Texas Winter 2019-2020

[TheProfessor]

The 12z Euro is quite wet for the eastern half of the metro(and still a good amount of rain for most of the Metroplex as well.)

[TheProfessor]

The atmosphere out ahead of the QLCS on the Euro(Pivotal has Skew-Ts for the high res now btw!) is quite electric. If we don't see super cells form I imagine at least the line of storms will have quick spin ups.

[wxman57]

12Z GFS temps late next week & over the weekend for Houston look odd. After Thu/Fri with a high near freezing, the high reaches the lower 70s by Sunday. Note that the GFS positive snow depth chart includes sleet. Looking in the 17" max area, it starts as snow then changes to sleet as a large warm nose develops aloft. Of course, the GFS does not take into account my wall.

[wxman57]

Good news, my S2K friends! The ECMWF has incorporated my reinforced wall into their model. No snow in Texas next week. The wall will hold!

[TexasSam]

I haven't looked here in like a month. last night I saw the temps. up in Alaska and wondered if that cold would break loose. So I looked here and saw way more than I expected. Fun times on the way.

[WacoWx]

Sam, I think you know how all of this will play out. Temper your expectations.

[Texas Snowman]

Good news, my S2K friends! The ECMWF has incorporated my reinforced wall into their model. No snow in Texas next week. The wall will hold!

http://wxman57.com/images/EC.png

But I thought yesterday it was the GFS you were touting. Or maybe it was the day before. Or maybe last week. It’s hard to keep track with all of your flip flopping.

[Brent]

We've been burned so many times I don't buy it right now but at least there's something to talk about which is a big improvement over lately

Btw I land on Friday in Dallas around 5pm and will be watching the severe threat

But right now I'm at Squaw Valley expecting 1-3 inches on Thursday. I'm still assuming this will be the only snow I see this winter

[wxman57]

Good news, my S2K friends! The ECMWF has incorporated my reinforced wall into their model. No snow in Texas next week. The wall will hold!

http://wxman57.com/images/EC.png

But I thought yesterday it was the GFS you were touting. Or maybe it was the day before. Or maybe last week. It’s hard to keep track with all of your flip flopping.

I don't think I've ever said that I believed the GFS, I only posted its predictions.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Squaw Valley is my favorite resort. Awesome place to ski.

[Haris]

Enjoy your heart out, Brent! It’s an amazing feeling especially when you see the snow actually fall. The two days last November when I experienced snow were the best in my lifetime. No hyperbole.

[orangeblood]

Also needs to be mentioned...The GFS has shown signs lately of being the new sheriff in town, particularly with it's MJO forecast - Euro has been way behind the GFS lately.

[wxman57]

Also needs to be mentioned...The GFS has shown signs lately of being the new sheriff in town, particularly with it's MJO forecast - Euro has been way behind the GFS lately.

I don't know, this whole GFS ice event looks "fishy", to me. Let's see what it is forecasting by this weekend.

[harp]

Also needs to be mentioned...The GFS has shown signs lately of being the new sheriff in town, particularly with it's MJO forecast - Euro has been way behind the GFS lately.

I don't know, this whole GFS ice event looks "fishy", to me. Let's see what it is forecasting by this weekend.

We all know it will probably be gone again on the 18Z run. You can go for a nice long bike ride. Lol!!

[TheProfessor]

18z NAM is coming in deeper with the trough and is aligning more with the Euro, I'm starting to think the eastern Metroplex could get a good rain out of this(and unfortunately some severe weather.)

Edit: Idk why I put 0z lol.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Also needs to be mentioned...The GFS has shown signs lately of being the new sheriff in town, particularly with it's MJO forecast - Euro has been way behind the GFS lately.

I don't know, this whole GFS ice event looks "fishy", to me. Let's see what it is forecasting by this weekend.

I agree. It won't be in the 70s by Sunday.

[Brent]

Enjoy your heart out, Brent! It’s an amazing feeling especially when you see the snow actually fall. The two days last November when I experienced snow were the best in my lifetime. No hyperbole.

It's been an interesting trip so far been near 50 degrees down in the city but yeah I'm ready to see some snow actually fall now

[gpsnowman]

NBC 5 just mentioned wet snow a "possibility" on Saturday for DFW. Seems like a long shot but something to monitor. Ralph's Weather mentioned this possibility a couple days ago. Either way an actual cold front with actual cold air is coming this weekend!!!! A day in the 40's if you can believe it.

[bubba hotep]

NBC 5 just mentioned wet snow a "possibility" on Saturday for DFW. Seems like a long shot but something to monitor. Ralph's Weather mentioned this possibility a couple days ago.

EPS is more enthusiastic about some wrap around snow for Northern DFW than it is for the winter storm the GFS is showing later on. Also, the EPS mean is nearly 2" at DFW for Friday, trends breaking in our favor for once?

[gpsnowman]

NBC 5 just mentioned wet snow a "possibility" on Saturday for DFW. Seems like a long shot but something to monitor. Ralph's Weather mentioned this possibility a couple days ago.

EPS is more enthusiastic about some wrap around snow for Northern DFW than it is for the winter storm the GFS is showing later on. Also, the EPS mean is nearly 2" at DFW for Friday, trends breaking in our favor for once?

Maybe so. The forecast graphics did show a more westward rain shield that encompasses.all of DFW. That includes a higher severe chance I am assuming. That is no bueno. Gimmie a solid downpour and skip the severe stuff please. We should all be weather aware in any case.