ATL: NESTOR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[caneman]

Here in hernando county two counties north and west of Tampa area, the air was cool and dry. No moisture on my windshield at all. However, with that said, my knee for no reason, and my left shoulder(broken in car accident two years ago is out of the blue hurting this morning. Ruskin(Tampa) NWS does not mention squally weather here, just storm surge on our coastal areas ( I am inland so not concerned). They did not mention any rain caused flooding just flooding from storm surge. Seems most of the stuff will remain to our north. I guess that could change as things become clearer though. Albeit they also mentioned tornadoes; marginal risk. Just feeling badly for the panhandle. They don't need anything right now. They said other than storm surge, little if any impact will be felt in our area.

Robbie, I don't buy that. You have lived here long enough to know these type systems have wide affects. Further, take a look a satellite, no way we are escaping with just minimal affects

[caneman]

Here in hernando county two counties north and west of Tampa area, the air was cool and dry. No moisture on my windshield at all. However, with that said, my knee for no reason, and my left shoulder(broken in car accident two years ago is out of the blue hurting this morning. Ruskin(Tampa) NWS does not mention squally weather here, just storm surge on our coastal areas ( I am inland so not concerned). They did not mention any rain caused flooding just flooding from storm surge. Seems most of the stuff will remain to our north. I guess that could change as things become clearer though. Albeit they also mentioned tornadoes; marginal risk. Just feeling badly for the panhandle. They don't need anything right now. They said other than storm surge, little if any impact will be felt in our area.

Doubt that. My forecast shows 80% chance of rain today and 90% tomorrow

[robbielyn]

I have also lived here long enough to know Pinellas gets more action than hernando county. Just put in my zip and that is what Ruskin said for our county.

[SFLcane]

The entire cloud mas wx associated with this thing is moving ene towards the FL peninsula.

[tropicwatch]

Unfortunately the NHC doesn't show any eastward shift in its forecast cone yet. Looks like it is dialed in to the panhandle. Wouldn't mind seeing an eastward shift in the next update. Also unfortunately one of our local tv stations gave a somewhat howdy doody forecast yesterday. It is notorious for this, don't want to disrupt the beach dollars. "No change in strength r impacts from earlier. 2-4" rain, 30-40 mph winds w/gusts over TS, 1-3' storm surge, small severe threat mainly east of PC." NHC was already stating the system had 40mph winds when they posted this.

[rbaker55]

based on satellite position looks like PTC 16 is moving more ene then ne which means further east landfall. Careful of this one this is going over loop current waters and could ramp up quicky. On the other hand as it gets closer to the coast the air temps over n central FL are in the low to mid 60's and dew points the same, further north even lower. I would tend to think the system wants to stay south in the warmer more tropical air. I see land fall no further west then Perry FL

[NDG]

You can clearly see that the convection is tracking further south than forecasted by the 0z Euro even by the latest HWRF. They are too far north and west than the actual location of the CoC which is following the deep convection. Lets see what the recon finds the main CoC.

[caneman]

I have also lived here long enough to know Pinellas gets more action than hernando county. Just put in my zip and that is what Ruskin said for our county.

Well, I wouldnt buy it is all I'm saying. Just look at satellite. As I recall, you all often suffer from flooding and storm surge right?

[northjaxpro]

Unfortunately the NHC doesn't show any eastward shift in its forecast cone yet. Looks like it is dialed in to the panhandle. Wouldn't mind seeing an eastward shift in the next update. Also unfortunately one of our local tv stations gave a somewhat howdy doody forecast yesterday. It is notorious for this, don't want to disrupt the beach dollars. "No change in strength r impacts from earlier. 2-4" rain, 30-40 mph winds w/gusts over TS, 1-3' storm surge, small severe threat mainly east of PC." NHC was already stating the system had 40mph winds when they posted this.

8
My thoughts and prayers are fully with you and everyone out there in the Panama City area. I just spoke to a few of my extended family members who live in Lynn Haven, and they assured me they are prepping. So I do hope to see a last minute shift east of the cyclone for all of you out there, although that would potentially put more of us in NE Florida to get more of the signigicant impacts if that happened.

[GCANE]

Very high rain-rate signature with obvious latent heating on both sides.

[caneman]

You can clearly see that the convection is tracking further south than forecasted by the 0z Euro even by the latest HWRF. They are too far north and west than the actual location of the CoC which is following the deep convection. Lets see what the recon finds the main CoC.


https://i.imgur.com/rSn4l67.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/fo98iqt.png
https://i.imgur.com/oSi5iTX.png

These models do it every single time with these June and October systems. This time of year they almost always end up right of modeling. You would think through the years this bias would have been fixed by now

[cjrciadt]

Unassigned NOAA flight leaving from Lakeland.

[robbielyn]

I have also lived here long enough to know Pinellas gets more action than hernando county. Just put in my zip and that is what Ruskin said for our county.

Well, I wouldnt buy it is all I'm saying. Just look at satellite. As I recall, you all often suffer from flooding and storm surge right?

Yes and I mentioned the storm surge and ponding low lying areas. I didn't say we wouldn't experience anything, and I didn't say we would not get any rain at all. I quoted Ruskins stating that the only impact we would get is storm surge(not minimizing but I am inland by 12 miles east of US 19) obviously for the beach and coastal areas this isn't good. But they said little or no impact other than the surge. Will it rain, yes, will we have flash flooding due to several inches of rain not as of the 4 am Ruskin forecast for Hernando county. I hope it does go east we can handle it better than PC and Mexico right now. I do worry about what this could mean for them.

[robbielyn]

based on satellite position looks like PTC 16 is moving more ene then ne which means further east landfall. Careful of this one this is going over loop current waters and could ramp up quicky. On the other hand as it gets closer to the coast the air temps over n central FL are in the low to mid 60's and dew points the same, further north even lower. I would tend to think the system wants to stay south in the warmer more tropical air. I see land fall no further west then Perry FL

The air was cool here in hernando county and dew point was lower also. No dew on my windshield as yesterday was.

[GCANE]

Recon picking up borderline TS winds

[gatorcane]

Indeed looks like it is headed towards the peninsula. Even if the center of the low tracks into the panhandle, it will be points east including the peninsula that will see the most squally weather.

Loop:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... t=vis-swir

[GCANE]

Unassigned NOAA flight leaving from Lakeland.

Full-on panic mode

[GCANE]

Southern COC was off-scale on 85GHz

[tropicwatch]

Unassigned NOAA flight leaving from Lakeland.

They are calling it mission 03 into PTC 16.

[GCANE]

More than 1/2 hour later and core looks better.
CDO building out to the west now.
Looks like this will be a full-on warm core.
Anybody on the Gulf side of FL should think about getting their preps underway.