Texas Fall 2019

[Tammie]

Joe Bastardi just Tweeted:
Great pattern setting up for snow before Thanksgiving N Texas to the mid atlantic, IMO

[Texas Snowman]

I’ll just leave this right here without comment...

@BigJoeBastardi: Great pattern setting up for snow before Thanksgiving N Texas to the mid atlantic, IMO

[Brent]

Oh really

[harp]

Since it's a little slow in here right now, I thought I would post this from Larry Cosgrove from a few minutes ago:

It is funny how a weather model can trigger a great memory.
When the forecast charts came in during early morning and around noon, it was evident that yet another stormy and cold sequence is coming to the U.S. For a moment in time I felt like the 22 year old version of Larry Cosgrove. Slightly sadistic, twisted smile. Outbursts of laughter. Friends messaging me saying, "DID YOU SEE THAT?"
Of course I did, a Rex block signal straddling the Arctic Circle from Alaska to the Davis Strait. A strong polar jet stream digging into California and ejecting two possibly strong winter storms through the lower 48 states. A chance for an Arctic intrusion around and after Thanksgiving.
I feel better than James Brown. And I remember the times when this type of weather pattern was common. namely 1976 - 1979. It was a magical time, and it taught me that loving bad weather is actually a good thing. Hence the Top 10 countdown from November 15, 1976, which got me going into media weather forecasting.
Kind of like a demented Casey Kasem, right? Ha Ha Ha Ha!

[Texas Snow]

If Bastardi is right I will start following him on Twitter again but that’s pretty far out to call specific areas that usually fail. But I’ll believe because I want to.

[Ralph's Weather]

26 this morning. Cold is easy this year.

[weatherdude1108]

Low was 38 at my place, but there was still frost on the roofs. Definitely a colder start and more prolonged this season compared to last year.

[gpsnowman]

Very quiet in here. Does late November still look promising? Wouldn't be unheard of. 1993 Thanksgiving was sleet city. Early December 2013 was sleet/cobblestone ice city. Hopefully we can get snow city this time.

[Brent]

Very quiet in here. Does late November still look promising? Wouldn't be unheard of. 1993 Thanksgiving was sleet city. Early December 2013 was sleet/cobblestone ice city. Hopefully we can get snow city this time.

So far on the GFS no

Just hints of a rain event around Thanksgiving but its way too warm for frozen

Both the gefs and eps are too warm around then too highs in the 50s

[gpsnowman]

Very quiet in here. Does late November still look promising? Wouldn't be unheard of. 1993 Thanksgiving was sleet city. Early December 2013 was sleet/cobblestone ice city. Hopefully we can get snow city this time.

So far on the GFS no

Just hints of a rain event around Thanksgiving but its way too warm for frozen

Both the gefs and eps are too warm around then too highs in the 50s

50's is just fine. Just no heat on turkey day. I will be in east Texas on Caddo lake that day. Need some cold for the camp fires that week.

[hamburgerman7070]

I find it interesting that the op runs and ensembles arent colder with mjo propagation into phases 8-2 fairly soon. I guess they haven't latched on yet, but I'm not sure.

[Brent]

I find it interesting that the op runs and ensembles arent colder with mjo propagation into phases 8-2 fairly soon. I guess they haven't latched on yet, but I'm not sure.

yeah I dont know.. but if it's not as cold as the last event(like some posts in here) 50s for highs might make sense. That's still below normal

Granted it is still 10+ days away

[hamburgerman7070]

https://www.daculaweather.com/4_mjo_phase_forecast.php

This is a site i go to for the mjo stuff. Not sure which model has the best handle on the mjo currently.

[bubba hotep]

Looks like a gloomy and sometimes stormy end to the week for N. Texas but no signs of really cold air until we move into December. The Pacific jet is currently extended and shifted poleward pumping a steady stream of warm Pacific air into our source region. The GEFS is showing a bit of a relaxation and an equatorward shift in the longer range. This allows for cold anomalies to build over WCAN. After that, it looks like we could see our next significant cold dump during the 1st week of December.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

https://www.daculaweather.com/4_mjo_phase_forecast.php

This is a site i go to for the mjo stuff. Not sure which model has the best handle on the mjo currently.

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/ro ... 00reg.html

This site is excellent too.

[bubba hotep]

Looks like a gloomy and sometimes stormy end to the week for N. Texas but no signs of really cold air until we move into December. The Pacific jet is currently extended and shifted poleward pumping a steady stream of warm Pacific air into our source region. The GEFS is showing a bit of a relaxation and an equatorward shift in the longer range. This allows for cold anomalies to build over WCAN. After that, it looks like we could see our next significant cold dump during the 1st week of December.

EPS coming around.

[Cpv17]

Looks like a gloomy and sometimes stormy end to the week for N. Texas but no signs of really cold air until we move into December. The Pacific jet is currently extended and shifted poleward pumping a steady stream of warm Pacific air into our source region. The GEFS is showing a bit of a relaxation and an equatorward shift in the longer range. This allows for cold anomalies to build over WCAN. After that, it looks like we could see our next significant cold dump during the 1st week of December.

EPS coming around.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2019111712/ecmwf-ens_T850a_namer_11.png

0z Euro looks even better.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Good to see this pattern coming back again. My post in the winter thread was hoping for something like this. High just west of California, pulling a trough through the inter-mountain region towards us. Good to see!

[harp]

Let's all remember that we got a bit spoiled this year with that shot of arctic air earlier this month. We are not even into winter yet. Our prime time has not yet arrived. I'm in south Louisiana. Most of our recent frozen precip events here have occurred in December.

[rwfromkansas]

Having to watch a possible storm up north in KS just before Thanksgiving. I am going this year since my mom passed away so we are doing it there instead of my wife's family, so I hope it doesn't keep us from going....but I would love some snow while there. The Euro is currently showing 7-8 inches of snow Wednesday. Man, I hope it happens. It would add some good holiday cheer we will need this year. We are going up Tuesday morning. GFS is also showing the same storm in roughly the same timing but much weaker. Just maybe an inch of snow there.