2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[Hurricaneman]

The 12zGFS shows cyclogenesis at day 8, it’s coming down in time, may need to watch this. It all depends where it develops or if it develops whether it’s a threat to the US and Central America or if it never develops

[Bhuggs]

The 12zGFS shows cyclogenesis at day 8, it’s coming down in time, may need to watch this. It all depends where it develops or if it develops whether it’s a threat to the US and Central America or if it never develops

Yea, and could easily lead to a pacific storm as this run is showing. Will be interesting to watch

[LarryWx]

Yesterday's 6Z GEFS for 0Z on 10/18:


Today's 6Z GEFS for 0Z on 10/18:

[SFLcane]

12z GFS just about finally dropped development. The epac is very busy though

[Hurricane Jed]

Since 2010, the following significant storms or majors in October. Tomas-2010, Ophelia and Rina-2011, Sandy-2012, Gonzalo-2014, Joaquin-2015, Matthew, Nicole, Otto-2016, Nate and Ophelia-2017, Michael-2018. I may have missed a few but bottom line is we’ve seen plenty of big ones in October. It would be rather unwise to declare the season over.

[TheStormExpert]

Time to look elsewhere or wait for a front to drop down into the GoM or Western Caribbean to trigger development. The CAG will favor development on the East Pacific side this time around. I'm sure folks in the FL Panhandle are ok with that, don't need another October monster like we saw last October.

[SFLcane]

This thread has gone silent..

Just like the global models.

[Hurricane Jed]

Have some patience

[Astromanía]

I'll just put this here

[Hurricane Jed]

I'll just put this here
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019100318/gfs_mslp_uv850_epac_52.png
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019100318/gfs_mslp_uv850_epac_58.png

Could be a recurver. It’d be nice to get some rain in Central Texas here

[LarryWx]

Yesterday's 6Z GEFS for 0Z on 10/18:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2019100206/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_watl_64.png

Today's 6Z GEFS for 0Z on 10/18:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2019100306/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_watl_60.png

Today’s Happy Hour GEFS for 0Z on 10/18: more active again fwiw

[gatorcane]

I am not convinced the Atlantic goes down this easy. I am pretty confident we will see a storm in the Caribbean and likely the Western Caribbean in October. Also not set in stone that genesis will be in the EPAC. I am actually a little skeptical as that is more of a late May or June pattern. In fact the 18Z GEFS shows some ensembles yet again with Atlantic side development and this is how it ends:

[Ivanhater]

For a few runs now, there are signs the EPAC hurricane tries to spin back up in the Gulf. Something to keep an eye on at least

[LarryWx]

I am not convinced the Atlantic goes down this easy. I am pretty confident we will see a storm in the Caribbean and likely the Western Caribbean in October. Also not set in stone that genesis will be in the EPAC. I am actually a little skeptical as that is more of a late May or June pattern. In fact the 18Z GEFS shows some ensembles yet again with Atlantic side development and this is how it ends:

https://i.postimg.cc/7YNZ8XcT/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-65.png

The issue with GEFS is it keeps on having active W Caribbean runs every couple of runs like this Happy Hour run but they almost always wait til way out in late week 2/no progressing forward in time and with no more than very weak support from the EPS. It is like 6 days ago all over again. Broken record. I’m still waiting for progression or the EPS.

[Hurricane Jed]

I feel like the pot is bubbling and something will happen

[HURRICANELONNY]

Wait till the next fronts sag down towards end of next week. Models might be popping then. Lower pressures in the carribean could spin something in about a week or 2.

[EquusStorm]

Would be nearly unprecedented for the season to end with Lorenzo, unless El Nino had lingered significantly. What October lacks in quantity it makes up for in sheer horror (especially in this current active Atlantic cycle) if something gets going in the right place so not sleeping on anything going on out there.

[Astromanía]

I am not convinced the Atlantic goes down this easy. I am pretty confident we will see a storm in the Caribbean and likely the Western Caribbean in October. Also not set in stone that genesis will be in the EPAC. I am actually a little skeptical as that is more of a late May or June pattern. In fact the 18Z GEFS shows some ensembles yet again with Atlantic side development and this is how it ends:

https://i.postimg.cc/7YNZ8XcT/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-65.png

This is the typical storm you see in October on EPAC I don´t know what are you talkin about

[Hurricaneman]

Euro is starting to show vorticity in the SW Caribbean

[jconsor]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1180036857834418176