Texas Winter 2019-2020

Winter Weather Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
Astromanía
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 779
Age: 26
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2018 10:34 pm
Location: Monterrey, N.L, México

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#841 Postby Astromanía » Fri Jan 03, 2020 6:08 am

putting my head on the fridge is cooler than go outside this winter on a front cold :lol:, a winter for the ages! :lol: :lol: :lol: tomorrow an amazing and exciting rain of fire, stay tuned!!!
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22979
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#842 Postby wxman57 » Fri Jan 03, 2020 9:16 am

Here it comes! Big snow event for the D-FW area! Up to 7 inches of snow. Can't believe everyone here isn't all excited about it. Only 12 days out.

Image

Image
4 likes   

gpsnowman
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3186
Joined: Fri Jan 07, 2011 10:35 am
Location: Grand Prairie Tx

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#843 Postby gpsnowman » Fri Jan 03, 2020 9:57 am

wxman57 wrote:Here it comes! Big snow event for the D-FW area! Up to 7 inches of snow. Can't believe everyone here isn't all excited about it. Only 12 days out.

http://wxman57.com/images/snow.png

http://wxman57.com/images/snow2.png

Hey, it's better that 14 days out. I am all in!!!!
2 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22979
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#844 Postby wxman57 » Fri Jan 03, 2020 10:01 am

I'm confident that the GFS is correct, this time!

Image
5 likes   

TarrantWx
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 287
Age: 39
Joined: Thu Jan 30, 2014 10:38 am
Location: Keller, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#845 Postby TarrantWx » Fri Jan 03, 2020 10:19 am

wxman57 wrote:Here it comes! Big snow event for the D-FW area! Up to 7 inches of snow. Can't believe everyone here isn't all excited about it. Only 12 days out.

http://wxman57.com/images/snow.png

http://wxman57.com/images/snow2.png


I'll be in Orlando for work from the 13th-16th. I need this pushed back 2 days, please and thank you. If I miss the first snow event in 4+ years for DFW while I'm in Florida I'm going to need to be committed.
2 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22979
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#846 Postby wxman57 » Fri Jan 03, 2020 12:01 pm

Oh well, never mind about the snow storm for D-FW around mid month. False alarm. Sunny and mild instead. What a surprise...

Image
1 likes   

User avatar
PTrackerLA
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5277
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 8:40 pm
Location: Lafayette, LA

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#847 Postby PTrackerLA » Fri Jan 03, 2020 12:37 pm

Long range GFS continues to show brutally cold air building in Canada and slipping into the Northern plains starting in 8-10 days onward. It would not be hard to imagine a chunk of this arctic air dislodging south in the second half of January but we shall see.
1 likes   

User avatar
Cpv17
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4979
Joined: Wed Dec 07, 2016 2:24 pm
Location: Wharton/El Campo, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#848 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Jan 03, 2020 1:47 pm

PTrackerLA wrote:Long range GFS continues to show brutally cold air building in Canada and slipping into the Northern plains starting in 8-10 days onward. It would not be hard to imagine a chunk of this arctic air dislodging south in the second half of January but we shall see.


It looks to stay locked up there. Not much southern movement. What’s causing that?
0 likes   

User avatar
TheProfessor
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3506
Age: 28
Joined: Tue Dec 03, 2013 10:56 am
Location: Wichita, Kansas

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#849 Postby TheProfessor » Fri Jan 03, 2020 2:00 pm

Bit of a bust with the short range models in how the radar would look like further east of where the heaviest rains were forecasted. We've gotten a lot more rain than what was being predicted.
3 likes   
An alumnus of The Ohio State University.

Your local National Weather Service office is your best source for weather information.

Snowman67
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 633
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 12:44 pm
Location: Tomball, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#850 Postby Snowman67 » Fri Jan 03, 2020 2:51 pm

wxman57 wrote:I'm confident that the GFS is correct, this time!

http://wxman57.com/


No you're not. Only when the long range models show heat are you confident :D
1 likes   
Any forecast I make is based on my opinion only. Please refer to the NWS or NHC for official forecasts.

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8900
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#851 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Jan 03, 2020 3:05 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
PTrackerLA wrote:Long range GFS continues to show brutally cold air building in Canada and slipping into the Northern plains starting in 8-10 days onward. It would not be hard to imagine a chunk of this arctic air dislodging south in the second half of January but we shall see.


It looks to stay locked up there. Not much southern movement. What’s causing that?


A very strong - PNA index. This pattern features deep troughing over the western U.S., which allows cold air from western Canada to drain southward into this region. In the eastern U.S., warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Ocean is able to travel northward, often resulting in above normal temperatures and more humid conditions, and this is is generally occuring right now, and forecast to continue for the next 10-14 days.
3 likes   
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22979
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#852 Postby wxman57 » Fri Jan 03, 2020 3:22 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
PTrackerLA wrote:Long range GFS continues to show brutally cold air building in Canada and slipping into the Northern plains starting in 8-10 days onward. It would not be hard to imagine a chunk of this arctic air dislodging south in the second half of January but we shall see.


It looks to stay locked up there. Not much southern movement. What’s causing that?


I wonder... :firedevil:
1 likes   

gpsnowman
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3186
Joined: Fri Jan 07, 2011 10:35 am
Location: Grand Prairie Tx

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#853 Postby gpsnowman » Fri Jan 03, 2020 3:23 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
PTrackerLA wrote:Long range GFS continues to show brutally cold air building in Canada and slipping into the Northern plains starting in 8-10 days onward. It would not be hard to imagine a chunk of this arctic air dislodging south in the second half of January but we shall see.


It looks to stay locked up there. Not much southern movement. What’s causing that?


I wonder... :firedevil:

Wxman 57, do you have an off day from work today? Just curious. :D
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22979
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#854 Postby wxman57 » Fri Jan 03, 2020 4:06 pm

gpsnowman wrote:Wxman 57, do you have an off day from work today? Just curious. :D


I'm always watching.
1 likes   

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38090
Age: 36
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#855 Postby Brent » Fri Jan 03, 2020 4:15 pm

northjaxpro wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
PTrackerLA wrote:Long range GFS continues to show brutally cold air building in Canada and slipping into the Northern plains starting in 8-10 days onward. It would not be hard to imagine a chunk of this arctic air dislodging south in the second half of January but we shall see.


It looks to stay locked up there. Not much southern movement. What’s causing that?


A very strong - PNA index. This pattern features deep troughing over the western U.S., which allows cold air from western Canada to drain southward into this region. In the eastern U.S., warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Ocean is able to travel northward, often resulting in above normal temperatures and more humid conditions, and this is is generally occuring right now, and forecast to continue for the next 10-14 days.


At least we're sort of seasonal here

It's nearly 80 in coastal Carolina :double:

But it looks like the pattern will be stuck through mid month

Oh and I thought we wanted a -PNA lol
0 likes   
#neversummer

gpsnowman
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3186
Joined: Fri Jan 07, 2011 10:35 am
Location: Grand Prairie Tx

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#856 Postby gpsnowman » Fri Jan 03, 2020 4:34 pm

I was looking at the Great Lakes ice report and nearly 100% of all 5 lakes are ice free. Small pockets of ice exist but that is it. Amazing for this time of year. Winter hasn't shown up in a lot of places.
2 likes   

User avatar
bubba hotep
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5837
Joined: Wed Dec 28, 2016 1:00 am
Location: Collin County Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#857 Postby bubba hotep » Fri Jan 03, 2020 4:55 pm

It's amazing how stable the D11 Super Ensemble Analog Composite has been over the past week.
0 likes   
Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

gpsnowman
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3186
Joined: Fri Jan 07, 2011 10:35 am
Location: Grand Prairie Tx

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#858 Postby gpsnowman » Fri Jan 03, 2020 5:00 pm

Brent wrote:
northjaxpro wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
It looks to stay locked up there. Not much southern movement. What’s causing that?


A very strong - PNA index. This pattern features deep troughing over the western U.S., which allows cold air from western Canada to drain southward into this region. In the eastern U.S., warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Ocean is able to travel northward, often resulting in above normal temperatures and more humid conditions, and this is is generally occuring right now, and forecast to continue for the next 10-14 days.


At least we're sort of seasonal here

It's nearly 80 in coastal Carolina :double:

But it looks like the pattern will be stuck through mid month

Oh and I thought we wanted a -PNA lol

Anyone see the forecasted highs next week along the east coast? Widespread 70's reaching close to Philadelphia.
0 likes   

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38090
Age: 36
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#859 Postby Brent » Fri Jan 03, 2020 5:04 pm

gpsnowman wrote:
Brent wrote:
northjaxpro wrote:
A very strong - PNA index. This pattern features deep troughing over the western U.S., which allows cold air from western Canada to drain southward into this region. In the eastern U.S., warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Ocean is able to travel northward, often resulting in above normal temperatures and more humid conditions, and this is is generally occuring right now, and forecast to continue for the next 10-14 days.


At least we're sort of seasonal here

It's nearly 80 in coastal Carolina :double:

But it looks like the pattern will be stuck through mid month

Oh and I thought we wanted a -PNA lol

Anyone see the forecasted highs next week along the east coast? Widespread 70's reaching close to Philadelphia.


yeah so glad I'm going to Lake Tahoe instead of back up the east coast again next week. :lol: May not be as snowy as it could be but at least there will be snow :double:
2 likes   
#neversummer

User avatar
ThunderSleetDreams
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1477
Age: 43
Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2011 4:42 pm
Location: S of Weimar, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#860 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Fri Jan 03, 2020 6:25 pm

Brent wrote:
northjaxpro wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
It looks to stay locked up there. Not much southern movement. What’s causing that?


A very strong - PNA index. This pattern features deep troughing over the western U.S., which allows cold air from western Canada to drain southward into this region. In the eastern U.S., warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Ocean is able to travel northward, often resulting in above normal temperatures and more humid conditions, and this is is generally occuring right now, and forecast to continue for the next 10-14 days.


At least we're sort of seasonal here

It's nearly 80 in coastal Carolina :double:

But it looks like the pattern will be stuck through mid month

Oh and I thought we wanted a -PNA lol


In regards to the PNA, a slightly negative to neutral is our sweet spot for storms and not letting the coldest air slide east
2 likes   
#NeverSummer

I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!


Return to “Winter Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 8 guests