I see a pattern....

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Anonymous

I see a pattern....

#1 Postby Anonymous » Sat Oct 25, 2003 7:34 pm

The 2004 hurricane season could or could not have an El Nino. The pattern I see is this:

1997- El Nino, Six named storms, three hurricanes, one major. Category 3-Erika. One US hurricane landfall.

1998- 14 named storms, 10 hurricanes, 3 major. Category 3-Bonnie/ Category 4- Georges/ Category 5-Mitch. 3 US hurricane landfalls: Bonnie/Earl/Georges

1999- 12 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 5 major. Category 4- Bret, Cindy, Floyd, Gert, Lenny. 3 US hurricane landfalls: Bret (MAJOR)/Floyd/Irene

2000- 14 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 3 major. Category 3-Alberto/ Category 4-isaac/Keith. No US hurricane landfalls.

2001- 15 named storms, 9 hurricanes, 4 major. Category 3- Erin/Felix, Category 4- Iris/Michelle. No US hurricane landfalls.

2002- 12 named storms, 4 hurricanes, 2 major. Category 3- Isidore, Category 4- Lili. One US hurricane landfall: Lili.

2003 (SO FAR)- 14 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 major. Category 3- Kate, Category 4- Fabian, Category 5- Isabel. 2 US hurricane landfalls: Claudette/Isabel.

To put it in normal terms, 2003 has been alot like 1998, so will 2004 be like 1999? Nobody knows, and this timeline means nothing, but it is interesting......
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#2 Postby Stormsfury » Sat Oct 25, 2003 7:47 pm

Actually, 1997 ended with 8 storms, 3 hurricanes, and 1 major.
The rest are as followed...

1998.. 14.. 10.. 3
1999.. 12.. 8.... 5
2000.. 15.. 8.... 3
2001.. 15.. 9.... 4
2002.. 12.. 4.... 2
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Anonymous

OOPS...

#3 Postby Anonymous » Sat Oct 25, 2003 7:59 pm

OOPS... I forgot Grace.
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#4 Postby Andrew92 » Sat Oct 25, 2003 9:42 pm

I'm sorry, but I don't think this season is totally like 1998. I think if it were, more storms would have been hurricanes than just (using the term loosely) six. In some ways it is, but I don't remember a Juan-like path back then.

Of course, that's just my personal opinion, and I remember the 1998 season. I know I'm taking it with a grain of salt, but I just don't see as many similarities as you do....then again, I was 14 in 1998.

As for next year, I know it's early to guess, but my guess for next year as of now is for another active season. I'll have to check more sources for an El Nino is forecast, but I wouldn't base a guess on 2004 to be similar to 1999 based on just a pattern you're seeing, because climatology can be broken, and we saw that happen a lot this year with Ana, TD #2, Danny, and Nicholas.

-Andrew92
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Anonymous

That is why...

#5 Postby Anonymous » Sat Oct 25, 2003 10:36 pm

Kind of harsh. Actually, I did note that it was just a interesting fact, not something to go on. :wink:
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#6 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sat Oct 25, 2003 11:06 pm

No. 1997 had 7 named storms. Grace which was the G named storm in the 7th letter of the alphabet.
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#7 Postby Andrew92 » Sat Oct 25, 2003 11:11 pm

OK, sorry Floydbuster if I was a little too harsh, as I wasn't trying to be. I know I took your opinion with a grain of salt, but I was just confused whether you were basing your forecast on what is likely to happen or what has happened over the last several years.

-Andrew92
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Anonymous

Andrew92...

#8 Postby Anonymous » Sun Oct 26, 2003 2:59 pm

It's okay, Andrew92. I did go out on a grain of salt. Who knows what 2004 will hold. Will Charley, Earl, Ivan, or Karl hit the US? We will never know until the time comes. 8-)
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