2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[chaser1]

Hmmm, down to 957 mb in the SW Caribbean at 258 hours. Stronger then the 18Z run but consistent with it. We'll have to wait and see if the GFS can tie together a few more model runs that move closer in time. Also this clearly puts genesis within the EURO time-frame if it were to equally become increasingly bullish with development.

[chaser1]

Ruh Roh. Not a good set up. Diving short wave in the Central Plains, 940's hurricane drifting north in the W. Caribbean, & some place potentially get plowed. Cuba? Yucatan? Florida Jamaica? Way to far out to be a given but slowly getting close enough to becoming a possibility.

[Hurricaneman]

The 0zGFS is real imposing for Cuba it looks like, looks like anyone from Nicaragua to The Bahamas and anyone in between including the eastern GOM need to keep an eye on this

Edit: the 0zGFS shows a cat 4/5 landfall in Cuba and possibly another major for the Bahamas but this is so far out in the model it will likely change

[AxaltaRacing24]

The 0zGFS is real imposing for Cuba it looks like, looks like anyone from Nicaragua to The Bahamas and anyone in between including the eastern GOM need to keep an eye on this

Edit: the 0zGFS shows a cat 4/5 landfall in Cuba and possibly another major for the Bahamas but this is so far out in the model it will likely change

Yeah a 300+ hour track is not going to verify, but if other models start to latch on to this, then that is an area of concern.

[otowntiger]

Judging by the silence in this thread since late last night I’m guessing models must’ve gone back to showing nothing or at least the Euro must still not be picking up up on anything.

[SFLcane]

Now at 140-150 hrs but buries it into Central America. Let’s see if shows up on the EC/EPS.

[gatorcane]

06Z GFS again develops but pushes it over CA and the remnants get pulled NE due to a very strong cold front:

The key thing here is that timeframe for genesis starting in the SW Carib is up to 168 hours now

[SFLcane]

Burying into Central America can happen with these sometimes.

[SFLcane]

Ecmwf is still virtually nothing.

[SFLcane]

GEFS mostly into Central America.

[toad strangler]

GEFS mostly into Central America.

6z GEFS mostly into CA but many members do not get buried and do get pulled NE.
0z Euro does not show much of anything so that is a big negative for the GFS once again. BUT ... the GFS is moving this forward so we track.

[AnnularCane]

I'm kind of hoping that anything that does form down there will bring a nice soaking rain up here.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1180503960161009665

[SFLcane]

Ridge to the north = West into Nicaragua.

[gatorcane]

Yep and if you look at the last two runs of the GFS, that ridge has trended stronger. Euro and CMC have a strong ridge too at least the 00Z runs had it.

[SFLcane]

Could be an Otto 2016.

[toad strangler]

If a storm forms (no matter where it goes) it's a huge kick in the butt to the Euro.

[gatorcane]

12Z GEM joining the GFS with development but sends it NW into the NW Carib:



Trough-ridge setup at 234 hours:

[toad strangler]

12Z GEM joining the GFS with development but sends it NW into the NW Carib:

https://i.postimg.cc/QdrvtBwB/gem-mslp-pcpn-watl-36.png

Trough-ridge setup at 234 hours:

CMC is showing a similar ridge to the GFS and Euro. I don't buy 500mb setups this far out. The story is that a storm in the SW Caribbean seems more and more likely. The Euro being left in the dust.

[N2FSU]

GFS May be showing a strong ridge at 7+ days, but I will still lean towards climatology and say if something forms there, it’s moving generally NW/N/NE and a potential Florida threat.