no
accumulation is expected with this time due to the fast moving
nature of this shortwave. This too, will have to be monitored over
the next day or so.

Bonnette

[wxman57]

No change in this morning's model runs. Winter precip should mostly remain west of the D-FW Metroplex, though the Metroplex may see some sleet pellets and possibly even a snowflake tomorrow afternoon as the precip ends. If you want to see snow on the ground then you need to head west, maybe to Mineral Wells (I chased severe thunderstorms there in 1979...). Maybe up to Wichita Falls. I rode the Hotter 'n' Hell Century there in 1989, though I found the weather more pleasant than hot in August of 1989.

[CaptinCrunch]

it's currently 45F at DFW as of 10am, the forecast timing of the front vs current placement/temp is further East and colder, NSW office had 47F by 1pm at the airport.

[Cerlin]

it's currently 45F at DFW as of 10am, the forecast timing of the front vs current placement/temp is further East and colder, NSW office had 47F by 1pm at the airport.

I think it’s shallower though, unfortunately. Not as deep as an airmass so I expect cold to not be as cold and sustained.

[orangeblood]

Geez, Deja Vu almost exactly 1 week from now on the GFS. Maybe a little more colder air to work with next week ???

[CaptinCrunch]

it's currently 45F at DFW as of 10am, the forecast timing of the front vs current placement/temp is further East and colder, NSW office had 47F by 1pm at the airport.

I think it’s shallower though, unfortunately. Not as deep as an airmass so I expect cold to not be as cold and sustained.

It's 42F here DTW FTW @10:34am, mid 30's by the time I head out @ 5pm. The noon and 6pm models runs are going to be important as to just how shallow the cold is and how much of a warm nose we will get. The over night low was forecast at 33F, we may be 1 or 2 degrees colder at the surface, that would mean possible frz rain over night across areas west of I-35 (Tarrant and Denton counties)

[Brent]

Geez, Deja Vu almost exactly 1 week from now on the GFS. Maybe a little more colder air to work with next week ???

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020020412/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_32.png

The GFS is dead to me after this "storm" if the euro doesn't show it hang it up

[orangeblood]

Geez, Deja Vu almost exactly 1 week from now on the GFS. Maybe a little more colder air to work with next week ???

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020020412/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_32.png

The GFS is dead to me after this "storm" if the euro doesn't show it hang it up

It was the first to sniff this one out though (almost 2-3 days before Euro)....yes it appears to have a somewhat cold bias but was only off by 50-100 miles from almost a week out, impressive in my book!!! Inside of 120 hrs, go with the Euro...outside of that, I've preferred the GFS for pattern recognition

[Ralph's Weather]

The front is now past Terrell and into NW Wood county. Even here in E TX it will in the 40s by the time I head home this evening. Amazing how the globals underestimate the speed of cold fronts. GFS didn't start to catch on until 0Z last night. The Canadian still hasn't figured it out, 12Z today has the front still in Dallas right now. There is a reason we shift to the NAM when within 72 hours for frontal placement.

[TheProfessor]

Welp, we have a Margaret Hamilton Nose forming tomorrow morning for DFW....not good, fun model watching run but I believe it's time to throw in the towel for Tarrant/Dallas/Collin. Moving on to the next one, EPO tank with an extreme - PNA; additional ice storm potential over the next few weeks ??

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/images/4indices.png

If the PNA went that negative along with the NAO going that positive ignoring the EPO I'd imagine the trough would set up too far west and the threat would be severe weather. However, with the EPO going negative it would depend on where the Alaskan ridge sets up. If it's further west, again, I'd expect severe weather to be a concern at least somewhere in the southern plains. If you can get it further east though, then yes, an ice storm becomes a possible scenario. I'd personally like to see the NAO closer to neutral, when the south east ridge starts the dominate it can become really stubborn and you end up with Panhandle Hooks.

[Texas Snow]

Ironically I just got a Facebook notification for nine years ago today. My caption then, followed up with a bunch sledding pictures in 6 inches of snow was “when they forecasted a half inch of snow, I sure they meant half a foot”

While I know that this event is most likely not going to happen for us in the metroplex, I won’t stop wish-casting until it’s over. There are misses from time to time.

[WeatherNewbie]

Geez, Deja Vu almost exactly 1 week from now on the GFS. Maybe a little more colder air to work with next week ???

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020020412/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_32.png

The GFS is dead to me after this "storm" if the euro doesn't show it hang it up

It was the first to sniff this one out though (almost 2-3 days before Euro)....yes it appears to have a somewhat cold bias but was only off by 50-100 miles from almost a week out, impressive in my book!!! Inside of 120 hrs, go with the Euro...outside of that, I've preferred the GFS for pattern recognition

this always amazes me about people in general (not singling out anyone) when it comes to weather predictions. the storm travels thousands of miles and people like to call it a bust when it misses the location by 50 miles in the end. getting it within 50 miles over the course of thousands of miles is pretty damn accurate. same thing when it's raining at 33 degrees and they call it a bust when there is no frozen precip. to use a football analogy, it's like equating going 3 and out with driving 80 yards and getting stopped on the 1 yard line just because the result was no TD.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I'm waiting patiently to see what the Euro says for SE Tx.

[TheProfessor]

Ironically I just got a Facebook notification for nine years ago today. My caption then, followed up with a bunch sledding pictures in 6 inches of snow was “when they forecasted a half inch of snow, I sure they meant half a foot”

While I know that this event is most likely not going to happen for us in the metroplex, I won’t stop wish-casting until it’s over. There are misses from time to time.

I've been in your shoes. I can't tell you how many times the models had me getting a foot of snow in Columbus within 60 hours only to completely trending a different direction 12 hours later leaving me hoping that they would trend back the other way. They never did do that for me lol. But sometimes things do change in a short amount of time.

[Brent]

The GFS is dead to me after this "storm" if the euro doesn't show it hang it up

It was the first to sniff this one out though (almost 2-3 days before Euro)....yes it appears to have a somewhat cold bias but was only off by 50-100 miles from almost a week out, impressive in my book!!! Inside of 120 hrs, go with the Euro...outside of that, I've preferred the GFS for pattern recognition

this always amazes me about people in general (not singling out anyone) when it comes to weather predictions. the storm travels thousands of miles and people like to call it a bust when it misses the location by 50 miles in the end. getting it within 50 miles over the course of thousands of miles is pretty damn accurate. same thing when it's raining at 33 degrees and they call it a bust when there is no frozen precip. to use a football analogy, it's like equating going 3 and out with driving 80 yards and getting stopped on the 1 yard line just because the result was no TD.

I get it... but it had how many runs with Dallas getting significant snow for 3 or 4 days straight. I get that WF Isnt that far away and its not a large error but from an IMBY perspective it sucks.

Meanwhile the Euro always showed rain in Dallas and never waivered and that's the likely scenario

[harp]

GFS back to another arctic plunge towards the end of the run.

[EnnisTx]

The GFS is dead to me after this "storm" if the euro doesn't show it hang it up

It was the first to sniff this one out though (almost 2-3 days before Euro)....yes it appears to have a somewhat cold bias but was only off by 50-100 miles from almost a week out, impressive in my book!!! Inside of 120 hrs, go with the Euro...outside of that, I've preferred the GFS for pattern recognition

this always amazes me about people in general (not singling out anyone) when it comes to weather predictions. the storm travels thousands of miles and people like to call it a bust when it misses the location by 50 miles in the end. getting it within 50 miles over the course of thousands of miles is pretty damn accurate. same thing when it's raining at 33 degrees and they call it a bust when there is no frozen precip. to use a football analogy, it's like equating going 3 and out with driving 80 yards and getting stopped on the 1 yard line just because the result was no TD.

Well.... No one wants the winter weather to be just like the Cowboys now do we!

[nathanc1969]

Going to be interesting in San Angelo tonight. We are forecast in the 1 to 3" range with sleet first. But they are expecting up to 7" north of us and hardly any at all south of us. I'll either wake up to a winter wonderland or cold and dry.

[Portastorm]

Going to be interesting in San Angelo tonight. We are forecast in the 1 to 3" range with sleet first. But they are expecting up to 7" north of us and hardly any at all south of us. I'll either wake up to a winter wonderland or cold and dry.

Good luck Nathan! Hope San Angelo gets in on the wintry fun action.

[gpsnowman]

Going to be interesting in San Angelo tonight. We are forecast in the 1 to 3" range with sleet first. But they are expecting up to 7" north of us and hardly any at all south of us. I'll either wake up to a winter wonderland or cold and dry.

Yes, good luck to everyone out west. I hope you pounded with heavy snow. Pictures though, or it didn't happen.