2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[jconsor]

We can hope that, but I would be careful about too much optimism for the US. Next week's system will most likely move into central America or form in the far Eastern Pacific, but the pattern remains favorable for additional TC development in the western Caribbean the rest of Oct.

The CFS has been good at sniffing out development potential a few weeks in advance. The past few runs have been showing a TC forming in the SW Caribbean Oct 20-22, and then heading NW and N toward the eastern or central Gulf coast.

Also, from a climo perspective, since the recent active era began in 1995, when there has been no El Nino and at least one US hurricane landfall prior to Oct, about 50 % of such years saw a US hurricane landfall in Oct.

Other then some high latitude stuff the season could be over for the Conus. That is the hope atleast

[LarryWx]

12Z ICON 180:

[SFLcane]

Not sure why is the GFS developing so far east now? I'd think Convective feedback could be the culprit regardless doesn't really change the results.

[SFLcane]

12Z ICON 180:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/icon/2019100812/icon_z500_mslp_watl_61.png

Yeah I'm still waiting for Dorian to go SW into Miami.

[LarryWx]

The 6Z GEFS is still another of the much quieter runs thanks largely to it moving most members into Central America. There’s only one of 21 members worth noting for the US with it coming in near the LA/TX border on 10/21. Here’s the map as of 0Z on 10/18, the benchmark time I’ve been following:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2019100806/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_watl_40.png

10/8 12Z GEFS is another of the much quieter runs. I was starting to get a little worried after the Sun night model consensus suggesting increased risk for the US, but starting with yesterday's 12Z EPS and 18Z GEFS consensus has fortunately become less threatening. By no means am I saying the US is yet in the clear as it is still too early, but it is hard to imagine not liking the trends. Here's the 12Z GEFS map for 0Z on 10/18:

[northjaxpro]

Ridging down across the Greater Antilles and Caribbean region looks to remain strong through the medium term period, pushing any developing cyclones westward into Central America in all likelihood.

[LarryWx]

The 12Z Euro is still another run showing very little with regard to the W Caribbean potential. The Euro suite continues to set itself up to be either a big winner or big loser. The GFS suite is on the other side (excluding recent runs).

[GCANE]

[GCANE]

GFS Run-to-Run
Slowing it down and more north

[LarryWx]

The 12Z Euro is still another run showing very little with regard to the W Caribbean potential. The Euro suite continues to set itself up to be either a big winner or big loser. The GFS suite is on the other side (excluding recent runs).

To go along with the 12Z Euro, the 12Z EPS is another quiet run. Out of 51 members, I found all of 2 (4%) with a sub 999 TC: 1 hits SW FL 10/20 and the other hits Galveston on 10/22.

Fwiw (likely not much), it later has a new W Car TC form but still only from 4 members (8%) get down to sub 999. Geneses are 10/20-1. All 4 are still in the W Caribbean at the end of the run (10/23).

[GCANE]

Euro is actually showing 6 ensemble members with genesis in 114hr

[LarryWx]

Euro is actually showing 6 ensemble members with genesis in 114hr

Yeah, but those 6 are all still very weak at 1006-1008 mb in a ba1ckground state near 1010. I was only talking about sub 999 TCs. After another look, I need to revise my 2 to 3 sub 999. But that's still only 6% of members.

[GeneratorPower]

Euro is actually showing 6 ensemble members with genesis in 114hr

Yeah, but those 6 are all still very weak at 1006-1008 mb in a ba1ckground state near 1010. I was only talking about sub 999 TCs. After another look, I need to revise my 2 to 3 sub 999. But that's still only 6% of members.

I think there is no question that the models taken together have a weak signal for this area. But it's there, and at least the GFS has been consistent for a number of days on the timeframe. Worth watching for sure, and quite interesting to me.

[SFLcane]

The 12Z Euro is still another run showing very little with regard to the W Caribbean potential. The Euro suite continues to set itself up to be either a big winner or big loser. The GFS suite is on the other side (excluding recent runs).

To go along with the 12Z Euro, the 12Z EPS is another quiet run. Out of 51 members, I found all of 2 (4%) with a sub 999 TC: 1 hits SW FL 10/20 and the other hits Galveston on 10/22.

Fwiw (likely not much), it later has a new W Car TC form but still only from 4 members (8%) get down to sub 999. Geneses are 10/20-1. All 4 are still in the W Caribbean at the end of the run (10/23).

Hi Larry, was just looking at this yea there are some members indicating the possibility for development. Long-range euro is not as biased as long range GFS so worth keeping an eye on as steering might be totally different.

[Bhuggs]

The SW Caribbean maybe whoknows storm to me is still very interesting, mainly in a model watching perspective. The fact that gfs has developed this for about 10 days straight, if it doesn’t develop, my trust in the new gfs this time of year in the Caribbean goes to zero. This would be a new level of phantom storm, almost like an upgraded phantom lol. If it is right and we do get a storm down there, euro takes a hit.

Ultimately, the two major models show a heck of a ridge protecting the US from anything that forms down there. Still not gonna stop watching for it, and it definitely is interesting

[WxEp]

The CFS has been good at sniffing out development potential a few weeks in advance. The past few runs have been showing a TC forming in the SW Caribbean Oct 20-22, and then heading NW and N toward the eastern or central Gulf coast.

The 12Z EPS has started signaling this possibility as well around the same location and time frame. Also has movement to the NW and N. Still as of now only 4-5 members (~10%), but could be a sign of things to come.

Additional context: The 00Z EPS had only 1 member, and as far as I can tell no EPS runs prior to that had any hint of development (to be fair, that is near the end of the current run timeline).

[StruThiO]

Happy hour GFS is doing happy hour GFS things.

[AutoPenalti]

Happy hour GFS is doing happy hour GFS things.

https://i.imgur.com/ez2IDYs.png

https://i.imgur.com/IBvu61X.png

https://i.imgur.com/1kT9geS.png

That’s quite a close time frame for it to be “happy hour-ish”

[sma10]

GFS being consistent with its idea, tho development near Jamaica due west into Belize is the more unusual track for mid October

[Hurricaneman]

The 12Z Euro is still another run showing very little with regard to the W Caribbean potential. The Euro suite continues to set itself up to be either a big winner or big loser. The GFS suite is on the other side (excluding recent runs).

To go along with the 12Z Euro, the 12Z EPS is another quiet run. Out of 51 members, I found all of 2 (4%) with a sub 999 TC: 1 hits SW FL 10/20 and the other hits Galveston on 10/22.

Fwiw (likely not much), it later has a new W Car TC form but still only from 4 members (8%) get down to sub 999. Geneses are 10/20-1. All 4 are still in the W Caribbean at the end of the run (10/23).

Hi Larry, was just looking at this yea there are some members indicating the possibility for development. Long-range euro is not as biased as long range GFS so worth keeping an eye on as steering might be totally different.

The 18zGFS shows this also, could be something that needs to be monitored but since it’s in fantasy range it may just be fantasy, but this type of mjo pattern would favor something to the 18zGFS

Also remember if something does form at or after the 20th a few systems that did form in that timeframe and location was

1998 Mitch
1921 Tampa Bay hurricane
2008 Omar
2005 Beta

And notice they all took different paths