Texas Winter 2019-2020

[bubba hotep]

It's amazing how stable the D11 Super Ensemble Analog Composite has been over the past week.

More of the same overnight, taking the top years that have been showing up and then rolling them forward through J&F gives you this:



More of the same.

00z GEFS and EPS 5day mean centered on end of run:





However, roll those years forward to F&M:



So, a delayed but not denied winter is still possible. However, winter is over for most of Texas come early March.

[Brent]

So, a delayed but not denied winter is still possible. However, winter is over for most of Texas come early March.

tick tock...

[TheProfessor]

Not Texas related but something to watch this winter. Over the next couple of weeks the models are dropping a lot of rain over the Mississippi River basin(Specifically the Ohio River and north-central Mississippi River on the GFS) If something like this occurs anywhere in the basin(the latest GFS has over 10 inches following) then we could see another flood year on the Mississippi, which in turn could really mess up fishery and tourism down south. Even if this winter/spring ended up half as bad as last year, it'd still be bad.

[Ralph's Weather]

Most similar winters don't really start until after Valentines Day. We can get snow into April so I am not stressing. I have faith that the -PNA will relax vs last winters +PNA.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Most similar winters don't really start until after Valentines Day. We can get snow into April so I am not stressing. I have faith that the -PNA will relax vs last winters +PNA.

Who gets snow in April, besides the mountains and northern parts of the US? All the possible late winter means is cooler spring temps instead of almost going right into a summer pattern. Nothing extreme or crazy cold.

[Brent]

Most similar winters don't really start until after Valentines Day. We can get snow into April so I am not stressing. I have faith that the -PNA will relax vs last winters +PNA.

maybe we'll have something like 14-15 in February/early March but I highly doubt it would snow in April... Dallas has only ever recorded a trace

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Most similar winters don't really start until after Valentines Day. We can get snow into April so I am not stressing. I have faith that the -PNA will relax vs last winters +PNA.

Who gets snow in April, besides the mountains and northern parts of the US? All the possible late winter means is cooler spring temps instead of almost going right into a summer pattern. Nothing extreme or crazy cold.

Well Texas did 4 years ago.... all the way down to College Station which is in SE Texas.

It’s definitely possible. With that said, my focus isn’t on a anomalous April snow..: it’s on February and first half of March, and we’ve seen ice/snow events all the way to Houston in those times.

[Astromanía]

I don't think April will change anything, I think our best chance is JULY but we will see

[harp]

GFS gives us another tease starting about hour 264...

[Brent]

Only 288 hours out! it's all ice

[wxman57]

Only 288 hours out! it's all ice

https://i.ibb.co/X3QNNPw/gfs-mslp-pcpn-frzn-scus-48.png

Saw that. 1057mb high dropping out of Canada on the 15th. It keeps trying to show something in Texas around the 15th-16th (various 6Z and 18Z runs mostly). Very shallow sub-freezing with warm air aloft = sleet, mostly. I'm not inclined to believe it as the GFS has been very inconsistent so far out.

Brent - looks like you may see some snow in Tahoe Wed-Thu. Not a big storm, though.

[gpsnowman]

Only 288 hours out! it's all ice

https://i.ibb.co/X3QNNPw/gfs-mslp-pcpn-frzn-scus-48.png

Saw that. 1057mb high dropping out of Canada on the 15th. It keeps trying to show something in Texas around the 15th-16th (various 6Z and 18Z runs mostly). Very shallow sub-freezing with warm air aloft = sleet, mostly. I'm not inclined to believe it as the GFS has been very inconsistent so far out.

Brent - looks like you may see some snow in Tahoe Wed-Thu. Not a big storm, though.

Do I detect a small hint of winter positivity from our resident heat miser? Perhaps. Regardless, hopefully we can have something to track over the next several days and create some buzz on the forum. Honestly the 40's-60's we have experienced lately are nothing to complain about but man I miss strong cold fronts.

[Johnny]

Man, and I thought last winter was bad. At least last winter we were teased a few times.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

[Brent]

Brent - looks like you may see some snow in Tahoe Wed-Thu. Not a big storm, though.

Yeah the Euro looks really good but honestly I'd be happy with the inch or two the ensemble mean has

Either way I'm driving into the mountains before the snow hits to see some leftover snow and probably going to a ski resort regardless. I'll report back tomorrow sometime on that

[Haris]

[Brent]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/58V7z2t/98196726-1-E80-400-E-BB46-2301-E4668-CD1.png [/url]

just what they need... more rain

[bubba hotep]

Shocking... The King Euro folds the the GFS again on rainfall for DFW. This is the 3rd or 4th event in a row that the Euro had multiple runs showing a legit rain event for DFW while the GFS showed basically nothing only for the Euro to dry DFW out. Even the EPS has folded, but more gradually, going from 1.8" down to 0.5" lol

[South Texas Storms]

Shocking... The King Euro folds the the GFS again on rainfall for DFW. This is the 3rd or 4th event in a row that the Euro had multiple runs showing a legit rain event for DFW while the GFS showed basically nothing only for the Euro to dry DFW out. Even the EPS has folded, but more gradually, going from 1.8" down to 0.5" lol

Did you really expect anything else? This pattern is so bad right now with little to no change in weeks.

I'll take the 18z GFS for mid January please!

[gpsnowman]

Shocking... The King Euro folds the the GFS again on rainfall for DFW. This is the 3rd or 4th event in a row that the Euro had multiple runs showing a legit rain event for DFW while the GFS showed basically nothing only for the Euro to dry DFW out. Even the EPS has folded, but more gradually, going from 1.8" down to 0.5" lol

Did you really expect anything else? This pattern is so bad right now with little to no change in weeks.

I'll take the 18z GFS for mid January please!

Agreed. Snow all the way to Mexico on that run. Yikes.

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS with really cold air into a Texas and widespread snow. This should get this thread going if it continues into the overnight runs: