WPAC: HAGIBIS - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: HAGIBIS - Typhoon

#421 Postby doomhaMwx » Mon Oct 07, 2019 6:59 am

Himawari-8 RGB satellite animation of Hagibis today Oct 07.
(May be slow to load due to large file size)

(Credits: Digital-Typhoon)
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edit: fixed image link
Last edited by doomhaMwx on Mon Oct 07, 2019 9:15 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: HAGIBIS - Typhoon

#422 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 07, 2019 7:04 am

Highteeld wrote:AVN:

Image


Image
Wilma at peak. Not a full ring compared to Hagibis. :eek:



I posted this several hours ago and still it is intensifying. Beats WIlma in every league.
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Re: WPAC: HAGIBIS - Typhoon

#423 Postby USTropics » Mon Oct 07, 2019 7:15 am

Guam radar was able to pick up on the pin-hole eye on the very northern edge this morning:

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Re: WPAC: HAGIBIS - Typhoon

#424 Postby Nancy Smar » Mon Oct 07, 2019 7:31 am

20W HAGIBIS 191007 1200 16.1N 146.7E WPAC 140 920
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Re: WPAC: HAGIBIS - Typhoon

#425 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 07, 2019 7:33 am

What i found amusing is people and the meteorology community treats this as a normal event when in actuality, it is historical. They need evidence.

Here comes the Atlantic.
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Re: WPAC: HAGIBIS - Typhoon

#426 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 07, 2019 7:35 am

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Re: WPAC: HAGIBIS - Typhoon

#427 Postby Highteeld » Mon Oct 07, 2019 7:35 am

Cloud tops warming, and the eye is cooling significantly. Probably a legit erc taking place right now.
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https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
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Re: WPAC: HAGIBIS - Typhoon

#428 Postby Highteeld » Mon Oct 07, 2019 7:43 am

Some of Patricia's best ADT #'s


2015OCT23 041500 7.2 917.8 146.0 7.2 7.3 8.3 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF -8.06 -82.38 EYE 10 IR 46.3 16.31 105.35 SPRL GOES13 39.6
2015OCT23 044500 7.3 914.8 149.0 7.3 7.3 8.2 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF -2.46 -81.95 EYE -99 IR 46.3 16.29 105.36 COMBO GOES13 39.6
2015OCT23 051500 7.3 914.8 149.0 7.3 7.4 7.9 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF -0.26 -79.40 EYE 11 IR 46.3 16.35 105.40 COMBO GOES13 39.6
2015OCT23 054500 7.3 914.0 149.0 7.3 7.4 8.0 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF 3.24 -79.80 EYE -99 IR 46.3 16.42 105.44 COMBO GOES13 39.7
2015OCT23 061500 7.3 914.0 149.0 7.3 7.5 8.0 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF -5.16 -80.24 EYE -99 IR 46.3 16.48 105.48 COMBO GOES13 39.8
2015OCT23 064500 7.4 910.9 152.0 7.4 7.6 8.1 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF -1.16 -80.61 EYE 11 IR 46.3 16.55 105.52 COMBO GOES13 39.8
2015OCT23 071500 7.4 910.9 152.0 7.4 7.7 8.1 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF -3.56 -80.86 EYE 11 IR 46.3 16.65 105.50 SPRL GOES13 39.9
2015OCT23 074500 7.5 907.7 155.0 7.5 7.8 8.2 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF 2.54 -80.68 EYE 11 IR 46.3 16.74 105.52 SPRL GOES13 39.9
2015OCT23 081500 7.6 904.5 158.0 7.6 8.0 8.2 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF 0.64 -80.97 EYE 11 IR 46.3 16.82 105.53 SPRL GOES13 40.0
2015OCT23 084500 7.7 901.3 161.0 7.7 8.0 8.2 3.2T/18hr OFF OFF 1.34 -81.41 EYE -99 IR 46.3 16.81 105.65 SPRL GOES13 40.1
2015OCT23 091500 7.8 898.0 164.0 7.8 8.0 8.3 3.2T/18hr OFF OFF 3.24 -81.49 EYE 11 IR 46.3 16.89 105.66 SPRL GOES13 40.2
2015OCT23 094500 7.8 898.0 164.0 7.8 8.0 8.3 3.2T/18hr OFF OFF 2.64 -81.29 EYE -99 IR 46.3 16.98 105.57 SPRL GOES13 40.1
2015OCT23 101500 7.9 894.7 167.0 7.9 8.0 8.3 3.2T/18hr OFF OFF 4.14 -81.66 EYE 11 IR 46.3 17.07 105.68 COMBO GOES13 40.3
2015OCT23 104500 7.9 894.7 167.0 7.9 8.0 8.3 3.2T/18hr OFF OFF 2.14 -81.47 EYE -99 IR 46.3 17.07 105.58 COMBO GOES13 40.2
2015OCT23 111500 8.0 891.3 170.0 8.0 8.1 8.2 3.2T/18hr OFF OFF 0.54 -81.00 EYE 11 IR 46.3 17.16 105.69 COMBO GOES13 40.3
2015OCT23 114500 8.0 891.3 170.0 8.0 8.2 8.2 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -0.66 -80.99 EYE -99 IR 46.3 17.15 105.70 SPRL GOES13 40.3
2015OCT23 121500 8.1 887.9 173.0 8.1 8.3 8.3 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 0.74 -81.33 EYE -99 IR 46.3 17.25 105.59 COMBO GOES13 40.3
2015OCT23 124500 8.1 887.9 173.0 8.1 8.3 8.3 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -0.26 -81.59 EYE 10 IR 46.3 17.28 105.66 COMBO GOES13 40.3



Hagibis:

2019OCT07 023000 4.2 978.8 69.8 4.2 5.5 7.4 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 4.29 -79.56 EYE 7 IR -22.4 15.35 -148.86 ARCHER HIM-8 20.3
2019OCT07 031000 4.6 970.1 79.6 4.6 5.5 7.2 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF -13.82 -79.86 EYE 8 IR -22.4 15.38 -148.77 ARCHER HIM-8 20.3
2019OCT07 034000 4.7 968.1 82.2 4.7 5.5 7.4 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF -0.45 -79.87 EYE 7 IR -22.4 15.41 -148.65 ARCHER HIM-8 20.3
2019OCT07 041000 5.0 962.2 90.0 5.0 5.5 7.4 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 4.88 -79.72 EYE 8 IR -22.4 15.45 -148.49 ARCHER HIM-8 20.2
2019OCT07 043000 5.1 960.3 92.4 5.1 5.5 7.4 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 4.45 -79.33 EYE 8 IR -22.4 15.47 -148.41 ARCHER HIM-8 20.2
2019OCT07 051000 5.3 956.4 97.2 5.3 5.5 7.3 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 15.58 -78.18 EYE 8 IR -22.4 15.52 -148.25 ARCHER HIM-8 20.2
2019OCT07 054000 5.5 952.4 102.0 5.5 5.5 7.3 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 17.37 -77.73 EYE 8 IR -22.4 15.55 -148.16 ARCHER HIM-8 20.1
2019OCT07 061000 5.5 952.4 102.0 5.5 5.5 7.2 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 13.28 -77.58 EYE 8 IR -22.4 15.61 -148.09 ARCHER HIM-8 20.2
2019OCT07 064000 5.5 952.4 102.0 5.5 5.5 7.1 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 9.83 -77.46 EYE 8 IR 0.0 15.69 -147.99 ARCHER HIM-8 20.2
2019OCT07 071000 5.5 955.0 102.0 5.5 5.6 7.3 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 14.12 -78.37 EYE 8 IR 0.0 15.78 -147.88 ARCHER HIM-8 20.3
2019OCT07 074000 5.5 955.0 102.0 5.5 5.6 7.3 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF -3.67 -79.62 EYE 8 IR 0.0 15.83 -147.71 ARCHER HIM-8 20.2
2019OCT07 080000 5.5 955.0 102.0 5.5 5.7 7.5 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 5.52 -79.68 EYE 8 IR 0.0 15.88 -147.58 ARCHER HIM-8 20.2
2019OCT07 084000 5.6 952.8 104.6 5.6 5.9 7.7 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 15.88 -80.48 EYE 8 IR 4.6 15.90 -147.34 ARCHER HIM-8 20.1
2019OCT07 091000 5.7 950.5 107.2 5.7 6.3 7.7 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 11.61 -80.63 EYE 8 IR 4.6 15.91 -147.20 ARCHER HIM-8 20.1
2019OCT07 094000 5.9 946.0 112.4 5.9 6.4 7.7 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 14.34 -81.28 EYE 8 IR 4.6 15.90 -147.08 ARCHER HIM-8 20.0
2019OCT07 101000 6.1 941.5 117.4 6.1 6.7 7.8 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 13.39 -81.58 EYE 8 IR 4.6 15.91 -146.99 ARCHER HIM-8 20.0
2019OCT07 104000 6.2 939.3 119.8 6.2 6.8 7.8 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 17.67 -81.10 EYE 8 IR 4.6 15.97 -146.88 ARCHER HIM-8 20.0
2019OCT07 111000 6.5 932.6 127.0 6.5 7.0 7.6 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 11.35 -80.29 EYE 8 IR 4.6 16.06 -146.78 ARCHER HIM-8 20.1
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https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
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Re: WPAC: HAGIBIS - Typhoon

#429 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Oct 07, 2019 7:45 am

Maintains at 915 mb
TY 1919 (Hagibis)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 7 October 2019

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 7 October>
Scale Large
Intensity Violent
Center position N16°05' (16.1°)
E146°35' (146.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 915 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 55 m/s (105 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75 m/s (150 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 190 km (100 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area E 650 km (350 NM)
W 440 km (240 NM)
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Re: WPAC: HAGIBIS - Typhoon

#430 Postby Highteeld » Mon Oct 07, 2019 7:48 am

Highteeld wrote:Some of Patricia's best ADT #'s


2015OCT23 041500 7.2 917.8 146.0 7.2 7.3 8.3 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF -8.06 -82.38 EYE 10 IR 46.3 16.31 105.35 SPRL GOES13 39.6
2015OCT23 044500 7.3 914.8 149.0 7.3 7.3 8.2 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF -2.46 -81.95 EYE -99 IR 46.3 16.29 105.36 COMBO GOES13 39.6
2015OCT23 051500 7.3 914.8 149.0 7.3 7.4 7.9 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF -0.26 -79.40 EYE 11 IR 46.3 16.35 105.40 COMBO GOES13 39.6
2015OCT23 054500 7.3 914.0 149.0 7.3 7.4 8.0 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF 3.24 -79.80 EYE -99 IR 46.3 16.42 105.44 COMBO GOES13 39.7
2015OCT23 061500 7.3 914.0 149.0 7.3 7.5 8.0 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF -5.16 -80.24 EYE -99 IR 46.3 16.48 105.48 COMBO GOES13 39.8
2015OCT23 064500 7.4 910.9 152.0 7.4 7.6 8.1 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF -1.16 -80.61 EYE 11 IR 46.3 16.55 105.52 COMBO GOES13 39.8
2015OCT23 071500 7.4 910.9 152.0 7.4 7.7 8.1 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF -3.56 -80.86 EYE 11 IR 46.3 16.65 105.50 SPRL GOES13 39.9
2015OCT23 074500 7.5 907.7 155.0 7.5 7.8 8.2 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF 2.54 -80.68 EYE 11 IR 46.3 16.74 105.52 SPRL GOES13 39.9
2015OCT23 081500 7.6 904.5 158.0 7.6 8.0 8.2 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF 0.64 -80.97 EYE 11 IR 46.3 16.82 105.53 SPRL GOES13 40.0
2015OCT23 084500 7.7 901.3 161.0 7.7 8.0 8.2 3.2T/18hr OFF OFF 1.34 -81.41 EYE -99 IR 46.3 16.81 105.65 SPRL GOES13 40.1
2015OCT23 091500 7.8 898.0 164.0 7.8 8.0 8.3 3.2T/18hr OFF OFF 3.24 -81.49 EYE 11 IR 46.3 16.89 105.66 SPRL GOES13 40.2
2015OCT23 094500 7.8 898.0 164.0 7.8 8.0 8.3 3.2T/18hr OFF OFF 2.64 -81.29 EYE -99 IR 46.3 16.98 105.57 SPRL GOES13 40.1
2015OCT23 101500 7.9 894.7 167.0 7.9 8.0 8.3 3.2T/18hr OFF OFF 4.14 -81.66 EYE 11 IR 46.3 17.07 105.68 COMBO GOES13 40.3
2015OCT23 104500 7.9 894.7 167.0 7.9 8.0 8.3 3.2T/18hr OFF OFF 2.14 -81.47 EYE -99 IR 46.3 17.07 105.58 COMBO GOES13 40.2
2015OCT23 111500 8.0 891.3 170.0 8.0 8.1 8.2 3.2T/18hr OFF OFF 0.54 -81.00 EYE 11 IR 46.3 17.16 105.69 COMBO GOES13 40.3
2015OCT23 114500 8.0 891.3 170.0 8.0 8.2 8.2 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -0.66 -80.99 EYE -99 IR 46.3 17.15 105.70 SPRL GOES13 40.3
2015OCT23 121500 8.1 887.9 173.0 8.1 8.3 8.3 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 0.74 -81.33 EYE -99 IR 46.3 17.25 105.59 COMBO GOES13 40.3
2015OCT23 124500 8.1 887.9 173.0 8.1 8.3 8.3 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -0.26 -81.59 EYE 10 IR 46.3 17.28 105.66 COMBO GOES13 40.3



Hagibis:

2019OCT07 023000 4.2 978.8 69.8 4.2 5.5 7.4 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 4.29 -79.56 EYE 7 IR -22.4 15.35 -148.86 ARCHER HIM-8 20.3
2019OCT07 031000 4.6 970.1 79.6 4.6 5.5 7.2 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF -13.82 -79.86 EYE 8 IR -22.4 15.38 -148.77 ARCHER HIM-8 20.3
2019OCT07 034000 4.7 968.1 82.2 4.7 5.5 7.4 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF -0.45 -79.87 EYE 7 IR -22.4 15.41 -148.65 ARCHER HIM-8 20.3
2019OCT07 041000 5.0 962.2 90.0 5.0 5.5 7.4 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 4.88 -79.72 EYE 8 IR -22.4 15.45 -148.49 ARCHER HIM-8 20.2
2019OCT07 043000 5.1 960.3 92.4 5.1 5.5 7.4 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 4.45 -79.33 EYE 8 IR -22.4 15.47 -148.41 ARCHER HIM-8 20.2
2019OCT07 051000 5.3 956.4 97.2 5.3 5.5 7.3 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 15.58 -78.18 EYE 8 IR -22.4 15.52 -148.25 ARCHER HIM-8 20.2
2019OCT07 054000 5.5 952.4 102.0 5.5 5.5 7.3 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 17.37 -77.73 EYE 8 IR -22.4 15.55 -148.16 ARCHER HIM-8 20.1
2019OCT07 061000 5.5 952.4 102.0 5.5 5.5 7.2 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 13.28 -77.58 EYE 8 IR -22.4 15.61 -148.09 ARCHER HIM-8 20.2
2019OCT07 064000 5.5 952.4 102.0 5.5 5.5 7.1 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 9.83 -77.46 EYE 8 IR 0.0 15.69 -147.99 ARCHER HIM-8 20.2
2019OCT07 071000 5.5 955.0 102.0 5.5 5.6 7.3 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 14.12 -78.37 EYE 8 IR 0.0 15.78 -147.88 ARCHER HIM-8 20.3
2019OCT07 074000 5.5 955.0 102.0 5.5 5.6 7.3 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF -3.67 -79.62 EYE 8 IR 0.0 15.83 -147.71 ARCHER HIM-8 20.2
2019OCT07 080000 5.5 955.0 102.0 5.5 5.7 7.5 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 5.52 -79.68 EYE 8 IR 0.0 15.88 -147.58 ARCHER HIM-8 20.2
2019OCT07 084000 5.6 952.8 104.6 5.6 5.9 7.7 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 15.88 -80.48 EYE 8 IR 4.6 15.90 -147.34 ARCHER HIM-8 20.1
2019OCT07 091000 5.7 950.5 107.2 5.7 6.3 7.7 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 11.61 -80.63 EYE 8 IR 4.6 15.91 -147.20 ARCHER HIM-8 20.1
2019OCT07 094000 5.9 946.0 112.4 5.9 6.4 7.7 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 14.34 -81.28 EYE 8 IR 4.6 15.90 -147.08 ARCHER HIM-8 20.0
2019OCT07 101000 6.1 941.5 117.4 6.1 6.7 7.8 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 13.39 -81.58 EYE 8 IR 4.6 15.91 -146.99 ARCHER HIM-8 20.0
2019OCT07 104000 6.2 939.3 119.8 6.2 6.8 7.8 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 17.67 -81.10 EYE 8 IR 4.6 15.97 -146.88 ARCHER HIM-8 20.0
2019OCT07 111000 6.5 932.6 127.0 6.5 7.0 7.6 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 11.35 -80.29 EYE 8 IR 4.6 16.06 -146.78 ARCHER HIM-8 20.1


I guess the point I'm making here is that Hagibis had a stronger temperature differential, smaller radius of max wind, and yet, 45 knots weaker storm than Patricia due to a lack of recon. Different satellites being used probably skews the data a little, but the point still stands.
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https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
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Re: WPAC: HAGIBIS - Typhoon

#431 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 07, 2019 7:51 am

Highteeld wrote:
Highteeld wrote:Some of Patricia's best ADT #'s


2015OCT23 041500 7.2 917.8 146.0 7.2 7.3 8.3 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF -8.06 -82.38 EYE 10 IR 46.3 16.31 105.35 SPRL GOES13 39.6
2015OCT23 044500 7.3 914.8 149.0 7.3 7.3 8.2 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF -2.46 -81.95 EYE -99 IR 46.3 16.29 105.36 COMBO GOES13 39.6
2015OCT23 051500 7.3 914.8 149.0 7.3 7.4 7.9 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF -0.26 -79.40 EYE 11 IR 46.3 16.35 105.40 COMBO GOES13 39.6
2015OCT23 054500 7.3 914.0 149.0 7.3 7.4 8.0 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF 3.24 -79.80 EYE -99 IR 46.3 16.42 105.44 COMBO GOES13 39.7
2015OCT23 061500 7.3 914.0 149.0 7.3 7.5 8.0 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF -5.16 -80.24 EYE -99 IR 46.3 16.48 105.48 COMBO GOES13 39.8
2015OCT23 064500 7.4 910.9 152.0 7.4 7.6 8.1 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF -1.16 -80.61 EYE 11 IR 46.3 16.55 105.52 COMBO GOES13 39.8
2015OCT23 071500 7.4 910.9 152.0 7.4 7.7 8.1 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF -3.56 -80.86 EYE 11 IR 46.3 16.65 105.50 SPRL GOES13 39.9
2015OCT23 074500 7.5 907.7 155.0 7.5 7.8 8.2 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF 2.54 -80.68 EYE 11 IR 46.3 16.74 105.52 SPRL GOES13 39.9
2015OCT23 081500 7.6 904.5 158.0 7.6 8.0 8.2 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF 0.64 -80.97 EYE 11 IR 46.3 16.82 105.53 SPRL GOES13 40.0
2015OCT23 084500 7.7 901.3 161.0 7.7 8.0 8.2 3.2T/18hr OFF OFF 1.34 -81.41 EYE -99 IR 46.3 16.81 105.65 SPRL GOES13 40.1
2015OCT23 091500 7.8 898.0 164.0 7.8 8.0 8.3 3.2T/18hr OFF OFF 3.24 -81.49 EYE 11 IR 46.3 16.89 105.66 SPRL GOES13 40.2
2015OCT23 094500 7.8 898.0 164.0 7.8 8.0 8.3 3.2T/18hr OFF OFF 2.64 -81.29 EYE -99 IR 46.3 16.98 105.57 SPRL GOES13 40.1
2015OCT23 101500 7.9 894.7 167.0 7.9 8.0 8.3 3.2T/18hr OFF OFF 4.14 -81.66 EYE 11 IR 46.3 17.07 105.68 COMBO GOES13 40.3
2015OCT23 104500 7.9 894.7 167.0 7.9 8.0 8.3 3.2T/18hr OFF OFF 2.14 -81.47 EYE -99 IR 46.3 17.07 105.58 COMBO GOES13 40.2
2015OCT23 111500 8.0 891.3 170.0 8.0 8.1 8.2 3.2T/18hr OFF OFF 0.54 -81.00 EYE 11 IR 46.3 17.16 105.69 COMBO GOES13 40.3
2015OCT23 114500 8.0 891.3 170.0 8.0 8.2 8.2 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -0.66 -80.99 EYE -99 IR 46.3 17.15 105.70 SPRL GOES13 40.3
2015OCT23 121500 8.1 887.9 173.0 8.1 8.3 8.3 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 0.74 -81.33 EYE -99 IR 46.3 17.25 105.59 COMBO GOES13 40.3
2015OCT23 124500 8.1 887.9 173.0 8.1 8.3 8.3 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -0.26 -81.59 EYE 10 IR 46.3 17.28 105.66 COMBO GOES13 40.3



Hagibis:

2019OCT07 023000 4.2 978.8 69.8 4.2 5.5 7.4 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 4.29 -79.56 EYE 7 IR -22.4 15.35 -148.86 ARCHER HIM-8 20.3
2019OCT07 031000 4.6 970.1 79.6 4.6 5.5 7.2 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF -13.82 -79.86 EYE 8 IR -22.4 15.38 -148.77 ARCHER HIM-8 20.3
2019OCT07 034000 4.7 968.1 82.2 4.7 5.5 7.4 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF -0.45 -79.87 EYE 7 IR -22.4 15.41 -148.65 ARCHER HIM-8 20.3
2019OCT07 041000 5.0 962.2 90.0 5.0 5.5 7.4 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 4.88 -79.72 EYE 8 IR -22.4 15.45 -148.49 ARCHER HIM-8 20.2
2019OCT07 043000 5.1 960.3 92.4 5.1 5.5 7.4 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 4.45 -79.33 EYE 8 IR -22.4 15.47 -148.41 ARCHER HIM-8 20.2
2019OCT07 051000 5.3 956.4 97.2 5.3 5.5 7.3 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 15.58 -78.18 EYE 8 IR -22.4 15.52 -148.25 ARCHER HIM-8 20.2
2019OCT07 054000 5.5 952.4 102.0 5.5 5.5 7.3 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 17.37 -77.73 EYE 8 IR -22.4 15.55 -148.16 ARCHER HIM-8 20.1
2019OCT07 061000 5.5 952.4 102.0 5.5 5.5 7.2 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 13.28 -77.58 EYE 8 IR -22.4 15.61 -148.09 ARCHER HIM-8 20.2
2019OCT07 064000 5.5 952.4 102.0 5.5 5.5 7.1 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 9.83 -77.46 EYE 8 IR 0.0 15.69 -147.99 ARCHER HIM-8 20.2
2019OCT07 071000 5.5 955.0 102.0 5.5 5.6 7.3 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 14.12 -78.37 EYE 8 IR 0.0 15.78 -147.88 ARCHER HIM-8 20.3
2019OCT07 074000 5.5 955.0 102.0 5.5 5.6 7.3 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF -3.67 -79.62 EYE 8 IR 0.0 15.83 -147.71 ARCHER HIM-8 20.2
2019OCT07 080000 5.5 955.0 102.0 5.5 5.7 7.5 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 5.52 -79.68 EYE 8 IR 0.0 15.88 -147.58 ARCHER HIM-8 20.2
2019OCT07 084000 5.6 952.8 104.6 5.6 5.9 7.7 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 15.88 -80.48 EYE 8 IR 4.6 15.90 -147.34 ARCHER HIM-8 20.1
2019OCT07 091000 5.7 950.5 107.2 5.7 6.3 7.7 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 11.61 -80.63 EYE 8 IR 4.6 15.91 -147.20 ARCHER HIM-8 20.1
2019OCT07 094000 5.9 946.0 112.4 5.9 6.4 7.7 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 14.34 -81.28 EYE 8 IR 4.6 15.90 -147.08 ARCHER HIM-8 20.0
2019OCT07 101000 6.1 941.5 117.4 6.1 6.7 7.8 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 13.39 -81.58 EYE 8 IR 4.6 15.91 -146.99 ARCHER HIM-8 20.0
2019OCT07 104000 6.2 939.3 119.8 6.2 6.8 7.8 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 17.67 -81.10 EYE 8 IR 4.6 15.97 -146.88 ARCHER HIM-8 20.0
2019OCT07 111000 6.5 932.6 127.0 6.5 7.0 7.6 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 11.35 -80.29 EYE 8 IR 4.6 16.06 -146.78 ARCHER HIM-8 20.1


I guess the point I'm making here is that Hagibis had a stronger temperature differential, smaller radius of max wind, and yet, 45 knots weaker storm than Patricia due to a lack of recon. Different satellites being used probably skews the data a little, but the point still stands.


Was recon data incorporated into this?
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Re: WPAC: HAGIBIS - Typhoon

#432 Postby Highteeld » Mon Oct 07, 2019 7:54 am

euro6208 wrote:
Highteeld wrote:
Highteeld wrote:Some of Patricia's best ADT #'s


2015OCT23 041500 7.2 917.8 146.0 7.2 7.3 8.3 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF -8.06 -82.38 EYE 10 IR 46.3 16.31 105.35 SPRL GOES13 39.6
2015OCT23 044500 7.3 914.8 149.0 7.3 7.3 8.2 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF -2.46 -81.95 EYE -99 IR 46.3 16.29 105.36 COMBO GOES13 39.6
2015OCT23 051500 7.3 914.8 149.0 7.3 7.4 7.9 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF -0.26 -79.40 EYE 11 IR 46.3 16.35 105.40 COMBO GOES13 39.6
2015OCT23 054500 7.3 914.0 149.0 7.3 7.4 8.0 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF 3.24 -79.80 EYE -99 IR 46.3 16.42 105.44 COMBO GOES13 39.7
2015OCT23 061500 7.3 914.0 149.0 7.3 7.5 8.0 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF -5.16 -80.24 EYE -99 IR 46.3 16.48 105.48 COMBO GOES13 39.8
2015OCT23 064500 7.4 910.9 152.0 7.4 7.6 8.1 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF -1.16 -80.61 EYE 11 IR 46.3 16.55 105.52 COMBO GOES13 39.8
2015OCT23 071500 7.4 910.9 152.0 7.4 7.7 8.1 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF -3.56 -80.86 EYE 11 IR 46.3 16.65 105.50 SPRL GOES13 39.9
2015OCT23 074500 7.5 907.7 155.0 7.5 7.8 8.2 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF 2.54 -80.68 EYE 11 IR 46.3 16.74 105.52 SPRL GOES13 39.9
2015OCT23 081500 7.6 904.5 158.0 7.6 8.0 8.2 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF 0.64 -80.97 EYE 11 IR 46.3 16.82 105.53 SPRL GOES13 40.0
2015OCT23 084500 7.7 901.3 161.0 7.7 8.0 8.2 3.2T/18hr OFF OFF 1.34 -81.41 EYE -99 IR 46.3 16.81 105.65 SPRL GOES13 40.1
2015OCT23 091500 7.8 898.0 164.0 7.8 8.0 8.3 3.2T/18hr OFF OFF 3.24 -81.49 EYE 11 IR 46.3 16.89 105.66 SPRL GOES13 40.2
2015OCT23 094500 7.8 898.0 164.0 7.8 8.0 8.3 3.2T/18hr OFF OFF 2.64 -81.29 EYE -99 IR 46.3 16.98 105.57 SPRL GOES13 40.1
2015OCT23 101500 7.9 894.7 167.0 7.9 8.0 8.3 3.2T/18hr OFF OFF 4.14 -81.66 EYE 11 IR 46.3 17.07 105.68 COMBO GOES13 40.3
2015OCT23 104500 7.9 894.7 167.0 7.9 8.0 8.3 3.2T/18hr OFF OFF 2.14 -81.47 EYE -99 IR 46.3 17.07 105.58 COMBO GOES13 40.2
2015OCT23 111500 8.0 891.3 170.0 8.0 8.1 8.2 3.2T/18hr OFF OFF 0.54 -81.00 EYE 11 IR 46.3 17.16 105.69 COMBO GOES13 40.3
2015OCT23 114500 8.0 891.3 170.0 8.0 8.2 8.2 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -0.66 -80.99 EYE -99 IR 46.3 17.15 105.70 SPRL GOES13 40.3
2015OCT23 121500 8.1 887.9 173.0 8.1 8.3 8.3 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 0.74 -81.33 EYE -99 IR 46.3 17.25 105.59 COMBO GOES13 40.3
2015OCT23 124500 8.1 887.9 173.0 8.1 8.3 8.3 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -0.26 -81.59 EYE 10 IR 46.3 17.28 105.66 COMBO GOES13 40.3



Hagibis:

2019OCT07 023000 4.2 978.8 69.8 4.2 5.5 7.4 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 4.29 -79.56 EYE 7 IR -22.4 15.35 -148.86 ARCHER HIM-8 20.3
2019OCT07 031000 4.6 970.1 79.6 4.6 5.5 7.2 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF -13.82 -79.86 EYE 8 IR -22.4 15.38 -148.77 ARCHER HIM-8 20.3
2019OCT07 034000 4.7 968.1 82.2 4.7 5.5 7.4 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF -0.45 -79.87 EYE 7 IR -22.4 15.41 -148.65 ARCHER HIM-8 20.3
2019OCT07 041000 5.0 962.2 90.0 5.0 5.5 7.4 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 4.88 -79.72 EYE 8 IR -22.4 15.45 -148.49 ARCHER HIM-8 20.2
2019OCT07 043000 5.1 960.3 92.4 5.1 5.5 7.4 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 4.45 -79.33 EYE 8 IR -22.4 15.47 -148.41 ARCHER HIM-8 20.2
2019OCT07 051000 5.3 956.4 97.2 5.3 5.5 7.3 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 15.58 -78.18 EYE 8 IR -22.4 15.52 -148.25 ARCHER HIM-8 20.2
2019OCT07 054000 5.5 952.4 102.0 5.5 5.5 7.3 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 17.37 -77.73 EYE 8 IR -22.4 15.55 -148.16 ARCHER HIM-8 20.1
2019OCT07 061000 5.5 952.4 102.0 5.5 5.5 7.2 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 13.28 -77.58 EYE 8 IR -22.4 15.61 -148.09 ARCHER HIM-8 20.2
2019OCT07 064000 5.5 952.4 102.0 5.5 5.5 7.1 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 9.83 -77.46 EYE 8 IR 0.0 15.69 -147.99 ARCHER HIM-8 20.2
2019OCT07 071000 5.5 955.0 102.0 5.5 5.6 7.3 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 14.12 -78.37 EYE 8 IR 0.0 15.78 -147.88 ARCHER HIM-8 20.3
2019OCT07 074000 5.5 955.0 102.0 5.5 5.6 7.3 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF -3.67 -79.62 EYE 8 IR 0.0 15.83 -147.71 ARCHER HIM-8 20.2
2019OCT07 080000 5.5 955.0 102.0 5.5 5.7 7.5 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 5.52 -79.68 EYE 8 IR 0.0 15.88 -147.58 ARCHER HIM-8 20.2
2019OCT07 084000 5.6 952.8 104.6 5.6 5.9 7.7 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 15.88 -80.48 EYE 8 IR 4.6 15.90 -147.34 ARCHER HIM-8 20.1
2019OCT07 091000 5.7 950.5 107.2 5.7 6.3 7.7 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 11.61 -80.63 EYE 8 IR 4.6 15.91 -147.20 ARCHER HIM-8 20.1
2019OCT07 094000 5.9 946.0 112.4 5.9 6.4 7.7 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 14.34 -81.28 EYE 8 IR 4.6 15.90 -147.08 ARCHER HIM-8 20.0
2019OCT07 101000 6.1 941.5 117.4 6.1 6.7 7.8 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 13.39 -81.58 EYE 8 IR 4.6 15.91 -146.99 ARCHER HIM-8 20.0
2019OCT07 104000 6.2 939.3 119.8 6.2 6.8 7.8 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 17.67 -81.10 EYE 8 IR 4.6 15.97 -146.88 ARCHER HIM-8 20.0
2019OCT07 111000 6.5 932.6 127.0 6.5 7.0 7.6 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 11.35 -80.29 EYE 8 IR 4.6 16.06 -146.78 ARCHER HIM-8 20.1


I guess the point I'm making here is that Hagibis had a stronger temperature differential, smaller radius of max wind, and yet, 45 knots weaker storm than Patricia due to a lack of recon. Different satellites being used probably skews the data a little, but the point still stands.


Was recon data incorporated into this?


Don't think so. Recon measured a much warmer eye in Patricia than ADT detected, though. I suspect this is a resolution error that also occurred in Hagibis.
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Re: WPAC: HAGIBIS - Typhoon

#433 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Oct 07, 2019 7:54 am

Highteeld wrote:Cloud tops warming, and the eye is cooling significantly. Probably a legit erc taking place right now.


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Re: WPAC: HAGIBIS - Typhoon

#434 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 07, 2019 7:57 am

Highteeld wrote:
euro6208 wrote:
Highteeld wrote:
I guess the point I'm making here is that Hagibis had a stronger temperature differential, smaller radius of max wind, and yet, 45 knots weaker storm than Patricia due to a lack of recon. Different satellites being used probably skews the data a little, but the point still stands.


Was recon data incorporated into this?


Don't think so. Recon measured a much warmer eye in Patricia than ADT detected, though. I suspect this is a resolution error that also occurred in Hagibis.


There you go. Hagibis doesn't have recon.

I remember years ago, someone on here said that ADT and Satellite estimates tend to be higher in the Western Hemisphere for some reason. He recalls a significant TC crossing over from the CPAC to the WPAC and instantaneously numbers fallen. It has something to do with the algorithm.
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Re: WPAC: HAGIBIS - Typhoon

#435 Postby Highteeld » Mon Oct 07, 2019 7:58 am

euro6208 wrote:
Highteeld wrote:
euro6208 wrote:
Was recon data incorporated into this?


Don't think so. Recon measured a much warmer eye in Patricia than ADT detected, though. I suspect this is a resolution error that also occurred in Hagibis.


There you go. Hagibis doesn't have recon.

I remember years ago, someone on here said that ADT and Satellite estimates tend to be higher in the Western Hemisphere for some reason. He recalls a significant TC crossing over from the CPAC to the WPAC and instantaneously numbers fallen.

Yeah. The raw T #'s don't add up when you look at the RMW, Scene Type, and temperature differential (Patricia vs Hagibis). This would probably be a good case of the "basin bias"
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Re: WPAC: HAGIBIS - Typhoon

#436 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 07, 2019 7:59 am

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Re: WPAC: HAGIBIS - Typhoon

#437 Postby Highteeld » Mon Oct 07, 2019 7:59 am

Highteeld wrote:
euro6208 wrote:
Highteeld wrote:
Don't think so. Recon measured a much warmer eye in Patricia than ADT detected, though. I suspect this is a resolution error that also occurred in Hagibis.


There you go. Hagibis doesn't have recon.

I remember years ago, someone on here said that ADT and Satellite estimates tend to be higher in the Western Hemisphere for some reason. He recalls a significant TC crossing over from the CPAC to the WPAC and instantaneously numbers fallen.

Yeah. The raw T #'s don't add up when you look at the RMW, Scene Type, and temperature differential (Patricia vs Hagibis). This would probably be a good case of the "basin bias"

I wouldn't be shocked in the slightest if recon had discovered 170 knots in this storm a few hours ago, either.
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Re: WPAC: HAGIBIS - Typhoon

#438 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Oct 07, 2019 8:00 am

Entry Level Category 5
Comedy

20W HAGIBIS 191007 1200 16.1N 146.7E WPAC 140 920
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Re: WPAC: HAGIBIS - Typhoon

#439 Postby Highteeld » Mon Oct 07, 2019 8:03 am

mrbagyo wrote:Entry Level Category 5
Comedy

20W HAGIBIS 191007 1200 16.1N 146.7E WPAC 140 920

the pressure is probably off by 30-40 mb, too
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Re: WPAC: HAGIBIS - Typhoon

#440 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 07, 2019 8:04 am

mrbagyo wrote:Entry Level Category 5
Comedy

20W HAGIBIS 191007 1200 16.1N 146.7E WPAC 140 920


Yeah notice JTWC likes to *obey* dvorak.
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