NCEP/GMB SST anomaly forecast through July 2004

[Stormsfury]

El Niño to make a full return around 2004 IF this forecast verifies.

[rainstorm]

hurricane season cancel

[CocoaBill]

Does that mean a slow hurricane season next year?

[Anonymous]

It does not mean a slow hurricane season at all. Even if it does, I remember 1992 being a slow season, oh what was that little "A" named storm that popped up?

[Stormsfury]

It does not mean a slow hurricane season at all. Even if it does, I remember 1992 being a slow season, oh what was that little "A" named storm that popped up?

Just because an El Niño is progged doesn't mean that anyone should let there guard down next season ... the overall projected numbers will be likely reduced.

Andrew in 1992 ... El Niño year, in which the rest of the season was about as dull as watching paint dry.

Alicia in 1983 ... One of only 4 storms to develop that year and it's original origins weren't tropical to begin with in the GOM.

El Niño correlations ... generally less storms, hurricanes, and reduced potential for majors. However, just like in 1992, or 1983, or 1997 (Erika), they take the full advantage of the strengthening window to the fullest. 2002 was an interesting year. Yes, there were 12 storms, but only 4 hurricanes, and 2 majors. So the overall number of hurricanes were reduced and the number of average storm days but the overall total number of storms wasn't.

[Josephine96]

Yep. El Nino's don't mean anything. Andrew was an El Nino storm and look at the capitulation he did. Be alert even during slow seasons.

[stormchazer]

It only takes one hurricane. Andrew was during an El Nino year.

[Stormsfury]

It only takes one hurricane. Andrew was during an El Nino year.

You beat me to it. That's right. It only takes one.

[rainstorm]

of course, it could be like 97, or 94. the paint dried twice those seasons.

[Andrew92]

of course, it could be like 97, or 94. the paint dried twice those seasons.

It should be noted in 1994 that there were Alberto and Gordon. Alberto probably didn't deserve to be retired, but it definitely receives special mention for the flooding it caused in Georgia and Alabama, killing 30 people. As for Gordon, that name should have been retired for all the damage and deaths it caused in Haiti.

Sure neither one developed into MAJOR hurricanes (heck Alberto didn't even become one ever), but 1994 definitely had those two storms as highlights.

-Andrew92

[Stormsfury]

of course, it could be like 97, or 94. the paint dried twice those seasons.

It should be noted in 1994 that there were Alberto and Gordon. Alberto probably didn't deserve to be retired, but it definitely receives special mention for the flooding it caused in Georgia and Alabama, killing 30 people. As for Gordon, that name should have been retired for all the damage and deaths it caused in Haiti.

Sure neither one developed into MAJOR hurricanes (heck Alberto didn't even become one ever), but 1994 definitely had those two storms as highlights.

-Andrew92

Alberto in 1994 was the first tropical storm in history to record over a billion dollars in damage. Very severe flooding in GA/AL. Definitely could have been considered for retirement.

SF

[rainstorm]

but both were very dead seasons. with so many double digit seasons in a row, we are likely to see little activity next season if this verifies

[rainstorm]

good news. while you cant totally write off a rare rogue storm like andrew, a strong el nino would make it much more likely that we will have 5 seasons in a row without a major cane hit in the us