Texas Winter 2019-2020

[Brent]

Euro called for snow when there wasn’t for DFW a few weeks ago and was also one of the last models to pick up on the snow on Saturday. Not gonna hedge my bets on that one yet

Yeah I'm definitely not buying anything yet but at least there's something to talk about now

[rwfromkansas]

I do love that GFS map even if the bullseye is south. Need something to start at least showing up on models first.

[Ralph's Weather]

The Euro has been very poor with winter weather the past couple years. The GFS has been better, it did very well with the last storm. The cold and upper level moisture look good next week. I am just watching to see if we can get a more pronounced shortwave and a resulting surface low. This would consolidate the precip shield and allow the storm to continue along the Gulf Coast. Right now we are looking a widespread sub 6 inch event over the west half of the state. I want a I-20 special. I need to go back over the charts for late Feb 2015 but this upcoming pattern feels similar with a bunch of small events.

[harp]

The Euro has been very poor with winter weather the past couple years. The GFS has been better, it did very well with the last storm. The cold and upper level moisture look good next week. I am just watching to see if we can get a more pronounced shortwave and a resulting surface low. This would consolidate the precip shield and allow the storm to continue along the Gulf Coast. Right now we are looking a widespread sub 6 inch event over the west half of the state. I want a I-20 special. I need to go back over the charts for late Feb 2015 but this upcoming pattern feels similar with a bunch of small events.

Hey, Ralph, don't forget I-10! Lol!!

[bubba hotep]

[Ralph's Weather]

The Euro has been very poor with winter weather the past couple years. The GFS has been better, it did very well with the last storm. The cold and upper level moisture look good next week. I am just watching to see if we can get a more pronounced shortwave and a resulting surface low. This would consolidate the precip shield and allow the storm to continue along the Gulf Coast. Right now we are looking a widespread sub 6 inch event over the west half of the state. I want a I-20 special. I need to go back over the charts for late Feb 2015 but this upcoming pattern feels similar with a bunch of small events.

Hey, Ralph, don't forget I-10! Lol!!

I'm selfish haha. I need the low on or north of the coast. Y'all need it down in the Gulf.

[Brent]

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/dallas/total_snow_kuchera/1579024800/1580407200-mYTOu0HObG0.png

If this could verify it would make the whole winter lol

And honestly maybe even the 4 years of not snowing lol

[starsfan65]

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/dallas/total_snow_kuchera/1579024800/1580407200-mYTOu0HObG0.png

If this could verify it would make the whole winter lol

And honestly maybe even the 4 years of not snowing lol

Did you get any snow Brent?

[bubba hotep]

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/dallas/total_snow_kuchera/1579024800/1580407200-mYTOu0HObG0.png

If this could verify it would make the whole winter lol

And honestly maybe even the 4 years of not snowing lol

Soundings look great for the DFW area, deep cold column with high ratios. Off to the SW in the areas of "bigger" totals that looks like mostly sleet.

[Texas Snow]

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/dallas/total_snow_kuchera/1579024800/1580407200-mYTOu0HObG0.png

If this could verify it would make the whole winter lol

And honestly maybe even the 4 years of not snowing lol

I’d prefer maybe 50 miles further East which really isn’t that much, but yeah, I would be happy for the winter.

I would not agree it makes up for 4 winters though,

[Ralph's Weather]

18Z GFS has a weaker SW periphery of the Midwest high allowing moisture to advect further east faster on Tuesday. Still not much forcing just a juicy STJ.

[Brent]

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/dallas/total_snow_kuchera/1579024800/1580407200-mYTOu0HObG0.png

If this could verify it would make the whole winter lol

And honestly maybe even the 4 years of not snowing lol

Did you get any snow Brent?

I never saw any Saturday the band was poofing over here but I had just got home at 4am that morning from Lake Tahoe where I saw quite a bit(search my posts I posted a bunch of pictures)

[Cerlin]

Oops. 00z GFS.

[Cpv17]

Oops. 00z GFS.

Yep. Bye bye winter storm on this run lol

[Brent]

Oops. 00z GFS.

Shocker

Lol at the rain into Nebraska

[harp]

Dramatic change for just a week out....

[Cerlin]

Don’t put too much stock into it. Just one run. If the next two look like this, we reevaluate. Just like we shouldn’t take the 7 inches run as fact either. All about those trends.

Doesn’t mean it’s not funny to see it completely abandon it though.

[Texas Snow]

Dramatic change for just a week out....

Just a week? That’s an eternity for winter weather forecasting.

While i would love to see every model run show snow for 2 weeks, losing it one run 7 days out doesn’t cause worry. The euro could come out in the next couple hours and show snow and we willl all celebrate but even that means nothing yet.

It was said above we would see wild swings. And that is gonna be true here.

Even Heat miser is showing cracks on this one so don’t give up hope.

[harp]

Dramatic change for just a week out....

Just a week? That’s an eternity for winter weather forecasting.

While i would love to see every model run show snow for 2 weeks, losing it one run 7 days out doesn’t cause worry. The euro could come out in the next couple hours and show snow and we willl all celebrate but even that means nothing yet.

It was said above we would see wild swings. And that is gonna be true here.

Even Heat miser is showing cracks on this one so don’t give up hope.

I guess what I meant was it lost the cold air as well.

[Brent]

The GEFS still looks pretty good

Now if the Euro drops it then that's another matter