Texas Winter 2019-2020

[bubba hotep]

12z Super Ensemble is up to 33% for winter wx at DFW b/w the 20 - 22nd.

[northjaxpro]

Looks like we are nearing the pattern flip that everyone has been waiting on. The eastern 2/3 of the US will be under a good winter pattern finally come next week and it appears to have staying power. The southern jet looks to become dominant. After this weekend the GFS nor GEFS has any 50s, though no signs of cold either. Both also show near constant precip chances. With this pattern any decent shortwave could produce snow. We won't have to spend 10 days waiting on one potential storm that may or may not pan out.

That is correct. The current strengthening MJO pulse is finally working its mojo!

The pattern set-up indeed could be a potential bonanza for folks across the Southern Plains/ Southeast U S. with cold air potential dropping south and potential active southern stream jet in the next.10-14 days. Things just may finally get cranking for many who want cold and wintry precip potential soon!

[Cerlin]

All signs are pointing towards potential fun towards the end of this month and into next. That Canadian wall will fall!!!

[Ralph's Weather]

Looks like we are nearing the pattern flip that everyone has been waiting on. The eastern 2/3 of the US will be under a good winter pattern finally come next week and it appears to have staying power. The southern jet looks to become dominant. After this weekend the GFS nor GEFS has any 50s, though no signs of cold either. Both also show near constant precip chances. With this pattern any decent shortwave could produce snow. We won't have to spend 10 days waiting on one potential storm that may or may not pan out.

That is correct. The current strengthening MJO pulse is finally working its mojo!

The pattern set-up indeed could be a potential bonanza for folks across the Southern Plains/ Southeast U S. with cold air potential dropping south and potential active southern stream jet in the next.10-14 days. Things just may finally get cranking for many who want cold and wintry precip potential soon!

We are gonna have some wild op runs, but I do fully expect to get some snow out of this setup. Multiple weeks of below average temps consecutively with abundant moisture in the heart of wither.

[northjaxpro]

Looks like we are nearing the pattern flip that everyone has been waiting on. The eastern 2/3 of the US will be under a good winter pattern finally come next week and it appears to have staying power. The southern jet looks to become dominant. After this weekend the GFS nor GEFS has any 50s, though no signs of cold either. Both also show near constant precip chances. With this pattern any decent shortwave could produce snow. We won't have to spend 10 days waiting on one potential storm that may or may not pan out.

That is correct. The current strengthening MJO pulse is finally working its mojo!

The pattern set-up indeed could be a potential bonanza for folks across the Southern Plains/ Southeast U S. with cold air potential dropping south and potential active southern stream jet in the next.10-14 days. Things just may finally get cranking for many who want cold and wintry precip potential soon!

We are gonna have some wild op runs, but I do fully expect to get some snow out of this setup. Multiple weeks of below average temps consecutively with abundant moisture in the heart of wither.

Yes, I agree.

[BigB0882]

Doesn’t seem, at this point, that the cold will be strong enough to put the coastal regions in the mix for potential fun. Hopefully we can keep this pattern and get an even stronger push of cold in the coming weeks.

[Cpv17]

Doesn’t seem, at this point, that the cold will be strong enough to put the coastal regions in the mix for potential fun. Hopefully we can keep this pattern and get an even stronger push of cold in the coming weeks.

Yeah, I don’t really see any Artic outbreaks coming. Looks like that is staying bottled up north and not really coming this direction. Just looks like a wet pattern with your average winter cold fronts.

[northjaxpro]

Doesn’t seem, at this point, that the cold will be strong enough to put the coastal regions in the mix for potential fun. Hopefully we can keep this pattern and get an even stronger push of cold in the coming weeks.

Yeah, I don’t really see any Artic outbreaks coming. Looks like that is staying bottled up north and not really coming this direction. Just looks like a wet pattern with your average winter cold fronts.

You are not going to see a big arctic outbreak right now initially. The pattern change is still ongoing and evolving. We will see a initial cool down next week, but the coldest air or anomalies will not take place until we get near the end of this month or into the first week of February in all likelihood. It will be a gradual top down to bottom process before the coldest air arrives.

[Cpv17]

Doesn’t seem, at this point, that the cold will be strong enough to put the coastal regions in the mix for potential fun. Hopefully we can keep this pattern and get an even stronger push of cold in the coming weeks.

Yeah, I don’t really see any Artic outbreaks coming. Looks like that is staying bottled up north and not really coming this direction. Just looks like a wet pattern with your average winter cold fronts.

You are not going to see a big arctic outbreak right now initially. The pattern change is still ongoing and evolving. We will see a initial cool down next week, but the coldest air or anomalies will not take place until we get near the end of this month or into the first week of February in all likelihood. It will be a gradual top to bottom ptocess before the coldest air arrives.

Why’s the cold staying bottled up north? What needs to happen for it to start heading south?

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, I don’t really see any Artic outbreaks coming. Looks like that is staying bottled up north and not really coming this direction. Just looks like a wet pattern with your average winter cold fronts.

You are not going to see a big arctic outbreak right now initially. The pattern change is still ongoing and evolving. We will see a initial cool down next week, but the coldest air or anomalies will not take place until we get near the end of this month or into the first week of February in all likelihood. It will be a gradual top to bottom ptocess before the coldest air arrives.

Why’s the cold staying bottled up north? What needs to happen for it to start heading south?

We need the NAO to go negative a bit more. We need a forcing mechanism, like the Greenland Blocking pattern, to set-up and dislodge at least a significant chunk of that arctic air southward over the North America continent into the Eastern CONUS. Usually, when the NAO tanks, the Greenland Block usually sets'up during the winter. So, we await to see if that will occur over the next couple of weeks.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

We have been expecting a flip for a while now, and it has yet to happen. I am confident that eventually it will though. A bit of a block will be popping up over the arctic in 4 days time, this could help create some chaos and step things down. Id really like to see the MJO be favorable.

Of course, this is all after my trip to Colorado during the last week of January. 5th year in a row now and we have seen a combine 5" of snow on our trips. We're there for a week each time!

[Texas Snow]

Looks like we are nearing the pattern flip that everyone has been waiting on. The eastern 2/3 of the US will be under a good winter pattern finally come next week and it appears to have staying power. The southern jet looks to become dominant. After this weekend the GFS nor GEFS has any 50s, though no signs of cold either. Both also show near constant precip chances. With this pattern any decent shortwave could produce snow. We won't have to spend 10 days waiting on one potential storm that may or may not pan out.

That is correct. The current strengthening MJO pulse is finally working its mojo!

The pattern set-up indeed could be a potential bonanza for folks across the Southern Plains/ Southeast U S. with cold air potential dropping south and potential active southern stream jet in the next.10-14 days. Things just may finally get cranking for many who want cold and wintry precip potential soon!

We are gonna have some wild op runs, but I do fully expect to get some snow out of this setup. Multiple weeks of below average temps consecutively with abundant moisture in the heart of wither.

I have scoured the internet and these are in fact the two best opinions posted on the Internet today regardless of country, political leaning, or subject matter. Congrats and may the odds forever be in your favor.

[orangeblood]

And here come the Operationals...The HP is much stronger this run, numerous ENS members have been showing this lately - good sign for early next week!

[Texas Snow]

The trend is our friend.

[Brent]

Holy GFS

[Ntxw]

Snow palooza on the GFS run. . Pattern has real potential. Major WWB in the Pacific will bring upon the STJ amidst the cold air.

Reminds us Feb 2015 did happen once upon a distant memory...

Sometimes you just got to get the ignition going. Perhaps last Saturday was it, teaser.

[harp]

I'm liking the tend of the operational GFS finally. Don't forget south Louisiana!! Come by for some boiled crawfish and gumbo!

[Cerlin]

7 inches of snow sounds nice to me. Still too far out to get excited about specifics but it seems like the operational are latching onto the signals the ensembles have been showing.

[bubba hotep]

Latest Euro Weeklies looks good.

[Ralph's Weather]

As my post earlier stated we will see wild runs of the models and the GFS does it on the next run haha. The pattern is ripe. This time of year you don't need or even want Arctic for snow. A dominant STJ tracking directly across Texas is perfect in mid winter. I have meetings in Houston early next week in Houston so I am paying close attention so I can give notice about rescheduling if needed.