ATL: NESTOR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tropicwatch]

Contrary to what the satellite appears to be showing. The showers south of the Panhandle are moving north and northeastward. Too bad the 4am recon didn't go.

[caneman]

Contrary to what the satellite appears to be showing. The showers south of the Panhandle are moving north and northeastward. Too bad the 4am recon didn't go.

Showers moving N.E. into big bend as well. This seems to have Big bend written all over it. However, its such large spread out storm that I can see significant affects 100 miles north and south.

[GCANE]

Whoa!!!
Massive off-the-scale rain rate.

[northjaxpro]

If the convection continues to stay on a lower latitude today I would think the CoC will follow it and models will shift to the right, I will not be surprised if it ends up making landfall near Apalachicola if not a little further east.

Exactly NDG. It could(the track) shift a little east of forecast. It would not surprise me in the least if it happened as well.

Also, I am getting even more concermed about the storm surge into Apalachee Bay this weekend. We could be looking at some significant surge flooding into areas like Horseshoe Beach, Steinhatchee and of course Cedar Key. Initially, they were forecasting 3-5 feet of surge, but now with the potential of a strongrr cyclone mobing into the region, that surge threat could increase evrn more. Definitely a major worry!!

[GCANE]

Recon just about to take off

[northjaxpro]

Recon just about to take off

Perfect timing. GOOD! Just as the cyclone looks to be gradually getting its act together. This is going to be a very interesting Recon mission. I definitely expect the upgrade to happen this morning.

[NDG]

Contrary to what the satellite appears to be showing. The showers south of the Panhandle are moving north and northeastward. Too bad the 4am recon didn't go.

It was never scheduled to go that early, it is getting ready to take off as I type this.

[NDG]

We in central FL need to keep an eye on the squall line the latest HWRF shows coming through central FL later tonight through early tomorrow morning, I will not be surprised if it will have quite a bit of tornadic cells especially as it approaches the western FL coast.

[tropicwatch]

Contrary to what the satellite appears to be showing. The showers south of the Panhandle are moving north and northeastward. Too bad the 4am recon didn't go.

It was never scheduled to go that early, it is getting ready to take off as I type this.

ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 7
A. 18/1130Z,1730Z
B. AFXXX 0216A CYCLON
C. 18/0915Z
D. 24.5N 93.5W
E. 18/1100Z TO 18/1730Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1185151915002339329

[GCANE]

That was a quick consolidation.
Obviously feeling the effects of the weakening UL Trough.
IR showing outflowing fingers on the west of the CoC.
3 meso-vorts from firing hot towers.
Last one showing a well-defined warm core signature.

[GCANE]

Contrary to what the satellite appears to be showing. The showers south of the Panhandle are moving north and northeastward. Too bad the 4am recon didn't go.

It was never scheduled to go that early, it is getting ready to take off as I type this.

ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 7
A. 18/1130Z,1730Z
B. AFXXX 0216A CYCLON
C. 18/0915Z
D. 24.5N 93.5W
E. 18/1100Z TO 18/1730Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

I think its panic mode.
Saw them do this before a few years ago.
They panic when they see hot pink.

[GCANE]

Recon in the air.

[GCANE]

CAPE building rapidly in the GOM, especially bad this early in the morning.
Up to 5000!

[robbielyn]

Here in hernando county two counties north and west of Tampa area, the air was cool and dry. No moisture on my windshield at all. However, with that said, my knee for no reason, and my left shoulder(broken in car accident two years ago is out of the blue hurting this morning. Ruskin(Tampa) NWS does not mention squally weather here, just storm surge on our coastal areas ( I am inland so not concerned). They did not mention any rain caused flooding just flooding from storm surge. Seems most of the stuff will remain to our north. I guess that could change as things become clearer though. Albeit they also mentioned tornadoes; marginal risk. Just feeling badly for the panhandle. They don't need anything right now. They said other than storm surge, little if any impact will be felt in our area.

[caneman]

These are the types of storms we fear on the peninsula and I'm sure the panhandle as well. A quick blow up system traversing from the boc with little warning

[robbielyn]

Here in hernando county two counties north and west of Tampa area, the air was cool and dry. No moisture on my windshield at all. However, with that said, my knee for no reason, and my left shoulder(broken in car accident two years ago is out of the blue hurting this morning. Ruskin(Tampa) NWS does not mention squally weather here, just storm surge on our coastal areas ( I am inland so not concerned). They did not mention any rain caused flooding just flooding from storm surge. Seems most of the stuff will remain to our north. I guess that could change as things become clearer though. Albeit they also mentioned tornadoes; marginal risk. Just feeling badly for the panhandle. They don't need anything right now. They said other than storm surge, little if any impact will be felt in our area.

[GCANE]

This guy is taking over.
Classic preliminary RI signature.
Next half-hour is going to tell us alot.
Good move to get Recon in there.

[robbielyn]

CAPE building rapidly in the GOM, especially bad this early in the morning.
Up to 5000!

Whoah!

[northjaxpro]

My senses are deep down telling me that Recon is going to find a strengthening tropical storm when they get in there in a couple of hours.

As tweeted by Derek Ortt, the satellite presentation signature of PTC 16 is already better than Barry earlier in this season. I agree with him. Plus, seeing pink color tops show just how juiced the atmosphere is with the cyclone right now. It is really feeding off those warm sea surface temps of the South Central GOM currently!!