Texas Winter 2019-2020

[Parker_County1]

That is my father in the photo of the December 20-21, 1929 snowstorm! He is still living and remembers the storm well.

I would post the photo, but I don't know how. Maybe one of you can.

https://www.kwtx.com/content/news/State ... 67303.html

I may have a better photo somewhere.

[Cpv17]

Well for once, the Euro finally has a decent rain event, but it’s in fantasy land

[weatherdude1108]

I got roughly 0.4" here, in the 40s, at the Weatherdude abode today. An inch would be nice, but I'll take what I can get.

[harp]

One HELL of a nor'easter showing up on the 0Z GFS for Jan 2-4. Nothing much else to look at....

[Brent]

One HELL of a nor'easter showing up on the 0Z GFS for Jan 2-4. Nothing much else to look at....

It's all east of us of course

[wxman57]

Interesting - GFS doesn't even have any temps in the 30s between DFW & Houston through the weekend after Christmas. Highs in the 70s some days. Time for some bike riding!

Long range, I'm not seeing any big pattern change through the first week of January. I see Michael Ventrice tweeting about ECMWF predictions of sudden stratospheric warming over Siberia in 15 days. Talking about some cold air finally moving south mid to late January. Hopefully, not down here!

[gpsnowman]

A 70 popping up for Christmas day. What a bummer. Warm and humid Christmas days need to go away forever. We have had too many of those the last few years. Hopefully the new year brings us some winter hope.

[Cerlin]

I think I’m about to fall into tropical depression after looking at the models the past week or so...I’m glad the dynamics and the source region look a lot more promising than last year but man I’m about couple weeks away from calling a winter cancel.

[harp]

I think I’m about to fall into tropical depression after looking at the models the past week or so...I’m glad the dynamics and the source region look a lot more promising than last year but man I’m about couple weeks away from calling a winter cancel.

Can't cancel winter on the first day!

[Cpv17]

I think I’m about to fall into tropical depression after looking at the models the past week or so...I’m glad the dynamics and the source region look a lot more promising than last year but man I’m about couple weeks away from calling a winter cancel.

Can't cancel winter on the first day!

Every season needs to be pushed back by a good 2 or 3 weeks, honestly. I mean, do you really think we would have a better chance at seeing cold in the first half of March or the first half of December? All 3 snow events in my life happened in December with 2 of them being within the first 10 days of the month.

[Texas Snowman]

I think I’m about to fall into tropical depression after looking at the models the past week or so...I’m glad the dynamics and the source region look a lot more promising than last year but man I’m about couple weeks away from calling a winter cancel.

Can't cancel winter on the first day!

Winter cancel talk...12 hours BEFORE the Winter Solstice actually takes place.

[Brent]

I think I’m about to fall into tropical depression after looking at the models the past week or so...I’m glad the dynamics and the source region look a lot more promising than last year but man I’m about couple weeks away from calling a winter cancel.

yeah everything semi-interesting is stuck in fantasy land

still zero GEFS members with any snow

and the EPS has nothing until day 14

[TropicalTundra]

Seems like around early Jan. would be good for a event. Very below temperatures with average precip

[bubba hotep]

Euro now has a legit system moving into the 7 day range but we still need it to eject out across Texas (current solution) and not cut sharply North coming out of Mexico.

[Cerlin]

Let me be clear...I’m not calling winter cancel now!!!

However...if the pattern looks the same as last year and doesn’t show genuine signs of getting better in the next couple of weeks or so...((winter cancel))

[Ntxw]

Euro now has a legit system moving into the 7 day range but we still need it to eject out across Texas (current solution) and not cut sharply North coming out of Mexico.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2019122112/ecmwf_z500aNorm_namer_8.png

I have been traveling this season and haven't had a chance to post much for a bit. December SOI so far is reverse of last year. Even though last year was a Nino, the very + soi back then indicated a warmer Jan/Feb. This year the SOI is mostly - (long term) thus it is more like a canonical Nino even though the tropical Pacific isn't as warm as last year. This suspects that we will progress more like a canonical Nino the rest of this winter.

[Astromanía]

For me winter is December, January and February, all the snow I have seen in my city Monterrey ocurred in December: 12/08/2017 and 12/24/2004, others ocurred only in the mountains more frecuently but pretty sure they happened mostly on december or janurary. March it's not cold, even November tend to be cooler than March so climatologically I think those months are the real Winter season while astronomic winter is from 21th December to 21th March.

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

BTW, it’s time to start keeping an eye on DFW and Jan 1 because of the NHL Winter Classic.

[Brent]

Euro now has a legit system moving into the 7 day range but we still need it to eject out across Texas (current solution) and not cut sharply North coming out of Mexico.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2019122112/ecmwf_z500aNorm_namer_8.png

Will there be any cold air though

[Cpv17]

Euro now has a legit system moving into the 7 day range but we still need it to eject out across Texas (current solution) and not cut sharply North coming out of Mexico.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2019122112/ecmwf_z500aNorm_namer_8.png

Will there be any cold air though

It doesn’t look like it.