Which model scores the best? and worst?

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Stormsfury
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Which model scores the best? and worst?

#1 Postby Stormsfury » Sat Oct 25, 2003 6:36 pm

Well ... the best ... The ECMWF ...

The worst ... NOGAPS ....

Image
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ColdFront77

#2 Postby ColdFront77 » Sat Oct 25, 2003 7:04 pm

Are we supposed to know what were looking at on these graphs?

My understanding of things is good and these things posted at times makes it difficult for me to think that those posting it know what they mean. No offense.

I will probably regret posting this.
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#3 Postby wxman57 » Sat Oct 25, 2003 7:23 pm

Don't feel bad, CF, I haven't a clue what the graphic means either. :wink:
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#4 Postby Stormsfury » Sat Oct 25, 2003 7:36 pm

Oops ... BEST possible score is a 1 ...

Anomaly correlations for 5-day forecasts of 500-hPa heights for various models verifying during the last 31 days. Average values and number of forecasts are shown in insets.

The anomaly correlation score measures the ability of a numerical forecast to represent general weather patterns of high pressure ridges and low pressure troughs, and the locations and strengths of fronts and major storms. It has a maximum value of 1.0 (a perfect depiction of the location of major weather systems), while a score above 0.6 is still considered useful by forecasters. It is universally accepted as a standard score by international weather modeling centers and the World Meteorological Organization.
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ColdFront77

#5 Postby ColdFront77 » Sat Oct 25, 2003 7:53 pm

Thank you SF. My apologies for my remarks above.

I am sure there are many things out there that some of us here at Storm2K would love to learn about to together, if we don't already know.

Discussing the various issues in meteorology we learn here together may be beneficial for discussions here on the board and in private on IM, PM, e-mail would be beneficial for a lot of us. :)
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Anonymous

If you mean....

#6 Postby Anonymous » Sat Oct 25, 2003 8:04 pm

If you mean which model ythis year was most reliable, I'd say the BAMM.
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Re: If you mean....

#7 Postby Stormsfury » Sat Oct 25, 2003 8:18 pm

~Floydbuster wrote:If you mean which model ythis year was most reliable, I'd say the BAMM.


I don't have the tropical models verification numbers handy. In regards to overall track and forecast margins of error ... I believe it the GFDL that has performed the best ... but I need to find the verification numbers...

I kinda accidentally posted this topic in the wrong forum. The globals and this graphic represent the 500mb heights verification (the overall pattern regime from 20ºN and northward ... dealing with the extratropical regions)

SF
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Josephine96

#8 Postby Josephine96 » Sat Oct 25, 2003 9:24 pm

I don't know much about the models except where they track. If 1 ends up being right. Woo hoo.. I just don't know much about models or efficiencies of them.
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#9 Postby Stormsfury » Sat Oct 25, 2003 9:39 pm

Josephine96 wrote:I don't know much about the models except where they track. If 1 ends up being right. Woo hoo.. I just don't know much about models or efficiencies of them.


Models are used for guidance . An overall picture of the pattern. It's up to the forecaster to determine, what model, if any are right, and/or take a consensus and decipher the idea of what they're telling us.

SF
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#10 Postby stormchazer » Sat Oct 25, 2003 10:06 pm

They all give us general ideas....nothing more.
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The posts or stuff said are NOT an official forecast and my opinion alone. Please look to the NHC and NWS for official forecasts and products.

Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged

Opinions my own.
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ColdFront77

#11 Postby ColdFront77 » Sat Oct 25, 2003 11:39 pm

Stormsfury wrote:Models are used for guidance. An overall picture of the pattern. It's up to the forecaster to determine, what model, if any are right, and/or take a consensus and decipher the idea of what they're telling us.

SF

I said this a few times over the last several months.
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Josephine96

#12 Postby Josephine96 » Sun Oct 26, 2003 8:59 am

Yes Tom.. I believe you have said that a lot these last few months lol
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ColdFront77

#13 Postby ColdFront77 » Sun Oct 26, 2003 4:34 pm

Someone read/remembered. :wink: :)
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Josephine96

#14 Postby Josephine96 » Sun Oct 26, 2003 4:54 pm

LOL Yes I did.. I deserve a few brownie points even if I still have the occasional problem with bump etiquette lol
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