The 2004 hurricane season could or could not have an El Nino. The pattern I see is this:
1997- El Nino, Six named storms, three hurricanes, one major. Category 3-Erika. One US hurricane landfall.
1998- 14 named storms, 10 hurricanes, 3 major. Category 3-Bonnie/ Category 4- Georges/ Category 5-Mitch. 3 US hurricane landfalls: Bonnie/Earl/Georges
1999- 12 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 5 major. Category 4- Bret, Cindy, Floyd, Gert, Lenny. 3 US hurricane landfalls: Bret (MAJOR)/Floyd/Irene
2000- 14 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 3 major. Category 3-Alberto/ Category 4-isaac/Keith. No US hurricane landfalls.
2001- 15 named storms, 9 hurricanes, 4 major. Category 3- Erin/Felix, Category 4- Iris/Michelle. No US hurricane landfalls.
2002- 12 named storms, 4 hurricanes, 2 major. Category 3- Isidore, Category 4- Lili. One US hurricane landfall: Lili.
2003 (SO FAR)- 14 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 major. Category 3- Kate, Category 4- Fabian, Category 5- Isabel. 2 US hurricane landfalls: Claudette/Isabel.
To put it in normal terms, 2003 has been alot like 1998, so will 2004 be like 1999? Nobody knows, and this timeline means nothing, but it is interesting......
I see a pattern....
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
- Stormsfury
- Category 5
- Posts: 10549
- Age: 53
- Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 6:27 pm
- Location: Summerville, SC
- Andrew92
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 3247
- Age: 41
- Joined: Mon Jun 16, 2003 12:35 am
- Location: Phoenix, Arizona
I'm sorry, but I don't think this season is totally like 1998. I think if it were, more storms would have been hurricanes than just (using the term loosely) six. In some ways it is, but I don't remember a Juan-like path back then.
Of course, that's just my personal opinion, and I remember the 1998 season. I know I'm taking it with a grain of salt, but I just don't see as many similarities as you do....then again, I was 14 in 1998.
As for next year, I know it's early to guess, but my guess for next year as of now is for another active season. I'll have to check more sources for an El Nino is forecast, but I wouldn't base a guess on 2004 to be similar to 1999 based on just a pattern you're seeing, because climatology can be broken, and we saw that happen a lot this year with Ana, TD #2, Danny, and Nicholas.
-Andrew92
Of course, that's just my personal opinion, and I remember the 1998 season. I know I'm taking it with a grain of salt, but I just don't see as many similarities as you do....then again, I was 14 in 1998.
As for next year, I know it's early to guess, but my guess for next year as of now is for another active season. I'll have to check more sources for an El Nino is forecast, but I wouldn't base a guess on 2004 to be similar to 1999 based on just a pattern you're seeing, because climatology can be broken, and we saw that happen a lot this year with Ana, TD #2, Danny, and Nicholas.
-Andrew92
0 likes
That is why...
Kind of harsh. Actually, I did note that it was just a interesting fact, not something to go on. 

0 likes
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 4806
- Age: 41
- Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:54 pm
- Location: South Florida
Andrew92...
It's okay, Andrew92. I did go out on a grain of salt. Who knows what 2004 will hold. Will Charley, Earl, Ivan, or Karl hit the US? We will never know until the time comes. 

0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: facemane, FLCrackerGirl, Google Adsense [Bot], islandgirl45, johngaltfla, Kazmit, MetroMike, riapal, Sambucol2024, Stratton23, TomballEd, weeniepatrol, wzrgirl1, Zonacane and 142 guests