Texas Winter 2019-2020

[CaptinCrunch]

So what does this all mean for you the citizen? Most likely, we`ll just see a few snowflakes mixing in with rain on Tuesday morning. It will be mildly exciting, but most likely not enough to cause any significant disruptions. Having said that, the potential does exist for some locally enhanced snowfall, with maximum totals in a few spots potentially approaching or exceeding an inch. This means you will want to keep an eye on the forecast. Check back later this evening, and get up early on Tuesday to see what`s going on. Winter weather is notoriously difficult to forecast, even with the major technological advances in the last couple of decades. It`s even harder in these "marginal" setups that often occur in North Texas. The best course of action is to be prepared for the "reasonable high end scenario", which would include the possibility of some light snow accumulations that could result in some minor impacts to travel.

Gotta love the folks @ NWS FTW

[Cerlin]

If this overperforms in some areas, what’s the maximum of the outcomes? Euro seems to think it’s localized bands of 3 inches.

[Ntxw]

If this overperforms in some areas, what’s the maximum of the outcomes? Euro seems to think it’s localized bands of 3 inches.

Higher elevations west and southwest is where that may happen. Along and east of I-35 a slushy trace-1" on grass is probably the top end if that. The faster the changeover the greater the odds.

[rwfromkansas]

Just got curious since my hometown in Kansas often did fine with marginal events. Its elevation is 1,000 feet higher than Fort Worth despite being right off 35. I then looked at Midland, where we lived before here. It’s basically 2,500 feet, so even easier there. You can use 546 thickness for snow in Midland.

[bubba hotep]

06z Euro, Euro EPS, and Control all right at 1" for DFW.

[Cerlin]

06z Euro, Euro EPS, and Control all right at 1" for DFW.

What’s the temperatures looking like? Same as the last few runs?

[wxman57]

So what does this all mean for you the citizen? Most likely, we`ll just see a few snowflakes mixing in with rain on Tuesday morning. It will be mildly exciting, but most likely not enough to cause any significant disruptions. Having said that, the potential does exist for some locally enhanced snowfall, with maximum totals in a few spots potentially approaching or exceeding an inch. This means you will want to keep an eye on the forecast. Check back later this evening, and get up early on Tuesday to see what`s going on. Winter weather is notoriously difficult to forecast, even with the major technological advances in the last couple of decades. It`s even harder in these "marginal" setups that often occur in North Texas. The best course of action is to be prepared for the "reasonable high end scenario", which would include the possibility of some light snow accumulations that could result in some minor impacts to travel.

Gotta love the folks @ NWS FTW

Good assessment, as my cold-mongering coworkers and I were just discussing. Precip is ending in the DFW area JUST as the air in the lower 8000 ft gets close to freezing. Rain possibly mixed with a few flakes as the precip ends near sunrise tomorrow. It's always a close call as far as accumulating snow. The slightest change aloft could mean significant accumulations. The good news is that it's looking like we'll have a nice, warm Christmas!

[Cerlin]

12z HRRR, 00z WRF ARW1 are not showing solutions involving snow for the metroplex. 12z 12km NAM and 12z 3km NAM have small bits of flurries at the tail end of it, while the ARW2 and NMM WRF models show localized heavy snowfall with the entire metroplex having a solid chance. RGEM has considerable amount of snow but all West and North of DFW. GFS and Euro maintain their showing of about an inch. None of the high res models are really buying the snow solution as of right now but that could change in the next 6-12 hours

[ThunderSleetDreams]

So what does this all mean for you the citizen? Most likely, we`ll just see a few snowflakes mixing in with rain on Tuesday morning. It will be mildly exciting, but most likely not enough to cause any significant disruptions. Having said that, the potential does exist for some locally enhanced snowfall, with maximum totals in a few spots potentially approaching or exceeding an inch. This means you will want to keep an eye on the forecast. Check back later this evening, and get up early on Tuesday to see what`s going on. Winter weather is notoriously difficult to forecast, even with the major technological advances in the last couple of decades. It`s even harder in these "marginal" setups that often occur in North Texas. The best course of action is to be prepared for the "reasonable high end scenario", which would include the possibility of some light snow accumulations that could result in some minor impacts to travel.

Gotta love the folks @ NWS FTW

Good assessment, as my cold-mongering coworkers and I were just discussing. Precip is ending in the DFW area JUST as the air in the lower 8000 ft gets close to freezing. Rain possibly mixed with a few flakes as the precip ends near sunrise tomorrow. It's always a close call as far as accumulating snow. The slightest change aloft could mean significant accumulations. The good news is that it's looking like we'll have a nice, warm Christmas!

Yeah, I'm not seeing that with the TCs and Christmas is just coming into the hourly panes on the GFS (Christmas morning is hr 384). Yes, we know it will all change, but EPO is headed toward neutral, PNA is negative and and NAO relaxes. I'm not seeing a warm Christmas, at all. Maybe seasonal.

Here is the 384 hr pane, as if it means anything.

[bubba hotep]

So what does this all mean for you the citizen? Most likely, we`ll just see a few snowflakes mixing in with rain on Tuesday morning. It will be mildly exciting, but most likely not enough to cause any significant disruptions. Having said that, the potential does exist for some locally enhanced snowfall, with maximum totals in a few spots potentially approaching or exceeding an inch. This means you will want to keep an eye on the forecast. Check back later this evening, and get up early on Tuesday to see what`s going on. Winter weather is notoriously difficult to forecast, even with the major technological advances in the last couple of decades. It`s even harder in these "marginal" setups that often occur in North Texas. The best course of action is to be prepared for the "reasonable high end scenario", which would include the possibility of some light snow accumulations that could result in some minor impacts to travel.

Gotta love the folks @ NWS FTW

Good assessment, as my cold-mongering coworkers and I were just discussing. Precip is ending in the DFW area JUST as the air in the lower 8000 ft gets close to freezing. Rain possibly mixed with a few flakes as the precip ends near sunrise tomorrow. It's always a close call as far as accumulating snow. The slightest change aloft could mean significant accumulations. The good news is that it's looking like we'll have a nice, warm Christmas!

12z HREF & 9z SERF & 6z Experimental HRRR all dry DFW out before there is any serious snow potential. This would be pretty consistent with these setups in the past. Also, the Euro still appears to hang precipitation back too long in the cold air even after the latest upgrade to the model. Not very encouraging trends but we should be used to this by now lol

[Cerlin]

Yeah unfortunately I think the precipitation is going to outrun any cold air unless temperatures bust by a couple degrees

[starsfan65]

So what does this all mean for you the citizen? Most likely, we`ll just see a few snowflakes mixing in with rain on Tuesday morning. It will be mildly exciting, but most likely not enough to cause any significant disruptions. Having said that, the potential does exist for some locally enhanced snowfall, with maximum totals in a few spots potentially approaching or exceeding an inch. This means you will want to keep an eye on the forecast. Check back later this evening, and get up early on Tuesday to see what`s going on. Winter weather is notoriously difficult to forecast, even with the major technological advances in the last couple of decades. It`s even harder in these "marginal" setups that often occur in North Texas. The best course of action is to be prepared for the "reasonable high end scenario", which would include the possibility of some light snow accumulations that could result in some minor impacts to travel.

Gotta love the folks @ NWS FTW

Good assessment, as my cold-mongering coworkers and I were just discussing. Precip is ending in the DFW area JUST as the air in the lower 8000 ft gets close to freezing. Rain possibly mixed with a few flakes as the precip ends near sunrise tomorrow. It's always a close call as far as accumulating snow. The slightest change aloft could mean significant accumulations. The good news is that it's looking like we'll have a nice, warm Christmas!

12z HREF & 9z SERF & 6z Experimental HRRR all dry DFW out before there is any serious snow potential. This would be pretty consistent with these setups in the past. Also, the Euro still appears to hang precipitation back too long in the cold air even after the latest upgrade to the model. Not very encouraging trends but we should be used to this by now lol

I ain't giving up hope.

[rwfromkansas]

I am just simply stunned the trend is bad as we get close. Oh, actually that's expected. lol

[Cerlin]

This is why I was skeptical from the beginning. The models always lose support right before the event. I’m surprised the globals haven’t yet but if the Euro loses it at the 12z I won’t be shocked. I just checked and the only non long range model showing decent support is the WRF NMM which hasn’t proven to be the most effective. The lack of true support from both the NAM and then HRRR is extremely discouraging. At this point we just have to hope the models are wrong, which happens, but it never seems to be wrong in the right way.

EDIT: I think I’m understating the NAM because it is genuinely still showing snow for northern DFW but it’s been getting progressively worse every run.

[Ralph's Weather]

This is why I was skeptical from the beginning. The models always lose support right before the event. I’m surprised the globals haven’t yet but if the Euro loses it at the 12z I won’t be shocked. I just checked and the only non long range model showing decent support is the WRF NMM which hasn’t proven to be the most effective. The lack of true support from both the NAM and then HRRR is extremely discouraging. At this point we just have to hope the models are wrong, which happens, but it never seems to be wrong in the right way.

EDIT: I think I’m understating the NAM because it is genuinely still showing snow for northern DFW but it’s been getting progressively worse every run.

It is just such a borderline event temp wise. A degree or two colder at any point in the lower 8,000 feet and we could see accumulating snow.

[weatherdude1108]

All this talk of snow, and I stumbled upon an article a friend of mine shared about snowflakes. Fascinating!

Macro photos of snowflakes show impossibly perfect designs
https://www.treehugger.com/natural-scie ... MhCMQB3HCQ

[Cerlin]

This is why I was skeptical from the beginning. The models always lose support right before the event. I’m surprised the globals haven’t yet but if the Euro loses it at the 12z I won’t be shocked. I just checked and the only non long range model showing decent support is the WRF NMM which hasn’t proven to be the most effective. The lack of true support from both the NAM and then HRRR is extremely discouraging. At this point we just have to hope the models are wrong, which happens, but it never seems to be wrong in the right way.

EDIT: I think I’m understating the NAM because it is genuinely still showing snow for northern DFW but it’s been getting progressively worse every run.

It is just such a borderline event temp wise. A degree or two colder at any point in the lower 8,000 feet and we could see accumulating snow.

Agreed. And it’s hard for me not to be skeptical because we’ve had so many events like this and we’re always on the underachieving side

[Ralph's Weather]

This is why I was skeptical from the beginning. The models always lose support right before the event. I’m surprised the globals haven’t yet but if the Euro loses it at the 12z I won’t be shocked. I just checked and the only non long range model showing decent support is the WRF NMM which hasn’t proven to be the most effective. The lack of true support from both the NAM and then HRRR is extremely discouraging. At this point we just have to hope the models are wrong, which happens, but it never seems to be wrong in the right way.

EDIT: I think I’m understating the NAM because it is genuinely still showing snow for northern DFW but it’s been getting progressively worse every run.

It is just such a borderline event temp wise. A degree or two colder at any point in the lower 8,000 feet and we could see accumulating snow.

Agreed. And it’s hard for me not to be skeptical because we’ve had so many events like this and we’re always on the underachieving side

Agreed precip usually moves out but this one seems to be more about temps so I have a touch more confidence in it. I could see the area between Fort Worth and Abilene getting hammered though with their elevation. For I-35 east it looks to be a rain, sleet and slushy globs of snowflakes type event where it briefly accumulates in convective bands.

[Cerlin]

It is just such a borderline event temp wise. A degree or two colder at any point in the lower 8,000 feet and we could see accumulating snow.

Agreed. And it’s hard for me not to be skeptical because we’ve had so many events like this and we’re always on the underachieving side

Agreed precip usually moves out but this one seems to be more about temps so I have a touch more confidence in it. I could see the area between Fort Worth and Abilene getting hammered though with their elevation. For I-35 east it looks to be a rain, sleet and slushy globs of snowflakes type event where it briefly accumulates in convective bands.

I think this has probably the best circumstances to overachieve of any system we’ve had in the last 3 years too thankfully. Regardless the pattern still looks nice for the rest of the December so I don’t think this will be the only shot we have.

[gpsnowman]

We may strikeout this at bat but winter is far from over. Winter has barely hit it's stride across the hemisphere. The full potential of the season is near, closer to January and February. Pockets of cold and snow have hit parts of the nation thus far with the meat of winter coming the next couple months. Long way to go folks.