WPAC: HAGIBIS - Post-Tropical

[hurricanes1234]

Especially on visible in full-on daylight.

https://imgur.com/FiZibDx

I seem to have forgotten but where can we get these high contrast visible images?

RAMMB

Grazie mille!

[Yellow Evan]

T7.0 is probably too high arguably.

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1181053025542115328

[Cunxi Huang]

T7.0 is probably too high arguably.

I think JTWC is trying to match up Hagibis' actual intensity in their Dvorak estimates. It is almost unquestionable that Hagibis is already a Cat.5 in fact.

[Nancy Smar]

T7.0 is probably too high arguably.

I think JTWC is trying to match up Hagibis' actual intensity in their Dvorak estimates. It is almost unquestionable that Hagibis is already a Cat.5 in fact.

Probably you are right.

[Yellow Evan]

T7.0 is probably too high arguably.

I think JTWC is trying to match up Hagibis' actual intensity in their Dvorak estimates. It is almost unquestionable that Hagibis is already a Cat.5 in fact.

How much of a factor is lag of winds behind satellite? I realize this is a pinhole but still...

[Hayabusa]

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 07.10.2019

TYPHOON HAGIBIS ANALYSED POSITION : 15.0N 149.5E

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 07.10.2019 0 15.0N 149.5E 971 65
1200UTC 07.10.2019 12 15.9N 146.6E 954 75
0000UTC 08.10.2019 24 17.1N 143.9E 934 82
1200UTC 08.10.2019 36 18.3N 141.5E 926 93
0000UTC 09.10.2019 48 19.5N 140.1E 903 106
1200UTC 09.10.2019 60 21.0N 139.4E 892 102
0000UTC 10.10.2019 72 22.5N 138.3E 882 110
1200UTC 10.10.2019 84 24.1N 137.1E 882 106
0000UTC 11.10.2019 96 25.6N 135.7E 881 109
1200UTC 11.10.2019 108 27.3N 134.5E 884 105
0000UTC 12.10.2019 120 29.1N 133.4E 894 97
1200UTC 12.10.2019 132 31.4N 133.6E 909 93
0000UTC 13.10.2019 144 34.2N 135.1E 938 70

[Highteeld]

LOL

[Highteeld]

So like, um, is that WMG now?

[1900hurricane]

Man, if it looks this impressive on ATMS...

[Nancy Smar]

So like, um, is that WMG now?

https://i.imgur.com/l5Qx72I.png

Yes, it is WMG.

[Highteeld]

So like, um, is that WMG now?

https://i.imgur.com/l5Qx72I.png

Yes, it is WMG.

Ok. Wilma comparisons are probably valid now.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Man, if it looks this impressive on ATMS...

https://i.imgur.com/8WAiEGD.jpg

Yea, this is going to go sub 900mb in short order.

[Hayabusa]

Anyone wants to take a guess what would it be at 6Z?

[Tailspin]

Adt is notorious for being unable too estimate pineye intensty. Nothing new there.

[Highteeld]

Anyone wants to take a guess what would it be at 6Z?

145 knots? jtwc

reality? 160?

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 070308
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Typhoon Hagibis (20W) Advisory Number 8
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP202019
108 PM ChST Mon Oct 7 2019

...TYPHOON HAGIBIS RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
Tropical Storm Warning now in effect for Guam.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for Guam. Tropical
storm conditions, including damaging winds of 39 to 73 mph,
are expected tonight.

A Typhoon Warning remains in effect for Saipan, Tinian, Alamagan
and Pagan Islands in the CNMI. Typhoon conditions, including
destructive winds of 74 mph or more, are expected tonight.
Damaging winds of 39 mph or more are expected late this afternoon.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Rota and Agrihan
Islands. Tropical storm conditions, including damaging winds of
39 to 73 mph, are expected by this evening.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
Location...15.3N 148.8E

About 315 miles southeast of Agrihan
About 275 miles southeast of Pagan
About 255 miles southeast of Alamagan
About 205 miles east of Saipan
About 215 miles east of Tinian
About 255 miles east-northeast of Rota
About 300 miles east-northeast of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...115 mph
Present movement...west...280 degrees at 18 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...the center of Typhoon Hagibis was
located near Latitude 15.3 degrees North and Longitude
148.8 degrees East. Hagibis is moving west at 18 mph and is
still expected to make a slight turn toward the west-northwest
with a slight decrease in forward speed tonight and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to 115 mph. Hagibis is
forecast to intensify through tonight.

Typhoon force winds extend outward from the center up to
50 miles. Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the
center up to 175 miles.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Weather
Service at 500 PM ChST followed by the next scheduled advisory at
800 PM ChST.

$$

M. Aydlett

[TyphoonNara]

The rate of intensification of Hagibis reminds me of Typhoon Forrest in 1983, which have undergone a 92mb drop in less than a day.

[mrbagyo]

[euro6208]

Incredible. The comparisons between Wilma and Hagibis. Just keeps getting better.

150 to 165 knots now.