ATL: NESTOR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

They're flying low, 950mb, 1400 ft

[GCANE]

Starting to spin pretty nice, doesn't look like a front anymore.

[Steve820]

Should become Nestor anytime later today. Doesn't look that good for the northeastern Gulf Coast although it should bring drought relief. According to Philip Klotzbach it's the first storm to form in the western Gulf of Mexico this late in the year since Juan in 1985.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1184844322937679875

[Aric Dunn]

Please tell me they are going to go to boc..

They are flying through the old trough broundary looking for the secondary low that the models shown developing

Lets hope they fly to where the actual ts is

[TallyTracker]

Currently this appears to be a fully tropical cyclone with a tight inner core and convection colocated with the center. The bulk of the circulation is below 26N. North of that, the convection looks more frontal and a result of the upper level divergence. I expect by tomorrow it will look more subtropical. I wouldn’t be totally shocked if it goes extratropical as it reaches the coastline overnight tomorrow night. The next 24 hours will be very interesting!

[lrak]

Please tell me they are going to go to boc..

They are flying through the old trough broundary looking for the secondary low that the models shown developing

Lets hope they fly to where the actual ts is

Looks like they are turning

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055 looks like it's going right over the BOC buoy.

[Aric Dunn]

Please tell me they are going to go to boc..

They are flying through the old trough broundary looking for the secondary low that the models shown developing

Lets hope they fly to where the actual ts is

Looks like they are turning

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055 looks like it's going right over the BOC buoy.

Close probably 50 miles south or so. but pressure is droppping fast

[Aric Dunn]

and there are the TS winds.. on the weak side..

[Aric Dunn]

there is also likely another vort to the east ese of where recon passed.

[NDG]

Tropical Storm, IMO.

[Hurricaneman]

Tropical Storm, IMO.

There looks to be multiple vortices so I’m not really sure it’s not a tight trough instead of a tropical storm right now

[stormhunter7]

Flying north at low level on west side of CoC.... BUMPY ride! lol

[gatorcane]

The BoC low Looks to be moving ENE wouldn’t surprise me if we see a few more east shifts or center reformations as shear is from the WSW.

[wxman57]

That stronger wind to the west side is cool air butting up against the coast of Mexico that is accelerating southward. Not really circulating in to a center. Still looks quite poorly organized, but should become a weak STS or TS tomorrow. Plane found a weak swirl at the crosshairs in the image below.

[psyclone]

best convection and likely eventual QPF maximum will be right of the center...TS wind probs for Tampa dropped from 8% at advisory 1 to 4% at advisory 2...but that is an example of an area that is still in the hunt for decent squalls/rain totals.

[Aric Dunn]

That stronger wind to the west side is cool air butting up against the coast of Mexico that is accelerating southward. Not really circulating in to a center. Still looks quite poorly organized, but should become a weak STS or TS tomorrow. Plane found a weak swirl at the crosshairs in the image below.

http://wxman57.com/images/96Lb.JPG

that is incorrect.. the recon data showed the winds lessening the farther away from the center consistent with a TC> . winds along the coast are even lighter.

anyway.. back to vort watching..

[stormhunter7]

Does the Temp/Dewpt HDOB reading on last past through center look like a warm core is developing?

[Aric Dunn]

Does the Temp/Dewpt HDOB reading on last past through center look like a warm core is developing?

There is definitely an increase in temp. Though a little flat. Little more convection over center and it will be

[NDG]

Perhaps still an elongated circulation but plenty of westerly winds south of the COC, near 1004-1005mb

[Aric Dunn]

Perhaps still an elongated circulation but plenty of westerly winds south of the COC, near 1004-1005mb

https://i.imgur.com/cVfhErL.png

evidence of multiple small vorts. still organized enough to be upgraded.