2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

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Hurricaneman
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1081 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Oct 03, 2019 11:52 am

The 12zGFS shows cyclogenesis at day 8, it’s coming down in time, may need to watch this. It all depends where it develops or if it develops whether it’s a threat to the US and Central America or if it never develops
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1082 Postby Bhuggs » Thu Oct 03, 2019 11:55 am

Hurricaneman wrote:The 12zGFS shows cyclogenesis at day 8, it’s coming down in time, may need to watch this. It all depends where it develops or if it develops whether it’s a threat to the US and Central America or if it never develops



Yea, and could easily lead to a pacific storm as this run is showing. Will be interesting to watch
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1083 Postby LarryWx » Thu Oct 03, 2019 12:07 pm

Yesterday's 6Z GEFS for 0Z on 10/18:
Image

Today's 6Z GEFS for 0Z on 10/18:
Image
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1084 Postby SFLcane » Thu Oct 03, 2019 12:09 pm

12z GFS just about finally dropped development. The epac is very busy though
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1085 Postby Hurricane Jed » Thu Oct 03, 2019 1:00 pm

Since 2010, the following significant storms or majors in October. Tomas-2010, Ophelia and Rina-2011, Sandy-2012, Gonzalo-2014, Joaquin-2015, Matthew, Nicole, Otto-2016, Nate and Ophelia-2017, Michael-2018. I may have missed a few but bottom line is we’ve seen plenty of big ones in October. It would be rather unwise to declare the season over.
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1086 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Oct 03, 2019 1:20 pm

Time to look elsewhere or wait for a front to drop down into the GoM or Western Caribbean to trigger development. The CAG will favor development on the East Pacific side this time around. I'm sure folks in the FL Panhandle are ok with that, don't need another October monster like we saw last October.
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1087 Postby SFLcane » Thu Oct 03, 2019 5:46 pm

This thread has gone silent.. :(

Just like the global models.
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1088 Postby Hurricane Jed » Thu Oct 03, 2019 6:17 pm

Have some patience
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1089 Postby Astromanía » Thu Oct 03, 2019 6:34 pm

I'll just put this here
Image
Image
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1090 Postby Hurricane Jed » Thu Oct 03, 2019 6:39 pm

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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1091 Postby LarryWx » Thu Oct 03, 2019 7:07 pm



Today’s Happy Hour GEFS for 0Z on 10/18: more active again fwiw
Image
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1092 Postby gatorcane » Thu Oct 03, 2019 7:07 pm

I am not convinced the Atlantic goes down this easy. I am pretty confident we will see a storm in the Caribbean and likely the Western Caribbean in October. Also not set in stone that genesis will be in the EPAC. I am actually a little skeptical as that is more of a late May or June pattern. In fact the 18Z GEFS shows some ensembles yet again with Atlantic side development and this is how it ends:

Image
Last edited by gatorcane on Thu Oct 03, 2019 7:11 pm, edited 4 times in total.
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1093 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Oct 03, 2019 7:08 pm

For a few runs now, there are signs the EPAC hurricane tries to spin back up in the Gulf. Something to keep an eye on at least
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1094 Postby LarryWx » Thu Oct 03, 2019 7:18 pm

gatorcane wrote:I am not convinced the Atlantic goes down this easy. I am pretty confident we will see a storm in the Caribbean and likely the Western Caribbean in October. Also not set in stone that genesis will be in the EPAC. I am actually a little skeptical as that is more of a late May or June pattern. In fact the 18Z GEFS shows some ensembles yet again with Atlantic side development and this is how it ends:

https://i.postimg.cc/7YNZ8XcT/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-65.png


The issue with GEFS is it keeps on having active W Caribbean runs every couple of runs like this Happy Hour run but they almost always wait til way out in late week 2/no progressing forward in time and with no more than very weak support from the EPS. It is like 6 days ago all over again. Broken record. I’m still waiting for progression or the EPS.
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1095 Postby Hurricane Jed » Thu Oct 03, 2019 7:53 pm

I feel like the pot is bubbling and something will happen
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1096 Postby HURRICANELONNY » Thu Oct 03, 2019 7:54 pm

Wait till the next fronts sag down towards end of next week. Models might be popping then. Lower pressures in the carribean could spin something in about a week or 2. :eek:
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1097 Postby EquusStorm » Thu Oct 03, 2019 8:13 pm

Would be nearly unprecedented for the season to end with Lorenzo, unless El Nino had lingered significantly. What October lacks in quantity it makes up for in sheer horror (especially in this current active Atlantic cycle) if something gets going in the right place so not sleeping on anything going on out there.
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1098 Postby Astromanía » Thu Oct 03, 2019 8:33 pm

gatorcane wrote:I am not convinced the Atlantic goes down this easy. I am pretty confident we will see a storm in the Caribbean and likely the Western Caribbean in October. Also not set in stone that genesis will be in the EPAC. I am actually a little skeptical as that is more of a late May or June pattern. In fact the 18Z GEFS shows some ensembles yet again with Atlantic side development and this is how it ends:

https://i.postimg.cc/7YNZ8XcT/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-65.png

This is the typical storm you see in October on EPAC I don´t know what are you talkin about
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1099 Postby Hurricaneman » Fri Oct 04, 2019 2:49 am

Euro is starting to show vorticity in the SW Caribbean
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1100 Postby jconsor » Fri Oct 04, 2019 3:31 am

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