2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[USTropics]

Not typical of mid-late October, but the models have been hinting at the possibility of an MDR system in the long range for the past several days:

ECMWF


GFS


CMC

[OuterBanker]

I think our best bet in the short term will be that mid to upper low east of the Bahamas. Models are very likely under doing and going to under do the amount of surface reflection that will develop,. it will likely be Sub tropical at first.

Yes Aric.

All models this am are showing the low. Most are showing a block and a s it lingers off the N C to Nwe England coast.

Could drop to surface and become warm core, but doubt that it will get named.

Should stay off coast, but could be very problematic if it deepens more than forecast.

Shipping, surf and erosion are my main concerns.

[xironman]

I think our best bet in the short term will be that mid to upper low east of the Bahamas. Models are very likely under doing and going to under do the amount of surface reflection that will develop,. it will likely be Sub tropical at first.

Yes Aric.

All models this am are showing the low. Most are showing a block and a s it lingers off the N C to Nwe England coast.

Could drop to surface and become warm core, but doubt that it will get named.

Should stay off coast, but could be very problematic if it deepens more than forecast.

Shipping, surf and erosion are my main concerns.

Kind of looks like an STS to me, so I would not discount naming



The euro shows a gale lasting over 36 hours on the OBX that would be major erosion.

[kevin]

TC formation starts around the 14th of October (@186 hours) in the 06z GEFS ensemble run. The formation date has stayed quite constant the last few runs/days, so personally I think the chance of something actually happening has increased significantly the last few days now that we're firmly outside of the 240+ hours timespan. Here's a gif of the run from 180 - 384 hours.

[gatorcane]

The overnight GFS runs have trended away from west through Nicaragua getting buried into CA. Latest sends in NW into the NW Caribbean where it recurves and heads NE barely missing South Florida. I’d say development chances have gone up substantially with other models coming on board.

The question is really how strong and where will it go. Climo suggests peninsula Florida is really going to need to pay attention.

[SFLcane]

The overnight GFS runs have trended away from west through Nicaragua getting buried into CA. Latest sends in NW into the NW Caribbean where it recurves and heads NE barely missing South Florida. I’d say development chances have gone up substantially with other models coming on board.

The question is really how strong and where will it go. Climo suggests peninsula Florida is really going to need to pay attention.

I would not say trended just yet it clearly buries it into CA it that could be it for it. GFS just redevelops it then shoots of NE. Either this will be a big coupe for the GFS or it will give up this idea as the Euro is still silent.

[SFLcane]

GFS is still an outlier...

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1180823012586774529

[LarryWx]

Through 264 hours, it looks like around 10-11 of the 51 EPS members develop a TC in the Western Caribbean. I believe this is the biggest signal for potential development that the EPS has shown so far.

Edit: Some move west into Central America, but the majority move north west and end up moving into the GOM or over Cuba. Obviously this far out any tracks are still highly suspect.

This fairly sharp increase in EPS activity to ~20% of members along with the GEFS finally showing signs of progressing/sticking with a busy 0Z on 10/18 is now starting to get me a bit concerned. That doesn't mean I think we should panic though. It just bares watching a bit more than it did earlier imo.

For example, here is the 0Z GEFS for 0Z on 10/18, my benchmark timeframe:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2019100600/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_watl_49.png

Since I made this post, two things happened:

1. The 0Z EPS is a good bit quieter than that prior (12Z) run, which had 20% concerning members. This run has way fewer. Was that run just an aberration? Nobody knows.

2. The 6Z GEFS is less threatening than the 0Z as of my benchmark time, 0Z on 10/18, with fewer strong members:

[NDG]

Mark my words, there will be tropical development over in the Caribbean before the end of the month, SSTs there are the warmest in the basin, shear continues to be below average, strong easterly surface jet is not present with surface convergence continuing to be near average to slightly below average. Even the EPS shows slightly below average MSLPs through at least the next 10 days.

[DioBrando]

I think our best bet in the short term will be that mid to upper low east of the Bahamas. Models are very likely under doing and going to under do the amount of surface reflection that will develop,. it will likely be Sub tropical at first.

Yes Aric.

All models this am are showing the low. Most are showing a block and a s it lingers off the N C to Nwe England coast.

Could drop to surface and become warm core, but doubt that it will get named.

Should stay off coast, but could be very problematic if it deepens more than forecast.

Shipping, surf and erosion are my main concerns.

Kind of looks like an STS to me, so I would not discount naming

https://i.imgur.com/o1mvCQA.png

The euro shows a gale lasting over 36 hours on the OBX that would be major erosion.

https://i.imgur.com/wZsuzST.png

I seriously wonder if this could be baroclinically enhanced in the face of 50 knots of shear, a la Humberto.

[Ken711]

I think our best bet in the short term will be that mid to upper low east of the Bahamas. Models are very likely under doing and going to under do the amount of surface reflection that will develop,. it will likely be Sub tropical at first.

Yes Aric.

All models this am are showing the low. Most are showing a block and a s it lingers off the N C to Nwe England coast.

Could drop to surface and become warm core, but doubt that it will get named.

Should stay off coast, but could be very problematic if it deepens more than forecast.

Shipping, surf and erosion are my main concerns.

Kind of looks like an STS to me, so I would not discount naming

https://i.imgur.com/o1mvCQA.png

The euro shows a gale lasting over 36 hours on the OBX that would be major erosion.

https://i.imgur.com/wZsuzST.png

Looks like a Nor'easter.

[blp]

GFS is still an outlier...

[l]https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1180823012586774529?s=21 t][/url]

That argument may have more weight if not for the fact that the ICON and CMC also show the development on the W. Carribean side. So this cannot be a just a GFS outlier.

My thoughts are the Euro which tends to struggle with cyclogenesis is not picking up on the correct low just yet like has happened before especially in MDR or deep tropics. I think it will start showing something soon though.

[LarryWx]

Mark my words, there will be tropical development over in the Caribbean before the end of the month, SSTs there are the warmest in the basin, shear continues to be below average, strong easterly surface jet is not present with surface convergence continuing to be near average to slightly below average. Even the EPS shows slightly below average MSLPs through at least the next 10 days.

I think the odds are pretty high for one or possibly two between now and the end of the month per climo. However, the probable bigger questions, which nobody could possibly know now, are where would such TC(s) go and how strong would it (they) be? So, even if one or more were to form, there obviously could still be minimal or no effect on all or almost all board members.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Or it could be completely wrong just like it was the last week of September for today. It was showing a system developing day after day in the nw Caribbean a few days before or on this day and moving into the gulf or BOC. It fizzled on that then pushed development back til mid month.

[OuterBanker]

Yes Aric.

All models this am are showing the low. Most are showing a block and a s it lingers off the N C to Nwe England coast.

Could drop to surface and become warm core, but doubt that it will get named.

Should stay off coast, but could be very problematic if it deepens more than forecast.

Shipping, surf and erosion are my main concerns.

Kind of looks like an STS to me, so I would not discount naming

https://i.imgur.com/o1mvCQA.png

The euro shows a gale lasting over 36 hours on the OBX that would be major erosion.

https://i.imgur.com/wZsuzST.png

Looks like a Nor'easter.

To be honest I hope it does become warm core. Affects are generally shorter.

Nor'Easters on the other hand can linger for days causing more damage.

[NDG]

Another reason why I think that there will be development over the Caribbean over the next few weeks, the MJO will be staying around in our part of the world at least through the 3rd week of this month.

[Hurricaneman]

Is it me or does the 12zGFS form this well NE of its previous runs

Edit: indeed forms this 150mi NE of the last several runs, much more dangerous position

[Bhuggs]

Is it me or does the 12zGFS form this well NE of its previous runs

Edit: indeed forms this 150mi NE of the last several runs, much more dangerous position

Looks like it, and the ridge is trending away more dangerous

[toad strangler]

Is it me or does the 12zGFS form this well NE of its previous runs

Edit: indeed forms this 150mi NE of the last several runs, much more dangerous position

Specific locations / setup not important to me yet. Too far out. What is important is this continues to move up on the GFS. That combined with favorable signals such as the MJO Index just posted tells me there is a storm a brewing.

[LarryWx]

Is it me or does the 12zGFS form this well NE of its previous runs

Edit: indeed forms this 150mi NE of the last several runs, much more dangerous position

And even with that more dangerous position, it still turns out to be a nothingburger for the US as it gets buried into C America while a second TC tries to form to its east over the NW Caribbean. Interesting.