Texas Winter 2019-2020

[Toadfrog]

82 degrees forecast for Round Rock area on Sunday. My A/C system is confused.

[Brent]

82 degrees forecast for Round Rock area on Sunday. My A/C system is confused.

gotta love Texas, record cold in mid November now this

[Yukon Cornelius]

[bubba hotep]

12z GEFS continues the trend of shifting NAM into a more favorable state as we head into late Dec. The IOD relaxing should finally allow for the MJO to play a bigger role in the modulation of tropical convection in areas that positively influence or winter weather. Maybe we finally break through in January?

5-day GEFS mean

[sphelps8681]

Does anyone have an Idea of weather for 12/31=1/3. Headed to the coast near Galveston on those days.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Does anyone have an Idea of weather for 12/31=1/3. Headed to the coast near Galveston on those days.

Not in range yet... but my guess is it will be cool to cold based on what the Pacific is doing in the long ramge

[TropicalTundra]

Does anyone have an Idea of weather for 12/31=1/3. Headed to the coast near Galveston on those days.

mostly likely mild to cool weather with some sunlight After that though it seems there will be a possible snow event with a cold blob of air and some moisture. Old Farmers Almanac proves it too https://www.almanac.com/weather/longrange/region/us/11

[Brent]

12z GEFS continues the trend of shifting NAM into a more favorable state as we head into late Dec. The IOD relaxing should finally allow for the MJO to play a bigger role in the modulation of tropical convection in areas that positively influence or winter weather. Maybe we finally break through in January?

5-day GEFS mean

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2019121312/gfs-ens_z500aMean_namer_12.png

The real question is will it look like this inside 7 days

[TropicalTundra]

GFS is updating... let’s see what changes

[bubba hotep]

12z GEFS continues the trend of shifting NAM into a more favorable state as we head into late Dec. The IOD relaxing should finally allow for the MJO to play a bigger role in the modulation of tropical convection in areas that positively influence or winter weather. Maybe we finally break through in January?

5-day GEFS mean

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2019121312/gfs-ens_z500aMean_namer_12.png

The real question is will it look like this inside 7 days

I have more confidence that higher heights will return to the EPO region than I do of blocking on tbe Atlantic side.

[Kennethb]

Does anyone have an Idea of weather for 12/31=1/3. Headed to the coast near Galveston on those days.

The way things are looking now, bring your sunscreen, shorts, sunglasses, and swim suit.

[TropicalTundra]

GFS is still boring

[sphelps8681]

Does anyone have an Idea of weather for 12/31=1/3. Headed to the coast near Galveston on those days.

The way things are looking now, bring your sunscreen, shorts, sunglasses, and swim suit.

That sounds awesome. Then when I get back bring on winter!!

[Brent]

GFS is still boring

You know it's boring when not a single GFS ensemble has snow for DFW in the next 10 days

[CaptinCrunch]

Looking forward to Mondays cold front and a few chilly days afterwards. After that back to the 60s and dry through next weekend.

[Brent]

It looks like next week will be cold for sure but then moderate towards above normal temps in the leadup to Christmas not much of a rain chance here

There is still hints of a rain event of some kind around Christmas and then possibly much colder after but this is super long range where luck has not been on our side

[Snowman67]

Just checked - we were 61 pages into our Texas Winter thread at this time last year. Hopefully January weather will help us catch up....

[Cpv17]

Just checked - we were 61 pages into our Texas Winter thread at this time last year. Hopefully January weather will help us catch up....

Last winter=the hype that was all for nothing lol

[bubba hotep]

About the only good thing from the overnight models is that both the Euro EPS and GEFS agree on a western trough in the longer range and returning rain chances for Texas. However, true cold air looks like it will continue to be hard to find. Looks like we will be pushing the goal post into January for our first legit winter weather threat for DFW.

[bubba hotep]

Just checked - we were 61 pages into our Texas Winter thread at this time last year. Hopefully January weather will help us catch up....

Last winter=the hype that was all for nothing lol

I would have to go back and look but, IIRC, the long-range and seasonal signals were very favorable for winter weather but we could never get that pattern to move into the mid-range. So there were lots of pages speculating about how awesome the winter looked and we kept failing.