Texas Winter 2019-2020

[orangeblood]

Welp, we have a Margaret Hamilton Nose forming tomorrow morning for DFW....not good, fun model watching run but I believe it's time to throw in the towel for Tarrant/Dallas/Collin. Moving on to the next one, EPO tank with an extreme - PNA; additional ice storm potential over the next few weeks ??

[bubba hotep]

It was always a very borderline setup for DFW. The 3k NAM is even cutting back totals in the favored areas up towards Wichita Falls and going with more sleet and freezing rain.

[rwfromkansas]

So the model WRF showing all the snow yesterday for DFW is going WAY west today. If I see iweathernet/Chris Robbins on FB get excited, I will get excited. He usually is pretty spot-on but only posts for big events.

[WacoWx]

Is the airmass behind the front not as cold as previously thought? I feel like with the front being ahead of schedule (if it actually is), DFW would be looking better, not worse.

Something doesn't make sense to my small weather brain.

[TropicalTundra]

Front is now in NW Central TX as the winds are starting to flip north. Quite early i think

[rwfromkansas]

NWS was talking of the front coming into DFW around noon, so at least it is early.

[HockeyTx82]

And if my memory is correct we have had major busts "last minute real time now casting changes" for severe weather too. Either the storms are nothing when the worst is forecast or way over produce when nothing was expected. I don't think mother nature cares what the models are saying. Funny how we can't even get a forecast 100% right 2-3 days out yet people are telling us for sure that in x years this or that will happen with scientific certainty........

[orangeblood]

Is the airmass behind the front not as cold as previously thought? I feel like with the front being ahead of schedule (if it actually is), DFW would be looking better, not worse.

Something doesn't make sense to my small weather brain.

Warm air advection in the lower levels was underdone...eroding the cold air much more than previously forecast. Always a risk with marginal cold fronts like this one

[Cerlin]

Yeah one of the things I was worried about with a faster FROPA is the higher chance for cold air dissipation.

[orangeblood]

And if my memory is correct we have had major busts "last minute real time now casting changes" for severe weather too. Either the storms are nothing when the worst is forecast or way over produce when nothing was expected. I don't think mother nature cares what the models are saying. Funny how we can't even get a forecast 100% right 2-3 days out yet people are telling us for sure that in x years this or that will happen with scientific certainty........

It truly is laughable...polar ice caps forecasted doom yet here we are with a 12 yr high in Sea Ice coverage and CO2 still increasing hmmmm??

[Cerlin]

Just remember folks, climate is different than weather.

[orangeblood]

Just remember folks, climate is different than weather.

haha classic!!

[Portastorm]

Just remember folks, climate is different than weather.

haha classic!!

I sense this dialogue heading into an undesirable area. Let's go back to talking about the weather and how Wichita Falls and Abilene will get awesome winter weather and the rest of us will just live vicariously through webcams in those places.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

And if my memory is correct we have had major busts "last minute real time now casting changes" for severe weather too. Either the storms are nothing when the worst is forecast or way over produce when nothing was expected. I don't think mother nature cares what the models are saying. Funny how we can't even get a forecast 100% right 2-3 days out yet people are telling us for sure that in x years this or that will happen with scientific certainty........

It truly is laughable...polar ice caps forecasted doom yet here we are with a 12 yr high in Sea Ice coverage and CO2 still increasing hmmmm??

Yeah we have a long way to go for sea ice growth. Problem is the melting during the summer. It's so high, we can gain it back for the winter.

With that said, DFW area, youre only a couple degrees off from this becoming a snow event. It's really close to freezing in some layers of the atmosphere. Still possible you will get lots of snow out of this.

[somethingfunny]

NWS was talking of the front coming into DFW around noon, so at least it is early.

The graphic on NWS FWD website shows the front in DFW between 9 and 10 so we're maybe 30-60 minutes ahead of schedule, nothing crazy. We've dropped 15 degrees in the 15 minutes it took me to drive from the Southeast side of White Rock Lake to the northwest side.

[DFW Stormwatcher]

Just remember folks, climate is different than weather.

haha classic!!

I sense this dialogue heading into an undesirable area. Let's go back to talking about the weather and how Wichita Falls and Abilene will get awesome winter weather and the rest of us will just live vicariously through webcams in those places.

Thank You Porta,

The forum was starting to get pretty dark there.

[Cerlin]

I left my house about 2 hours ago, it has since dropped from the 50s to 46 degrees, so I’d definitely say the front is knocking on our doorstep.

[gboudx]

In a rush this morning, I forgot about this front and didn't wear a jacket. It's gonna be a long, cold walk to my truck when it's quitting time.

[gpsnowman]

Welp, we have a Margaret Hamilton Nose forming tomorrow morning for DFW....not good, fun model watching run but I believe it's time to throw in the towel for Tarrant/Dallas/Collin. Moving on to the next one, EPO tank with an extreme - PNA; additional ice storm potential over the next few weeks ??

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/images/4indices.png

Yep. Not punting on February. We even get an extra day this month!!!! Look out for mid to late month for the next big chance.

[rwfromkansas]

Wish the NAO was better, but other things look good in that forecast.