Texas Winter 2019-2020

[bubba hotep]

Not surprising to see the operational models drop the snow event for next week since the ensemble support has been hovering around 35%. The 00z super was 37% but the 00z/06z blend jumped to 44% driven by the GEFS. So, even with a bit of an increase in ensemble support we are still below 50%, so still a long shot event. It will be interesting to see if the GEFS trend holds and if the EPS joins it. Maybe a better look on the 12z ops based on the bump in the 00z/06z blend?

What is your criteria for ensemble support? On 06Z I count 80% of GFS members as having snow in N TX and 55% with >1" in N TX for next week. For E TX, I count 90% with some snow and 25% with >1". For C TX, I count 50% with some snow and 15% with >1". For SE TX I count 65% with some snow and 10% with > 1". This is per CoD.

I should clarify, I was talking specifically about KDFW but can run this for any other location that data is available.

[gpsnowman]

Any cool down large or small would be welcome at this point. It feels like freakin May outside.

[wxman57]

12Z Euro is very much like the 12Z GFS. Some light to moderate rain next Tue night/Wed but temps way too warm for anything frozen. Matches the upper air pattern well now.

[starsfan65]

12Z Euro is very much like the 12Z GFS. Some light to moderate rain next Tue night/Wed but temps way too warm for anything frozen. Matches the upper air pattern well now.

Mr. Heat Miser, tear down this wall!!

[Ralph's Weather]

I made this to show that I mean when I mention a region of Texas. Some of the boundaries are kind of fluid and hard to define.

[wxman57]

12Z Euro is very much like the 12Z GFS. Some light to moderate rain next Tue night/Wed but temps way too warm for anything frozen. Matches the upper air pattern well now.

Mr. Heat Miser, tear down this wall!!

Many have tried, but none has succeeded in tearing down my ice wall.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Not a good trend. Lets see if the euro will save us. I expected winter to be back and forth with cold and hot, but these warm spells are lasting longer than though. Warm pool is disappointing us again. So different from 13-14. Makes you wonder what other factors occurred that year which led to so many arctic fronts, because clearly it wasnt just the warm pool.

I understand there are so many variables that occur in weather but we thought the warm pool bringing down cold air was a given.

The MJO pop into the "Warm Phases" has really dampened the impact of the NE Pacific Warm Pool...need this to continue swinging into 7-8-1 to get things started favorably

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR%20/diagram_40days_forecast_GEFSBC_member.gif

Seems to be our biggest issue. MJO has the largest effect on our weather, possibly the globe. Predicting the mjo coming into a particular season is tough. Oh well. Another rough winter for us!

[harp]

Here is something to watch in the interim. This guy is in the north Dallas area. Let me know what you think.....https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f7eDgBEIL3Q

[dhweather]

Where's that winter cancel button? La Nada is in full effect.

[Haris]

12Z Euro is very much like the 12Z GFS. Some light to moderate rain next Tue night/Wed but temps way too warm for anything frozen. Matches the upper air pattern well now.

Mr. Heat Miser, tear down this wall!!

I’m heading up there this weekend to dig some tunnels underneath it to allow for some of that cold to dive S.

[Brent]

Any cool down large or small would be welcome at this point. It feels like freakin May outside.

I was just going to say it feels like a spring dryline setup day.

[weatherdude1108]

Any cool down large or small would be welcome at this point. It feels like freakin May outside.

I was just going to say it feels like a spring dryline setup day.

It felt like that here last Friday with that "unstable" feel!lol

[wxman57]

Looks like Bush airport (IAH) has broken the high record for the day. This was one of only 3-4 days during the year where the record high was below 80 (79). Temperature at Bush is now 80. My kind of winter! Perhaps those 90+ deg February records will be in trouble this year?

[Brent]

DFW is 1 degree from the record high right now it appears

edit just hit 81, new record high

[gpsnowman]

DFW is 1 degree from the record high right now it appears

edit just hit 81, new record high

Just saw this great news. Hooray.

[Yukon Cornelius]

At least it’s now a little cooler up here. Front came through and dropped it from the 70s to the mid 50s. In the winter of no winter I guess every little event helps.

[gboudx]

Here is something to watch in the interim. This guy is in the north Dallas area. Let me know what you think.....https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f7eDgBEIL3Q

I remember watching his video from 12/30/19. He's staying consistent in this being a late winter, lasting well into March. Guess we'll see.

[wxman57]

Here is something to watch in the interim. This guy is in the north Dallas area. Let me know what you think.....https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f7eDgBEIL3Q

I remember watching his video from 12/30/19. He's staying consistent in this being a late winter, lasting well into March. Guess we'll see.

Since we haven't had much winter yet, a late winter is a greater possibility. I just saw today the Great Lakes are only 5.3% ice-covered. Remember last January with the "Polar Vortex" dropping over the lakes and Midwest? I watched the guy's video. One thing that struck me is he pronounces "pattern" as 3 syllables (pat-ter-in).

[northjaxpro]

Here is something to watch in the interim. This guy is in the north Dallas area. Let me know what you think.....https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f7eDgBEIL3Q

The guy pretty much is on top of the pattern change. Solid analysis. He hit on all the critical components concerning the rest of the winter outlook, as we get into late January into February, especially concerning the SOI index.

Let's see though if this set-up will finally bring about a decent NAO tanking and a corresponding Greenland Block. It did not even set-up duriig last winter 2019 SSW event, which was anticipated to do, but it never came to fruition. This is what has been lacking for a long long time to bring real cold arctic outbreaks to the Eastern CONUS in years. We shall see if this will occur in the next couple of weeks.

[gboudx]

One thing that struck me is he pronounces "pattern" as 3 syllables (pat-ter-in).

That was grating on me like nails on a chalkboard. I may not watch anymore of his videos unless he learns proper pronunciation.