WPAC: HAGIBIS - Post-Tropical

[Hayabusa]

More WGM in the eye -- this is particularly interesting though; ADT has been sampling at 10 after the hour, and 20 till. This will be measured at 440z, which should give a huge RAW T number... assuming the eye is actually located.........

https://i.imgur.com/fA0yhLb.png

It made the shot at 430Z...sad

2019OCT07 043000 5.1 960.3 92.4 5.1 5.5 7.4 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 4.45 -79.33 EYE 8 IR -22.4 15.47 -148.41 ARCHER HIM-8 20.2

[mrbagyo]

[Highteeld]

More WGM in the eye -- this is particularly interesting though; ADT has been sampling at 10 after the hour, and 20 till. This will be measured at 440z, which should give a huge RAW T number... assuming the eye is actually located.........

https://i.imgur.com/fA0yhLb.png

It made the shot at 430Z...sad

2019OCT07 043000 5.1 960.3 92.4 5.1 5.5 7.4 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 4.45 -79.33 EYE 8 IR -22.4 15.47 -148.41 ARCHER HIM-8 20.2

So i guess 510z will be the next one. Looks like WMG was maintained, so we'll have to wait for then.

[NotoSans]

 https://twitter.com/philipslau681/status/1181076040099102720

[Hayabusa]

Eye temp double digits

2019OCT07 051000 5.3 956.4 97.2 5.3 5.5 7.3 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 15.58 -78.18 EYE 8 IR -22.4 15.52 -148.25 ARCHER HIM-8 20.2

[Cunxi Huang]

Hagibis RMW is estimated to be no more than 5 nmi at this time. This is an insane value no matter what.

[euro6208]

A historical typhoon if recon were available.

[NotoSans]

 https://twitter.com/philipslau681/status/1181083387479515137

[Highteeld]

Probably the warmest eye scan yet:

[Highteeld]

Probably the most awesome microwave imagery I have ever viewed:

[WAcyclone]

Looks like trochoidal wobbles of the eye are starting which means an EWRC may already be underway.

[Highteeld]

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 07 OCT 2019 Time : 054000 UTC
Lat : 15:33:00 N Lon : 148:09:36 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.5 / 952.4mb/102.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.5 5.5 7.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 8 km

Center Temp : +17.4C Cloud Region Temp : -77.7C

Scene Type : EYE

[dexterlabio]

I wonder if we'll see a "clean" EWRC. As far as I remember Haiyan had a pinhole eye at one point of its life then later on developed into a bigger one.

Pinhole eyes are cool to look at but there is always that feeling that it could fall apart very shortly as the eyewall is so razor thin and unstable (albeit very intense).

[Hayabusa]

Well they went 925 mb

TY 1919 (Hagibis)
Issued at 06:45 UTC, 7 October 2019

<Analysis at 06 UTC, 7 October>
Scale Large
Intensity Very strong
Center position N15°30' (15.5°)
E148°10' (148.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 925 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (100 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (140 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 190 km (100 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area E 650 km (350 NM)
W 440 km (240 NM)

[Highteeld]

Cat 4

20W HAGIBIS 191007 0600 15.5N 148.2E WPAC 130 930

[Hayabusa]

905 mb over the Marianas says JMA.

[doomhaMwx]

TY 1919 (Hagibis)
Issued at 06:45 UTC, 7 October 2019

<Analysis at 06 UTC, 7 October>
Scale Large
Intensity Very strong
Center position N15°30' (15.5°)
E148°10' (148.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 925 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (100 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (140 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 190 km (100 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area E 650 km (350 NM)
W 440 km (240 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 7 October>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N16°25' (16.4°)
E145°35' (145.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 905 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 55 m/s (110 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 80 m/s (155 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 300 km (160 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 8 October>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N17°40' (17.7°)
E143°05' (143.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 900 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 60 m/s (115 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 85 m/s (165 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 350 km (190 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 9 October>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N20°10' (20.2°)
E140°00' (140.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 915 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 55 m/s (105 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75 m/s (150 kt)
Radius of probability circle 170 km (90 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 390 km (210 NM)
.
.
.

[Highteeld]

Revised BT data vs operational BT sure will be a hoot. JTWC has already changed their 00z data from today twice (75 knots --> 90 knots --> 100 knots); they also switched up their 18z data (65 --> 70 knots).

Taking all of this with a grain of salt tbh.

[NotoSans]

Well as expected subjective estimates are heavily constrained LOL

[Highteeld]

Patricia w/o recon would have likely suffered the same fate... around 135 knots or so.