Texas Winter 2019-2020

[gpsnowman]

12z GFS - western portion looks like legit snow but as you move closer to DFW that is more sleet/freezing rain. Given the model bias to be too slow with low level cold, winter wx might actually extend farther SE than what is depicted here.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020013112/gfs_asnow_scus_25.png

Yes, some over-performing cold by a few degrees might play a huge role in all this. Not uncommon for that to happen with these strong fronts. Color me excited about this potential.

[bubba hotep]

:uarrow: At the 500mb, much of North Texas goes below 540dm. That's the coldest aloft system of the season and the strongest in years if verified.

This system has some serious potential, not just for snow but significant blizzard, major storm perhaps for somebody?

The H5 look on the GFS has been improving over the last several runs and my interest has been increasing as well

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: At the 500mb, much of North Texas goes below 540dm. That's the coldest aloft system of the season and the strongest in years if verified.

This system has some serious potential, not just for snow but significant blizzard, major storm perhaps for somebody?

The H5 look on the GFS has been improving over the last several runs and my interest has been increasing as well

Even the Canadian has been improving and all 3 major globals depict a very strong upper level system. All are ~540. Crazy that the Euro went there as well.

[Quixotic]

:uarrow: At the 500mb, much of North Texas goes below 540dm. That's the coldest aloft system of the season and the strongest in years if verified.

This system has some serious potential, not just for snow but significant blizzard, major storm perhaps for somebody?

The H5 look on the GFS has been improving over the last several runs and my interest has been increasing as well

We finally have something to watch.

[Texas Snow]

We finally have something to watch.

After practically everyone had given up.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

We finally have something to watch.

After practically everyone had given up.

Always happens. Always.

Lots of emotional weather followers.

[stormlover2013]

still about 5 days away also, it could either change for the good for the state of texas or bust lol lol

[Ntxw]

We finally have something to watch.

After practically everyone had given up.

Always happens. Always.

Lots of emotional weather followers.

Only the emotions of posters . The atmosphere has no memory. Because it didn't snow last storm means zilch for the next storm, vice versa. It has been one of the warmest Dec/Jan combinations ever for DFW yet if it snows again the coming week, it will have happened with two measurable events at the airport despite being one of the warmest ever. We've had some really cold periods that have equaled zilch.

[Jarodm12]

Guys and Gals, i feel it! This is it! This is our recompense! I just feel this storm is gonna show up and we are gonna be pleased all global models are zeroing in and we are in the strike zone within 5 days! Everyone i think we've gor ourselves our first major storm in a long long time, all we can do is watch now and hope that the high res models agree hugs my feelers are going crazy crazy!

[dhweather]

:uarrow: At the 500mb, much of North Texas goes below 540dm. That's the coldest aloft system of the season and the strongest in years if verified.

This system has some serious potential, not just for snow but significant blizzard, major storm perhaps for somebody?

Crazy, isn't it? Basically the entire state north of Corpus is <540, northwest parts of the FWD CWA <528

[Quixotic]

We finally have something to watch.

After practically everyone had given up.

Let the model vigilance commence!

[Haris]

Do you think we will be cold enough in Austin? I hate the latest models for us

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: At the 500mb, much of North Texas goes below 540dm. That's the coldest aloft system of the season and the strongest in years if verified.

This system has some serious potential, not just for snow but significant blizzard, major storm perhaps for somebody?

Crazy, isn't it? Basically the entire state north of Corpus is <540, northwest parts of the FWD CWA <528

The deepest aloft I can recall was Christmas Eve 09 when it got down to about ~540 but not in such a large area only in the core of the ULL/trough apex. I don't think we've had any that deep since. Most of the arctic blasts we've had were not terribly cold aloft (shallow cold air).

[dhweather]

"Follow the vorticity" - Dennis Cavanaugh

[Ntxw]

Do you think we will be cold enough in Austin? I hate the latest models for us

There is a fresh source of cold air coming in early week. I'd watch that for trends colder at the surface.

[Jarodm12]

Do you think we will be cold enough in Austin? I hate the latest models for us

There is a fresh source of cold air coming in early week. I'd watch that for trends colder at the surface.

Bases on right now, and yes i am kind of asking you to make an off the cuff prediction for me if you're willing to do that, but based on right now with everything you're seeing what do you think about Durant Oklahoma

[Ralph's Weather]

This looks like a situation where the models are actually underdoing the winter precip potential of this storm.

[Cerlin]

I was a few days away from issuing my official winter cancel too...now my life has purpose again!

[harp]

Happy for you guys!! I will be living vicariously through you over here in Louisiana. Doesn't look like we have a chance.

[starsfan65]

This looks like a situation where the models are actually underdoing the winter precip potential of this storm.

underdoing the winter precip?