ATL: NESTOR - Models

[GCANE]

Whoa, big slow down on 12Z GFS with 16 interacting with the PV Streamer.
Any delay on 16 moving is going to setup for a much stronger TC.
This may come in heavy at landfall.
If I was around the Big Bend area I would err on the side of caution.

[northjaxpro]

12Z GFS run shows future Nestor's COC making landfall at Apalachicola on 12Z Saturday morning at 998 mb, a bit of a shift east from the 06Z run.

[northjaxpro]

Whoa, big slow down on 12Z GFS with 16 interacting with the PV Streamer.
Any delay on 16 moving is going to setup for a much stronger TC.
This may come in heavy at landfall.
If I was around the Big Bend area I would err on the side of caution.

https://i.imgur.com/UIVV1og.png

Hmm.. This is concerning. We discussed this GCANE very earlier this morning about the PV Streamrr interaction. It will be extremely interesting seeing how the later model runs respond to this.

[chaser1]

12Z GFS run shows future Nestor's COC making landfall at Apalachicola on 12Z Saturday morning at 998 mb, a bit of a shift east from the 06Z run.

I get the sense that N. Gulf Low might impact the storm to slide just a tad further east as it rotates under and around the broader 500 mb circulation. This is assuming that the storm (Nestor?) itself has not already fully phased in with and lost identity with the broader mid level system already. If remaining a separate identity longer, then I'd imagine we could see a bit further east motion followed by a fairly sharp North turn just prior to landfall a bit east of Apalachicola and closer to the Alligator Point/St. Marks area, but that's only if this were to remain a largely tropical entity. The biggest question to me is how long will this tropical system be able to remain independent and separate prior to it's being absorbed? If nothing else, this certainly seems like it'll wind up growing into one large weather system. Phasing in with the evolving N. Gulf low suggests a stronger event for the N. Gulf Coast. Remaining separate and not fully phasing in right up until landfall would suggest to me a more sheared and shallow tropical system but with conditions spreading further east.

[Aric Dunn]

12z euro launches this nne in 24hours.

Seems a bit suspect. Will have to wait and see how the obviously well defined and expanding circ around 20n evolves.

Looks to be moving ene currently..

[tolakram]

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like ukmet shifted little more east.

[Dean4Storms]

https://i.imgur.com/v24zAPY.png

I am hearing by local Meteorologists that the ECM in this run @ 60mph.

[Emmett_Brown]

18Z GFS seems to initialize too far N compared to the 5pm NHC position, and what recon is finding

[NDG]

18z HWRF coming in stronger again.

[DestinHurricane]

HWRF and HMON both have a hurricane.

[DestinHurricane]

Off topic but is the "max wind" in the upper right corner of tropical tidbits hurricane models correct? The winds it shows seems rather high for that mslp on most model.

[rigbyrigz]

Why wouldn't that Max wind, right before landfall (here in) Big Bend, not be accurate?

[Steve]

NAM is rolling in. It shows tightening of the center farther north. Looks about like my post last night said and maybe it makes a run for 60 or so before landfall

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 01800&fh=0

[Aric Dunn]

00z GFS from 6 to 12 hrs jumps the center 200 miles to the NE.. lol

I think its time to go to sleep lol.

[kevin]

New 06z GFS run has a landfall at 24/30 hours and is the strongest operational run yet with a minimum pressure of 990 mbar.

[N2FSU]

6z GFS
990mb vs 997 on 0z

[N2FSU]

Closer look at 6z GFS vs 0z:



Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[NDG]

06z HWRF shifted a little east, also a little stronger offshore before becoming more subtropical as it makes landfall. It shows one heck of a squall line from the Tampa Bay area on north towards the Nature coast to come onshore with possible tornadic cells. I will not be surprise if that squall line produces TS force winds across the Tampa Bay area with the downdrafts from it.

[tropicwatch]

Appears to be pretty good agreement with the models.
https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hurricane-model-plots