WPAC: HAGIBIS - Post-Tropical

[Highteeld]

It'd be nice to know if surface winds in this are lagging behind presentation as is the case with many bombing out storms (I think Wilma took a few hours to catch up) but all that can be done is speculate; I wonder if we get a bigger more classic eye for easier satellite assessment after the pinhole collapses.

No doubt the tiny eye is making this more difficult.

[Cunxi Huang]

JTWC is hilarious.

WP, 20, 2019100706, , BEST, 0, 155N, 1482E, 130, 930, ST, 34, NEQ, 180, 135, 120, 170, 1007, 250, 5, 0, 10, W, 0, , 0, 0, HAGIBIS, D,

[euro6208]

Sorry I'm at work right now. What is 06Z BT saying?

130

Crime against humanity. Wow.

They should upped the STY classification status to 160 knots since they are so attracted to that status.

[CryHavoc]

It'd be nice to know if surface winds in this are lagging behind presentation as is the case with many bombing out storms (I think Wilma took a few hours to catch up) but all that can be done is speculate; I wonder if we get a bigger more classic eye for easier satellite assessment after the pinhole collapses.

Yeah speculation is tough. Given the presence and deepening of CDG and the eye temp/structure I would say that 160 knots is a good estimate. Possibly higher.

[CryHavoc]

JTWC is hilarious.

WP, 20, 2019100706, , BEST, 0, 155N, 1482E, 130, 930, ST, 34, NEQ, 180, 135, 120, 170, 1007, 250, 5, 0, 10, W, 0, , 0, 0, HAGIBIS, D,

This is a 900mb storm, if not lower.

[Cunxi Huang]

Sub-180 PCT is out there...I bet you not...but...

[Highteeld]

[EquusStorm]

In a NHC basin, there would absolutely be a special advisory right about now to bump to 135kt at the VERY least and probably well over 140. It's very hard to compare the historical record when some agencies are a good bit more conservative. It's not realistic to recon every WPac storm but for ones like this it's a tragedy to not have actual measurements.

[CryHavoc]

http://realearth.ssec.wisc.edu/api/image?products=HIMAWARI-T1-B14-GRAD.100&width=830&height=470&client=RealEarth&background=satellite&labels=line&center=15.671965477072874,148.04901123046878&zoom=8&timeproduct=HIMAWARI-T1-B14-GRAD&timespan=-25t&animate=true&animationspeed=100

'atta girl.

...

'atta boy?

Either way, getting into that "ultra-rare" category of strength with all that fluorescent pink.

I would bet all the money I have that this is well into Cat 5 territory. 150mph is a terrible joke. It's such a drastic underestimate it's borderline dangerous. Anyone hit by this storm as it is will be expecting a strong cat 4, not a raging maxing out cat 5. JTWC needs to get their act together -- science is about accurate, timely measurements. Theirs are neither timely, nor accurate, nor are they real measurements. And it's robbing the world of valuable meteorological data at this point.

In a NHC basin, there would absolutely be a special advisory right about now to bump to 135kt at the VERY least and probably well over 140. It's very hard to compare the historical record when some agencies are a good bit more conservative. It's not realistic to recon every WPac storm but for ones like this it's a tragedy to not have actual measurements.

IMO this is at least 150 knots, and that's being VERY conservative. If I were to guess I'd put it at 165 knots.

[CryHavoc]

Houston... we have a problem.

[EquusStorm]

Yeah. Historically anything with a pinhole like this that we've had recon in there in time has been that high as far as I can recall so I see no reason why it wouldn't be that crazy intense.

[doomhaMwx]

[Hayabusa]

WDPN31 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 20W (HAGIBIS)
WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 20W (HAGIBIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TY 20W IS UNDERGOING EXTREME
RAPID INTENSIFICATION (ERI: 55KTS IN 24HRS) FROM 50KTS AT 060600Z TO
THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 130 KNOTS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A COMPACT AND SHARPLY-OUTLINED EYEWALL WITH A
PINHOLE 5NM EYE. THE MSI LOOP ALSO SHOWS THE SPIRAL RAIN BANDS ARE
WRAPPING VERY TIGHTLY TOWARD THE EYEWALL RESULTING IN A
SUPER-CONDENSE AND SYMMETRIC SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
RADIAL OUTFLOW (PLUS VERY STRONG EQUATORWARD AND EASTWARD BIASES)
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). SST VALUES OF 29-30C AND HIGH
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES ALSO SUPPORT THE ERI. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
IS HELD ON THE HIGH END OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM
T5.5/102KTS TO T7.0/140KTS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. STY 20W CONTINUES TO UNDERGO ERI, THEREFORE, THE FORECAST
INTENSITIES HAVE AGAIN BEEN ADJUSTED SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE TRACK FORECAST, HOWEVER, REMAINS CONSISTENT.
B. STY 20W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. THE HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND PROMOTE FURTHER RI TO A PEAK
OF 150KTS (POSSIBLY HIGHER) AROUND TAU 24 WHEN THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW
IS FURTHER ENHANCED BY INITIAL EXPOSURE TO THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES
AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO JAPAN. AFTERWARD, INCREASING
VWS WILL TEMPER THE INTENSITY DOWN TO 135KTS BY TAU 72, ALBEIT STILL
A STY. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A GRADUAL SPREAD
TO 230NM BY TAU 72, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, STY HAGIBIS WILL TURN MORE NORTHWARD AS
IT CRESTS THE STR AXIS TOWARD A BREAK IN THE STR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER JAPAN. INCREASING VWS WILL
OFFSET THE OTHERWISE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND GRADUALLY ERODE THE
SYSTEM DOWN TO 105KTS BY TAU 120 - STILL A VERY STRONG TYPHOON - AS
IT APPROACHES SOUTHERN JAPAN. NUMERICAL MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY
TO OVER 600NM AT TAU 120, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

That is just insane! Massive cooling. Not done strengthening!

[Hayabusa]

Highest T raw right now

2019OCT07 080000 5.5 955.0 102.0 5.5 5.7 7.5 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 5.52 -79.68 EYE 8 IR 0.0 15.88 -147.58 ARCHER HIM-8 20.2

[CryHavoc]

That is just insane! Massive cooling. Not done strengthening!

https://i.imgur.com/MQNC4Wk.gif

The CDG ring exploded out of nowhere and it's sticking around. Unreal. Very possibly the most rapid intensification I've ever seen.

[NotoSans]

 https://twitter.com/philipslau681/status/1181129635339239424

[euro6208]

Oh my universe. 175 knot plus guaranteed.

[Hayabusa]

yes

2019OCT07 084000 5.6 952.8 104.6 5.6 5.9 7.7 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 15.88 -80.48 EYE 8 IR 4.6 15.90 -147.34 ARCHER HIM-8 20.1

[mrbagyo]

Extremely small eye on the Guam Radar