WPAC: HAGIBIS - Post-Tropical

[CryHavoc]

If I were to guess the actual intensities at each point:

6 / 1200z - 65 kt, 985 mb
6 / 1800z - 75 kt, 976 mb
7 / 0000z - 120 kt, 936 mb
7 / 0600z - 160 kt, 897 mb (drop of 79 mb / increase of 85 kt in 12 hours)
7 / 1200z - 170 kt, 884 mb (drop of 101 mb / increase of 105 kt in 24 hours)
7 / 1800z - 150 kt, 899 mb

I think this is pretty spot on from my own estimates. Maybe 165 kt at 1200z. But in that ballpark for sure.

To be clear, I think Haiyan was well in excess of 170 kt at his peak.

[Highteeld]

If I were to guess the actual intensities at each point:

6 / 1200z - 65 kt, 985 mb
6 / 1800z - 75 kt, 976 mb
7 / 0000z - 120 kt, 936 mb
7 / 0600z - 160 kt, 897 mb (drop of 79 mb / increase of 85 kt in 12 hours)
7 / 1200z - 170 kt, 884 mb (drop of 101 mb / increase of 105 kt in 24 hours)
7 / 1800z - 150 kt, 899 mb

That's about what I get, too. My peak was around 1030z ~ 170 knots.

[Highteeld]

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1181295808844460032

[wxman57]

I was just going to mention that a recent microwave pass indicated that an eyewall replacement cycle was beginning. Hagibis may weaken a category or two during the ERC (relaxing/expanding pressure gradient) before restrengthening.

[NotoSans]

 https://twitter.com/philipslau681/status/1181314537909174272

[Tailspin]

https://imgur.com/IKtRGxk
looping 8 hr

[Highteeld]

ERC well underway. Love how this imagery highlights the moat.

[galaxy401]

What an extremely impressive storm! It formed in the perfect environment and the perfect location allowing it to reach a very high intensity for a long duration.

As mentioned, it's a huge bummer there is no recon to sample it when Hagibis was at its peak. It being only 140 knots is way too low. The problem is though is that even if recon missions were conducted in the basin, we probably still wouldn't have seen this storm sampled. A big reason is the far distance from any landmass. I believe the recon missions are conducted by Japan and it's still too far way from the typhoon. The only way there could be recon at that area is if the US has an airbase in the Mariana islands and that would still involve transporting the planes from Hawaii and the mainland.

I know the JTWC adjusts their best track shortly after the storm dissipates and next year so expect some upward adjustments.

[1900hurricane]

I suspect eyewall replacement will take about as long as Soudelor '15's, so most of today during the daylight hours. It might be bombing out again overnight.

[Highteeld]

I suspect eyewall replacement will take about as long as Soudelor '15's, so most of today during the daylight hours. It might be bombing out again overnight.

Would be a dramatic transformation as it could be simultaneously be getting a boost from the DMAX as well.

[Highteeld]

ERC well underway. Love how this imagery highlights the moat.

https://i.imgur.com/oF4C5f9.png

Moat slowing becoming more defined

[euro6208]

Legitimately a sickening feeling from a scientific perspective knowing no actual measurements are happening and the intensity is without any doubt underestimated to a ridiculous level. I don't think it's a stretch to say that this could be one of the top 10 or 15 most intense tropical cyclones on record in actuality.

Sickening feeling.

[euro6208]

Morning Hagibis

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 080001 RRA
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
SUPER TYPHOON HAGIBIS (20W) SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP202019
1001 AM CHST TUE OCT 8 2019

...SUPER TYPHOON HAGIBIS MOVING AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
AS OF 10 AM, THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GUAM IS CANCELED.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
EFFECTIVE 10 AM, THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GUAM IS
CANCELED. DAMAGING TROPICAL STORM FORCE CONDITIONS ARE NO
LONGER EXPECTED.

A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN, TINIAN, ALAMAGAN
AND PAGAN ISLANDS IN THE CNMI. TYPHOON CONDITIONS, INCLUDING
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 55 TO 75 MPH, WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING, AND ALAMAGAN AND PAGAN UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA AND
AGRIHAN ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS, INCLUDING DAMAGING
WINDS OF 39 TO 50 MPH, ARE EXPECTED FOR ROTA THROUGH THE MORNING
AND AGRIHAN UNTIL THIS EVENING.

SUMMARY OF 945 AM CHST...2345 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 143.7E

ABOUT 190 MILES SOUTHWEST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT 165 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PAGAN
ABOUT 160 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT 180 MILES NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 175 MILES NORTHWEST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 210 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ROTA
ABOUT 240 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 945 AM CHST...2345 UTC...THE CENTER OF SUPER TYPHOON
HAGIBIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 143.7 DEGREES EAST. HAGIBIS IS MOVING WEST-

[Hayabusa]

I'm waiting if Hagibis would finally have a normal size eye

[euro6208]

Wow what a difference.

 https://twitter.com/MikeBWeather/status/1181360867352465410




 https://twitter.com/stormwx1/status/1181339167042744322

[Highteeld]

30 hours from now could get very interesting again...

[euro6208]

EURO gets this down to 931 in less than 48 hours. The earlier strengthening was missed.

[euro6208]

GFS goes down to 905mb.