Texas Winter 2019-2020

[South Texas Storms]

The cold air and winter storm threat is just a little delayed on the 12z GFS. It's still there...just a few days later in January

Yep, and as I’ve been staring, the upper air pattern the week of the 20th would deliver the goods to us.

Yeah those lower heights would certainly give us a better chance of sleet/snow. Next week may be more of a freezing rain threat if temperatures are cold enough.

[bubba hotep]

Models not only show the potential threat on the 17th and 18th but again on the 21rst through 23rd. It will be interesting to see how this all pans out.

The 21st through 23rd have a much more favorable upper air pattern. Deep dig into the SW and ejection right across Texas. During that time frame, it looks like some gnarly ice accumulations for DFW as they would be right in the battleground.

That window also has more ensemble support. It's fun to look at individual operational runs but beyond 5 days or so they are basically just another ensemble member.

[Brent]

Models not only show the potential threat on the 17th and 18th but again on the 21rst through 23rd. It will be interesting to see how this all pans out.

The 21st through 23rd have a much more favorable upper air pattern. Deep dig into the SW and ejection right across Texas. During that time frame, it looks like some gnarly ice accumulations for DFW as they would be right in the battleground.

That window also has more ensemble support. It's fun to look at individual operational runs but beyond 5 days or so they are basically just another ensemble member.

Yeah just looking at the GEFS there's only a few members out of 20 that have any snow late next week for DFW

[wxman57]

It's almost a joke comparing the 10-day GFS upper flow vs. the Euro. GFS now doesn't bring any cold front through SE TX until Monday morning, the 20th (after next week). Euro brings a dry front through (nothing major) next Friday evening. No hint of any precip behind it.

I think at least one of the predicted patterns at 240 hrs below will not verify:

[Brent]

In Lake Tahoe This is all old snow expecting a couple inches in the morning

[mcallum177]

I know this is fantasy land but the 12z GEFS members 10,12,13,15,18,20 seems like an excessive amount of ice across Texas if it were to actually occur.

[weatherdude1108]

Time to break out the snow plows around Austin!

[harp]

Time to break out the snow plows around Austin!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020010812/gfs_asnowd_scus_65.png

South Louisiana gets nothing! Arrgghhh!!!!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Something to note from the 12 Z. Although it is 384 hours out, people in Southeast Texas should take note with this pattern. It is arguably the best pattern we could have for us to receive snow.

And upper level low digging south of the big Ben region and swinging through exactly like it does on the 12 Z, there is some more to the Christmas eve miracle from 2004.

[BTAYLOR5021]

My weather app has snow for Dallas This sat. Morning. Is this a possibility? Temps are also starting to trend downward for next week.

[Cerlin]

My weather app has snow for Dallas This sat. Morning. Is this a possibility? Temps are also starting to trend downward for next week.

I mean it’s a possibility yes but the models are going to have to start showing it more to gain any confidence in it. If anything it’s wrap around flakes that build up on the roof.

[cheezyWXguy]

18z 3km NAM is scary for DFW on Friday, much further west development, and later. Instability is meager but sufficient, and the atmosphere is uncapped by about 2pm. SRH values around 400 m2/s2 as a 1002mb surface low develops and tracks over DFW. Would not sleep on this.

[bubba hotep]

Models are converging on a potentially big time rain event for DFW, could see widespread 3-5". This goes with an increasing svr wx threat, esp. if isolated cells fire along the dryline west of DFW early Friday afternoon.

[South Texas Storms]

Models are converging on a potentially big time rain event for DFW, could see widespread 3-5". This goes with an increasing svr wx threat, esp. if isolated cells fire along the dryline west of DFW early Friday afternoon.

Looking better for south central Texas as well! Most models appear to be trending towards the slower and deeper Euro. Don't forget about us DFW friends! We need rain...even more than yall do. SA finished with a 10+ inch rainfall deficit in 2019. Hoping for a much wetter year in 2020!

[Brent]

Models are converging on a potentially big time rain event for DFW, could see widespread 3-5". This goes with an increasing svr wx threat, esp. if isolated cells fire along the dryline west of DFW early Friday afternoon.

Of course it'll be the day I fly back

Under a winter wx advisory here for 1-3 inches of snow btw I was walking through a park today and the snow was deeper than my shoes several times

[bubba hotep]

Models are converging on a potentially big time rain event for DFW, could see widespread 3-5". This goes with an increasing svr wx threat, esp. if isolated cells fire along the dryline west of DFW early Friday afternoon.

Looking better for south central Texas as well! Most models appear to be trending towards the slower and deeper Euro. Don't forget about us DFW friends! We need rain...even more than yall do. SA finished with a 10+ inch rainfall deficit in 2019. Hoping for a much wetter year in 2020!

We just like to complain up here in DFW lol

We are actually doing pretty good compared to other areas.

[bubba hotep]

Models are converging on a potentially big time rain event for DFW, could see widespread 3-5". This goes with an increasing svr wx threat, esp. if isolated cells fire along the dryline west of DFW early Friday afternoon.

Of course it'll be the day I fly back

Under a winter wx advisory here for 1-3 inches of snow btw I was walking through a park today and the snow was deeper than my shoes several times

That will be a bumpy ride!

[Cpv17]

Models are converging on a potentially big time rain event for DFW, could see widespread 3-5". This goes with an increasing svr wx threat, esp. if isolated cells fire along the dryline west of DFW early Friday afternoon.

Looking better for south central Texas as well! Most models appear to be trending towards the slower and deeper Euro. Don't forget about us DFW friends! We need rain...even more than yall do. SA finished with a 10+ inch rainfall deficit in 2019. Hoping for a much wetter year in 2020!

I think the SPC could shift the severe threat further west and possibly even a bit more south by what I’m seeing on the models.

[bubba hotep]

[TheProfessor]

I think the East Texas folks(and maybe just north of Houston) really need to be on guard for Friday. If you get any surface based storms to pop up ahead of MCS it could get really bad really quick.