Texas Winter 2019-2020

[Brent]

0z GFS with a northwest shift in the frozen precip axis...now looks close to the Euro.

Of course it is

[SnowintheFalls]

Local mets here in the Falls are talking about anywhere from 5 to 12 inches. I figured these crazy totals for us would have decreased on the models by now. I wish it would spread out instead of just shifting toward the DFW area so we can all get in on the fun!

[TropicalTundra]

I am HOPING the snow band manages to reach Bell county. Otherwise it will be just a boring icy day.

[Cerlin]

You can’t trust the globals this close to the event. This is not what they’re optimized for.

[AubreyStorm]

New tuit from
NWS Fort Worth

Here's the latest info on the winter storm expected late Tuesday night into Wednesday. The threat for sleet is increasing and shifted a little farther east. Accumulating snow still likely NW of the Metroplex. Stay tuned for latest info. #txwx #dfwwx #texomawx #ctxwx

[South Texas Storms]

Local mets here in the Falls are talking about anywhere from 5 to 12 inches. I figured these crazy totals for us would have decreased on the models by now. I wish it would spread out instead of just shifting toward the DFW area so we can all get in on the fun!

Yep I think you're probably going to be pretty close to the snow bulls-eye with this event...enjoy and please post pictures if you can!

[Texas Snow]

0Z WRF-ARW for comparison

[missygirl810]

0Z WRF-ARW for comparison

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/wrf-arw/2020020400/wrf-arw_asnow_scus_48.png

Is this pretty reliable?

[Texas Snow]

0Z WRF-ARW for comparison

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/wrf-arw/2020020400/wrf-arw_asnow_scus_48.png

Is this pretty reliable?

Oh I’m definitely not going to say that it’s more reliable than anything else, only that it’s just another example of the Hi-Res models showing something over DFW while the globals do not.

Generally speaking once you get within the range of the Hi-Res models (and some won’t start showing up until noon tomorrow) those are more reliable than globals, as other have said.

These models are probably why the NWS expanded the watch if I had to guess.

[TropicalTundra]

WRF-ARW2 doesn’t look half bad. Holds line farther south. If metroplex wants some winter precip it will have to hope the stream does not evacuate through the western Red River.

[missygirl810]

0Z WRF-ARW for comparison

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/wrf-arw/2020020400/wrf-arw_asnow_scus_48.png

Is this pretty reliable?

Oh I’m definitely not going to say that it’s more reliable than anything else, only that it’s just another example of the Hi-Res models showing something over DFW while the globals do not.

Generally speaking once you get within the range of the Hi-Res models (and some won’t start showing up until noon tomorrow) those are more reliable than globals, as other have said.

These models are probably why the NWS expanded the watch if I had to guess.

Thank you!! I get confused with all the options as to which might be better.

[Texas Snow]

But to show all the Hi-Res don’t agree, there’s is this.

This is why you should take forecasts from the NWS many of which have advanced college degrees and years of experience. Models don’t tell the whole story.

We here are trying to guess what will happen based on some of their tools.

Don’t go believing any ole map you see in the internet and don’t look at an App to see in detail what the weather will do. As you can see, it ain’t that easy,

[bubba hotep]

Looking at Oklahoma Mesonet and it looks like the front is approaching I35 and the Red River.

[Brent]

But to show all the Hi-Res don’t agree, there’s is this.

This is why the NWS have advanced college degrees and years of experience. Don’t go believing any ole map you see in the internet and don’t look at an App to see in detail what the weather will do. As you can see, it ain’t that easy,

its definitely not easy and its the hardest thing to forecast. Everything has to be perfect

and you know sometimes our rain forecasts suck

[Jarodm12]

They once again did not add Durant, this doesn't make any sense they added a county west of me, I'm about to give up on this storm, yes things shifted further east but temps are trending higher, im distraut tired of having a passion for something that hardly ever returns back to me, and yet ironically that's apart of the novelty and excitement, I should probably goto the casino instead

[HockeyTx82]

Looking at Oklahoma Mesonet and it looks like the front is approaching I35 and the Red River.

Ahead, behind or on time?

[losf1981]

Local mets here in the Falls are talking about anywhere from 5 to 12 inches. I figured these crazy totals for us would have decreased on the models by now. I wish it would spread out instead of just shifting toward the DFW area so we can all get in on the fun!

Kevin sele just basically poopoo’d on the whole event on the 10pm weather. Calls for mostly sleet due to a warm layer of air. Doesn’t think it will be much and over by noon Wednesday

[CaptinCrunch]

The noon model runs tomorrow will really start to give a pretty good picture of what to expect. I told our ED at work this afternoon to look for the WSW to include Tarrant, Parker, Denton, and maybe Johnson, Dallas counties as the models runs come in late this evening.

This has the look of a major event especially with freezing rain at first then sleet, and maybe a .50" of snow. This is the type of event that can and will cause major travel problems across DFW as bridges will cover quickly and main and secondary roads soon after.

I would expect school closures Wednesday for sure if the freezing rain sets in early on Wednesday morning. As for snow all is needed is a 50 mile bump to the east and its game on across DFW. Even though we just had 80F weather a quick covering on ice is all that is needed to create that barrier and allow good accumulation totals to occur.

[EnnisTx]

Just watched Pete Delkus channel 8 and he acted as if he just found out that Tarrant, Parker and Denton had been added to the watch. His maps showed only a dusting of snow.

[South Texas Storms]

The RGEM has recently become one of my (and Arctic Thunder's) favorite short range forecast models. It tends to perform quite well and not bust very much...especially with regards to winter weather.