ATL: NESTOR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Too bad the AF recon headed back to base, I guess because of flight problems.

yeah, but at least now we know that the wind switch north of the cneter was not another vort.. lol it was 20k feet

[DestinHurricane]

Why does the NHC track bend north after the 1AM forecast point? Is that supposed to be the center reformation?

[northjaxpro]

Yeah it is ashame that they (Recon) had to leave the mission right now, but I think they got enough data to definitely upgrade this to Nestor shortly. Let's hope they get another Recon plane out there this afternoon.

[DestinHurricane]

Yeah it is ashame that they (Recon) had to leave the mission right now, but I think they sampled enough to get enough data to definitely upgrade this to Nestor shortly. Let's hope they get another Recon plane out there this afternoon.

What does the AF plane do differently than the NOAA2? School me on recon.

[Aric Dunn]

Why does the NHC track bend north after the 1AM forecast point? Is that supposed to be the center reformation?

That is because the updated position from 8am was off track.. well to the south of where it was supposed to be. NHC only updates the cone at 11am and 5pm. so it will adjust east at 11am. no way around it.

[NDG]

Buoy 42001 now reporting east wind gusting to 49 mph with a 1002 mb pressure.

[Aric Dunn]

Buoy 42001 now reporting east wind gusting to 49 mph with a 1002 mb pressure.

yeah center is still south of it and heading ene..

that SE quad opposite the bouy would likely be showing 60 to 70 mph gusts

[ScottNAtlanta]

Buoy 42001 now reporting east wind gusting to 49 mph with a 1002 mb pressure.

The wind shift didnt coincide with the lowest pressure though. Pressure is still dropping.

[tropicwatch]

Too bad the AF recon headed back to base, I guess because of flight problems.

yeah, but at least now we know that the wind switch north of the cneter was not another vort.. lol it was 20k feet

Aric this was the first westward wind shift as they were heading back under 5000 feet. Not trying to argue but it is somewhat confusing.
Time: 13:34:00Z
Coordinates: 25.950N 89.867W
Acft. Static Air Press: 848.5 mb
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,458 m (4,783 ft)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 291° at 6 kts (From the WNW at 6.9 mph)
Air Temp: 19.5°C* (67.1°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 8 kts (9.2 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 12 kts (13.8 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 0 mm/hr

[TallyTracker]

This is still not that well organized even with the stronger winds on the east side. It is not rapidly deepening. It does seem to be steadily strengthening and may get a little stronger than originally forecast. Could approach hurricane intensity by tomorrow morning. I think this finally meets the criteria for a tropical storm. It is definitely fully tropical right now though I would not doubt it’s getting a little baroclinic assistance.

[Aric Dunn]

Too bad the AF recon headed back to base, I guess because of flight problems.

yeah, but at least now we know that the wind switch north of the cneter was not another vort.. lol it was 20k feet

Aric this was the first westward wind shift as they were heading back under 5000 feet. Not trying to argue but it is somewhat confusing.
Time: 13:34:00Z
Coordinates: 25.950N 89.867W
Acft. Static Air Press: 848.5 mb
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,458 m (4,783 ft)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 291° at 6 kts (From the WNW at 6.9 mph)
Air Temp: 19.5°C* (67.1°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 8 kts (9.2 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 12 kts (13.8 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 0 mm/hr

yeah, I guess I should have included that whatever small vort is up there it just rotating around. the extent of the west winds as recon was leaving, at first, when i saw them ... was like ok thats odd.

but yeah we clearly have some small eddys rotating around the larger one south of the bouy.

[wxman57]

Perhaps I'm missing something, but I didn't see recon report anything but south to southwest winds. No LLC indicated. I know the buoys to the north all have east winds, but there's a cold front across the northern Gulf and winds are out of the east there. Pressure just dropped 2mb at the buoy north of the estimated center. Wind only 20 kts.

[Aric Dunn]

Perhaps I'm missing something, but I didn't see recon report anything but south to southwest winds. No LLC indicated. I know the buoys to the north all have east winds, but there's a cold front across the northern Gulf and winds are out of the east there. Pressure just dropped 2mb at the buoy north of the estimated center. Wind only 20 kts.

http://wxman57.com/images/16a.JPG

there you go...

[NDG]

Too bad the AF recon headed back to base, I guess because of flight problems.

yeah, but at least now we know that the wind switch north of the cneter was not another vort.. lol it was 20k feet

Aric this was the first westward wind shift as they were heading back under 5000 feet. Not trying to argue but it is somewhat confusing.
Time: 13:34:00Z
Coordinates: 25.950N 89.867W
Acft. Static Air Press: 848.5 mb
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,458 m (4,783 ft)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 291° at 6 kts (From the WNW at 6.9 mph)
Air Temp: 19.5°C* (67.1°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 8 kts (9.2 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 12 kts (13.8 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 0 mm/hr

Whenever recons gain or loose altitude the wind reports will be wrong. The strong east winds reported by buoy 42001 which is very close to those coordinates disagree with those west winds reported by the recon as it started gaining altitude.

[Aric Dunn]

recon over there measuring the low to mid level shear.

about 20 kt of westerly wind shear.

but with a forward motion of about 15 mph. that is about 15 to 20 mph of shear. if the system increases speed and the shear stays the same.. that will only help it.

[HurricaneBelle]

[Tweet] https://twitter.com/StormTrackerJoe/status/1185199741308690433


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[northjaxpro]

This is a precurser of potentially of what is to come over portions of the Florida peninsula during tomorrow

[NDG]

Very cool picture from buoy 42001 as the convection has now moved to the east of it with the dark towering cumulus at a distance and clearing blue skies to the west.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/images/buoyca ... 8_1410.jpg

[SunnyThoughts]

So strange to be sitting here at 61 degrees, and watching what is taking place in the gulf. Postel on the weather channel calling this a gulfeaster...comparing it to a noreaster of course. Still no name on newest advisory...but a 60 mph potential tropical cyclone.

[NDG]

10:00 AM CDT Fri Oct 18
Location: 25.9°N 90.0°W
Moving: NE at 22 mph
Min pressure: 1001 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph