2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[toad strangler]

Ut oh 18Z GFS. Ridge is much weaker allowing a path north.

500mb set ups are way too delicate to trust as a given at this range. No way was the model going to stick with one solution. Chances for a storm in the Sw or S Caribbean rise though.

[Ubuntwo]

18z GEFS similar to the 12z but with a slight uptick in intensity. Most track over or near Nicaragua then stall off the coast of the Yucatan, somewhere in the W Caribbean. After then it's anyone's game.

[gatorcane]

The NAVGEM for the first time is picking up on a broad surface low that heads NW into the NW Caribbean. How the run ends at 240 hours.

Edit: the 12Z had it but less defined.

[gatorcane]

30KM 12Z FIM (Flow-following, finite-volume Icosahedral Model) has it at 240 hours moving WNW:

[gatorcane]

12Z UKMET with a broad surface low over the SW Caribbean at 168 hours:

[WeatherEmperor]

0z Icon




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[AxaltaRacing24]

yeah i think it is safe to say that the gfs is currently no longer an outlier.

[Hurricaneman]

This run of the GFS shows this will graze Honduras this run instead of CA burial

Edit: there is no ridge there like there was no ridge last run, could be a nasty run for Florida, but as always it will probably change

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like a landfall on the north side of Belize, trough doesn’t grab it and it almost stalls over the Belize Mexico border, major flooding in this run

[Hurricaneman]

Here’s something that the GFS hinges on, the eastern trough around day 8, if the trough grabs it it could be a major hurricane for Cuba, the Bahamas, and possibly any location in Florida, but if it doesn’t it could meander in the NW Caribbean or even Central America and possibly move into the BOC so the next few days may in fact change as the last 2 model runs have the trough. The 18z run is what would happen if the trough grabs it and the current run would happen if it doesn’t

Edit: trough that could grab this system is currently moving into the west coast

[USTropics]

The 00z models continue to forecast a far EATL system, with the ECMWF consistently showing a hurricane (likely overdone, as a hurricane in this region during October would be unprecedented).


There have only been two systems to form in this region in October that I can find, short-lived Ginger in 1967 and an unnamed system in 1972:

[chris_fit]

12 GFS Ens takes this to W FL

[chris_fit]

06Z GFS coming in wayyyy stronger, and more N and E

[Hurricaneman]

06Z GFS coming in wayyyy stronger, and more N and E

https://i.imgur.com/lyvO4Zk.png

I would think the weakening ridge would cause this to be more north that the GFS movement past hr 204

[N2FSU]

+204hr


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[SFLcane]

06Z GFS coming in wayyyy stronger, and more N and E

https://i.imgur.com/lyvO4Zk.png

I would think the weakening ridge would cause this to be more north that the GFS movement past hr 204

Well that trough is not optimally located to turn it Northeast. The trough is to the northeast of the storm and so it gets caught under the Western ridge and heads west. Worth noting that all the Euro ensembles turn it West if they even develop in the first place.

[TheStormExpert]

If the troughs not strong enough we’ll likely see something similar to 2010’s Matthew, or Richard, or even 2011’s Rina.

[Ivanhater]

06z gfs, hurricane into New Orleans

[NDG]

No longer the GFS is the outlier, the Euro is now the outlier.

[USTropics]

Some ensemble support from the 00z ECMWF now evident in the Caribbean. Also backing off on the far EATL hurricane:



A few tracks take this across the Yucatan: