ATL: NESTOR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hurricaneman]

If this follows the front, may end up around anywhere from Cedar Key to Tampa so anyone in that area between Pensacola to Ft Myers needs to pay very close attention to this

[chaser1]

My guess is that T.S. conditions will extend a bit further east and south then forecasted. With exception to one or two discreet squalls I don't think that too much of a wind event would extend south of Cedar Key though

[MarioProtVI]

A complicated weather situation is evolving in the Gulf of Mexico.
The circulation associated with the tropical disturbance over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico is getting better defined, and the
associated convection is getting better organized. However, a
strong mid- to upper-level trough is moving eastward across
southern Texas and northern Mexico, and a frontal system is present
over the northern and northwestern Gulf of Mexico. The ECMWF and
GFS models suggest that the trough will spawn a low along the
front, with the tropical disturbance merging with that low. On the
other hand, the UKMET suggests the tropical disturbance will become
the primary low pressure system. Either way, it is likely that a
low pressure area with gale-force winds and at least some tropical
cyclone characteristics will move northeastward and affect
portions of the northern Gulf coast during the next 36-48 h. Based
on this, advisories are initiated on Potential Tropical cyclone
Sixteen, and coastal tropical cyclone and storm surge
watches/warnings are being issued.

Never seen this kind of discussion before. However it does bring back memories of Philippe in 2017 - which had a similar interaction. What I am concerned about is how the NHC will handle the system if the GFS and EURO solution of this interaction verify especially if it becomes a TS before the supposed merger, since they have done poorly with these kinds of interaction. I’m thinking if this were to happen Nestor (when it does become Nestor) would be treated as heading all the way up to the Big Bend as currently forecasted whereas in actuality is a completely different non-tropical system resulting in a big cut in the TCR or even declassification. Same thing happened with Philippe due to a cold front that was approaching it and caused a lot of uncertainty. We’ll see what happens with 16L, but I’m hoping it doesn’t become a TC until after this interaction.

[Aric Dunn]

Where the circ is now the shear is low. Convection is expanding. I would wager money recon finds a TS. May transition later if that frontal low forms... But if not then things get interesting. It will stay farther south.

[northjaxpro]

Yep, I think you're right.... though I'll be surprised if this system will truly have sustained winds exceeding 40 knots. To your point though, much of that wind will likely be broadly fanning out east and north of center. I'd guess that Crystal River Fla. northward to west of Panama City should get plenty of T.S. force gusts. Gonna be a wet blustery 24 hours for the Tallahassee to Ceder Key corridor. Depending on tides, there could be some significant piling of water in the Horseshoe Beach area/Steinhatchee area all the way up to Apalachee Bay.

Always have to watch for surge impacts in that area from Cedar Key and up and along the coast concerning Apalachee Bay.

Has anyone already posted the expected (normal) tide times and heights for up there?

They are calling for the potential of at least 5 feet surge across the region for the time being Chaser. A Storm Surge Watch was posted at 11:00 a.m. this morning from Indian Pass to Clearwater.

[caneman]

My guess is that T.S. conditions will extend a bit further east and south then forecasted. With exception to one or two discreet squalls I don't think that too much of a wind event would extend south of Cedar Key though

Actually untrue. I've lived along Clearwater Beach for 40 plus years. Anything coming this direction will have pretty good affects on us especially if closer to Cedar Key. On the coast in Pinellas we often lose power from storms passing by on this coast. These type storms are often spread out.

[ronjon]

My guess is that T.S. conditions will extend a bit further east and south then forecasted. With exception to one or two discreet squalls I don't think that too much of a wind event would extend south of Cedar Key though

Actually untrue. I've lived along Clearwater Beach for 40 plus years. Anything coming this direction will have pretty good affects on us especially if closer to Cedar Key. On the coast in Pinellas we often lose power from storms passing by on this coast. These type storms are often spread out.

Yes I agree caneman - probably going to have to sandbag the bottom floor for this one in Hernando Beach. Because this storm will be subtropical expect a big expansive wind field well away from the center which will push alot of water into the west coast of Florida. Hoping its not as bad as Hermine was when I had 5 inches of seawater on my first floor at high tide.

[chaser1]

b.t.w....... depending on actual storm track and wind trajectory on-shore winds should pile up water just north and east of center. Given the shape of coastline, here's a few spots that should keep an eye on potential coastal storm surge and flooding.

St. Marks - high tide at St. Marks up in the Fla panhandle is around 6:40 p.m. Friday evening and close to 5:30 a.m. Sat. morning

Horseshoe Beach - high tides are close to Friday 6:00 p.m. , and Saturday around 5:00 a.m., and 7:00 p.m.

Apalachicola - high tides look to be around Friday close to 9:30 pm. and Saturday morning around 6:30 a.m. & 11:00 p.m.

[TallyTracker]

It is critical. Lots of people are downplaying this storm, but 45 mph+ wind gusts in the area hit by Hurricane Michael last year will be very bad and dangerous. Many people will need to seek shelter since they live in tents, trailers, and tarped houses yet. Tallahassee Democrat was downplaying it this morning cause it won’t be like Michael. But it doesn’t need to be like Michael to cause a major impact.

TDO is stupid to downplay. They forget that Hermine didn't get over 70mph here and Tally had all kinds of problems. Between the 40 day drought and the little bit of rain we just had, 45mph here or more will take out plenty of branches and trees.

From tolakram’s post, I see they did mention it could be similar to Hermine in Tallahassee. It wasn’t as bad as I thought.

I am concerned about tree damage too.

[Weatherboy1]

My guess is that T.S. conditions will extend a bit further east and south then forecasted. With exception to one or two discreet squalls I don't think that too much of a wind event would extend south of Cedar Key though

As I said a few hours ago, my belief is ultimately this makes landfall further south and east than currently forecast given the setup, climatology, etc. The only way it hits as far north as projected, in my view, is if the tropical low merges with/gets sucked into a frontal low further north. Models are split on this, per the NHC discussion

[Emmett_Brown]

If you look at the vis loop this morning, it is apparent that this thing is going to be quite large. Convection is really filling up the GOM.

[Jonny]

Watches and warnings have been officially issued for the FL panhandle.

[chaser1]

My guess is that T.S. conditions will extend a bit further east and south then forecasted. With exception to one or two discreet squalls I don't think that too much of a wind event would extend south of Cedar Key though

Actually untrue. I've lived along Clearwater Beach for 40 plus years. Anything coming this direction will have pretty good affects on us especially if closer to Cedar Key. On the coast in Pinellas we often lose power from storms passing by on this coast. These type storms are often spread out.

I'm not sure what you think is untrue. NHC projected landfall is near Panama City. If that verifies, I do believe that wind field impact could extend further to the east then presently forecast. However, I highly doubt that Clearwater would experience considerable periods of squalls with wind gusts exceeding 40 mph with a landfall that occurs west of Apalachicola. Now, if landfall were to occur significantly further east and near Cedar Key.... then yes, that would be a different story altogether.

[Gums]

Salute!

Well, the doggone front we were counting on to help is fizzling and the storm will likely keep homing in on us, with Panama City getting the worst; We are 30.5 and 86.5 so will not get real strong wind. Only got 25 mph or so last year from Michael.

Should be able to give good observations from near ground zero early Sat.

All should review Opal (Oct 95). Declared a hurricane morning of 2 Oct and hit us 48 hours later as a decent Cat 3. Covered those 700 miles from Capeche to here in 48 hours. The front that helped us had not entered the Gulf, but that cool air aloft behind it helped to weaken the storm from a strong 4 to a weak 3 in only 6 hours or so. Nevertheless, trees were already falling here by noon.

We are hoping the prediction holds and we will not get the winds, although some rain woud be nice, as it hasn't rained for over a monmth until yesterday.

Going thru our standard drill now --- fill car gas tanks, clear patio of loose stuff, ensure extra batteries for things, cranki up icemaker, buy beer and poptarts!!

Gums sends...

[northjaxpro]

Impressive Hot Tower firing near the COC . I am nearly certain now that Recon will find TS conditions when they arrive a bit later today. It really looks good on visible satellite. Just awaiting Recon now...

[tolakram]

Live visible

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=3&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=conus&p%5B0%5D=band_02&x=3326.8284912109375&y=6426.84228515625

floater
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=1&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=mesoscale_02&p%5B0%5D=band_02&x=604.9268798828125&y=1248.9555053710938

GOES image viewer
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/floater.php?stormid=AL162019

[chaser1]

My guess is that T.S. conditions will extend a bit further east and south then forecasted. With exception to one or two discreet squalls I don't think that too much of a wind event would extend south of Cedar Key though

As I said a few hours ago, my belief is ultimately this makes landfall further south and east than currently forecast given the setup, climatology, etc. The only way it hits as far north as projected, in my view, is if the tropical low merges with/gets sucked into a frontal low further north. Models are split on this, per the NHC discussion

Oh yeah? As I said a day ago, models are deepening this storm based on interaction with the mid level low to develop and move east out of E. Texas. The other scenario is that this system develops apart from this other feature and potentially track more ENE if less directly steered by this mid level feature

[cycloneye]

FYI= Recon will fly this afternoon with departure at 2 PM EDT. Follow the observations at the recon thread

[toad strangler]

That NHC Cone is very thin all the way to the panhandle.

[NDG]

This is why I told people not to count out the potential of a US landfalling storm until at least the end of October, especially when the MJO is on our side of the world.