Texas Winter 2019-2020

[Cerlin]

18z GFS is a no go again and it's not even close

Idk, it just looks like it’s been pushed back to me. Still wintry weather but it’s on the 17th instead.

Lol isn't it always pushed back though

Always

That being said, it looks to me like the GFS is trending closer and closer to Tuesday night being potentially interesting as well. Looks like a thin snow line develops in east Texas around then...the results of the anticipated pattern sure are varying run to run but as harp said I like the pattern and there’s multiple chances for this to line up (even though it never actually does)

[Brent]

I only counted 5(out of 20) 18z GFS ensembles with snow for DFW through day 10 and 3 of them are for Tuesday Night...

[Cerlin]

I only counted 5(out of 20) 18z GFS ensembles with snow for DFW through day 10 and 3 of them are for Tuesday Night...

Yeah that’s not very good, let’s just hope it was an off run

[Brent]

I only counted 5(out of 20) 18z GFS ensembles with snow for DFW through day 10 and 3 of them are for Tuesday Night...

Yeah that’s not very good, let’s just hope it was an off run

Everytime I've looked it's been no more than 7 or 8 hasn't ever been great to me

[bubba hotep]

Most encouraging run of the Euro Weeklies in a while.

[Cerlin]

Hey this isn’t near as disappointing as the Cowboy’s are right now...

[hamburgerman7070]

Most encouraging run of the Euro Weeklies in a while.

Bubba. Do you know much about a standing wave in the indian ocean? I read about it today that it needs to weaken. Also, the IOD has been positive and i thought that promotes mjo in 8-2 phases. Mjo is still not moving much.

[Brent]

Hey this isn’t near as disappointing as the Cowboy’s are right now...

Yeah, what in the world?

Most encouraging run of the Euro Weeklies in a while.

how far out is the encouragement?

[hamburgerman7070]

We have a ways to go ladies and gentlemen. Pattern isn't conducive for winter events yet. Ao and nao are positive, which isn't good. Another thing is if the euro is not showing cold or a winter storm, we must definitely be cautious looking at other things. Euro has a great track record so keep that in mind.

[gpsnowman]

I despise 70's in winter. A couple more in the forecast before next week's cool down then a stretch of 30's-50's for several days. I can live with that but I would like to see some rain. The cold will come at some point.

[Ntxw]

Definitely worth watching early to mid next week. Shortwave in the southwest if stronger or ejects differently may pose some possible non-zero chance for wintry precip (northern tier of the state). Still wiggle room ahead but best to keep expectations low, however it's not a terrible set up for surprises.

[Ralph's Weather]

Definitely worth watching early to mid next week. Shortwave in the southwest if stronger or ejects differently may pose some possible non-zero chance for wintry precip (northern tier of the state). Still wiggle room ahead but best to keep expectations low, however it's not a terrible set up for surprises.

Just seems to be too much +PNA which has killed us the past few years.

[CaptinCrunch]

Definitely worth watching early to mid next week. Shortwave in the southwest if stronger or ejects differently may pose some possible non-zero chance for wintry precip (northern tier of the state). Still wiggle room ahead but best to keep expectations low, however it's not a terrible set up for surprises.

Just seems to be too much +PNA which has killed us the past few years.

looking at the PNA, AO, and NAO forecast the PNA and AO are both on track to plung after the 16th of December with the some PNA charts showing the type of drop it had in November. The NAO also shows a decline but not as pronounced as the PNA and AO. We could see the back half of December heading into the holidays to be on the cold side of the force.

[Cpv17]

Definitely worth watching early to mid next week. Shortwave in the southwest if stronger or ejects differently may pose some possible non-zero chance for wintry precip (northern tier of the state). Still wiggle room ahead but best to keep expectations low, however it's not a terrible set up for surprises.

Just seems to be too much +PNA which has killed us the past few years.

looking at the PNA, AO, and NAO forecast the PNA and AO are both on track to plung after the 16th of December with the some PNA charts showing the type of drop it had in November. The NAO also shows a decline but not as pronounced as the PNA and AO. We could see the back half of December heading into the holidays to be on the cold side of the force.

I’ll believe it when I see it lol

[harp]

Check out the 12Z GFS.....major cold with some precip....

[Cerlin]

Check out the 12Z GFS.....major cold with some precip....

Yes except it’s a week later...very exciting model watching except it keeps getting delayed. I’m not gonna buy into it until it’s 5 or less days out.

[Brent]

Just seems to be too much +PNA which has killed us the past few years.

looking at the PNA, AO, and NAO forecast the PNA and AO are both on track to plung after the 16th of December with the some PNA charts showing the type of drop it had in November. The NAO also shows a decline but not as pronounced as the PNA and AO. We could see the back half of December heading into the holidays to be on the cold side of the force.

I’ll believe it when I see it lol

Lol you sound like me

Is the great pattern ever gonna get closer in time??

[Ralph's Weather]

Looks like we have a pretty consistent -EPO so the cold will be there just need to PNA to not shoot positive with every storm. That may happen after next week, but I want to see it in the sub 5 day range before I bite on it.

[funster]

There seem to way more acorns than usual this year in North Dallas. Some trees have tons more. A "mast year" according to botanists. Maybe the trees know something.
https://www.cjr.org/language_corner/mast-bumper-crop-acorn.php

[Brent]

Looks like we have a pretty consistent -EPO so the cold will be there just need to PNA to not shoot positive with every storm. That may happen after next week, but I want to see it in the sub 5 day range before I bite on it.

The stupid +PNA keeps killing us it's annoying