Thoughts on the rest of the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season

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CyclonicFury
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Re: Thoughts on the rest of the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season

#41 Postby CyclonicFury » Tue Aug 20, 2019 11:39 am

I think the Atlantic seems more hostile than it actually has been because nothing has managed to develop. You would think that with how dead it has been 2019 would have well above normal shear in the MDR and near-record SAL levels. But that has not actually been the case. I still think the primary cause of the lack of activity has been the waves exiting Africa too far north. Once the WAM retreats south activity should pick up.
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NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.

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Re: Thoughts on the rest of the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season

#42 Postby DioBrando » Tue Aug 20, 2019 11:44 am

CyclonicFury wrote:I think the Atlantic seems more hostile than it actually has been because nothing has managed to develop. You would think that with how dead it has been 2019 would have well above normal shear in the MDR and near-record SAL levels. But that has not actually been the case. I still think the primary cause of the lack of activity has been the waves exiting Africa too far north. Once the WAM retreats south activity should pick up.

When do you reckon they'd retreat south then
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Re: Thoughts on the rest of the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season

#43 Postby CyclonicFury » Tue Aug 20, 2019 11:50 am

DioBrando wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote:I think the Atlantic seems more hostile than it actually has been because nothing has managed to develop. You would think that with how dead it has been 2019 would have well above normal shear in the MDR and near-record SAL levels. But that has not actually been the case. I still think the primary cause of the lack of activity has been the waves exiting Africa too far north. Once the WAM retreats south activity should pick up.

When do you reckon they'd retreat south then

Probably September.
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Re: Thoughts on the rest of the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season

#44 Postby DioBrando » Thu Nov 14, 2019 12:49 pm

Since the 2019 season is winding down, I might as well bring this up. NOTE: All totals are subject to change until December 31st, 2019.

Season total: 17-6-3
ACE: 142.1475 (for more information and a breakdown, please see my post, dated November 14th, 2019, in the ACE thread)

My thoughts on each storm
Andrea: D'awww. She tried.
Barry: Should this be downgraded to a tropical storm? Kinda shaped like a bull on camera.
Chantal: Wrap up warm, you need a blanket.
Dorian: Goodbye. Hope to never see you again. :grr:
Erin: Forgettable.
Fernand: Forgetabble. Just another rando GOM spinup.
Gabrielle: At least she (and Melissa) tried compared to the other girl storms this year.
Humberto: A pretty major. If Dorian and Lorenzo are the hulking warriors, Humberto would be a model. Pretty to watch, not the strongest (but still strong). Was a little clumsy on the East Coast.
Imelda: Rando GOM spinup, was impressed on how she managed to go from a 10% invest to a proper named storm. Still caused many flash floods.
Jerry: Fun little category 2 to track. Brought some variety to the season.
Karen: Failed to see the manager of the islands. Probably known for internet jokes/memes rather than actually doing anything. Live, laugh, low pressure.
Lorenzo: I'm impressed by myself. Like, I managed to be a wonderful eastern Cat 5. I loved myself, easily my favorite storm of the season. Am very disappointed in the slight damage and death toll though.
Melissa: Came from a nor-easter. Weird. At least, like Gabby, she tried.
Nestor: Looked lopsided.
Olga: Looked like a snowstorm on camera.
Pablo: Was weirded out by this Vince wannabe.
Rebekah: At least she had cat 1 winds before transitioning to a proper tropical storm.

Overall, I was surprised 2019 would end up slightly more active than I thought. However, if you take out the three majors, you would have a very weak season. This year reminded me of 2011 to an extent.
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