2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[toad strangler]

Good thing we're not planning our annual vacation at Disney World for the week of Oct. 21st. Wait, we are! However, what are the odds that the 384-hr panel of the GFS is correct?

Probably lower than the Dolphins winning the Super Bowl this season.

[wxman57]

Looking back at the 12Z GFS runs starting last Wednesday (Sept. 25th), here's where/when it predicted development:

Sept. 25 - NW Caribbean on Oct 4
Sept. 26 - SE Gulf on Oct 5
Sept. 27 - NW Caribbean on Oct 10
Sept. 28 - NW Caribbean on Oct 14
Sept. 29 - SW Caribbean on Oct 13
Sept. 30 - NW Caribbean on Oct 12
Oct. 1 - Near Haiti Oct 12
Oct. 2 - W Caribbean Oct 13

All development is occurring after 10 days, so far. Will be interesting to see what is predicted by this weekend when the development falls within the GFS' higher-res time and within the EC & Canadian models. Western Caribbean is definitely a place to watch in October. The tropics always know when I'm planning a vacation, too. Florida has been threatened or struck by a storm the first week or two of October for the past 3 years, generally not long before our annual trip there. That's why we plan our vacation around the 21st.

[chaser1]

Good thing we're not planning our annual vacation at Disney World for the week of Oct. 21st. Wait, we are! However, what are the odds that the 384-hr panel of the GFS is correct?

Probably lower than the Dolphins winning the Super Bowl this season.

(That's a close call. I'd actually, i'd go with maybe a 3% greater chance of the GFS 384 hr. verifying then the Dolphins winning this years's Super Bowl )

[WeatherEmperor]

The 12Z Euro model shows nothing in the SW Caribbean at all through 240hrs. In fact, looking at the MSLP anomalies map it shows slightly higher than normal sea level pressures. The 12Z Canadian also does not show development in the SW Caribbean. So once again the GFS stands alone.

[chaser1]

Well that’s a scary run of the GFS. Pretty much rides I-4 through Florida

Yep, could be something between a Central Fla. Charlie track or a more southward Wilma type track....... or just a washed out low flying to the N.E. that'll usher in Florida's first cold front of the year with it's backside circulation

[chaser1]

The 12Z Euro model shows nothing in the SW Caribbean at all through 240hrs. In fact, looking at the MSLP anomalies map it shows slightly higher than normal sea level pressures. The 12Z Canadian also does not show development in the SW Caribbean. So once again the GFS stands alone.

Even the GFS Legacy shows "nada"

[LarryWx]

The 12Z Euro model shows nothing in the SW Caribbean at all through 240hrs. In fact, looking at the MSLP anomalies map it shows slightly higher than normal sea level pressures. The 12Z Canadian also does not show development in the SW Caribbean. So once again the GFS stands alone.

Even the GFS Legacy shows "nada"

The Legacy is now nada, period, as I think it stopped running.

[crownweather]

The 12Z Euro model shows nothing in the SW Caribbean at all through 240hrs. In fact, looking at the MSLP anomalies map it shows slightly higher than normal sea level pressures. The 12Z Canadian also does not show development in the SW Caribbean. So once again the GFS stands alone.

Even the GFS Legacy shows "nada"

The Legacy is now nada, period, as I think it stopped running.

Yeah, last model cycle that was run appears to be the 06Z one on September 30th (Tropical Tidbits).

[SFLcane]

Interesting listen from Mark at hurricane track.com regarding the potential for Carib development. He seems confident there will be.


https://youtu.be/rMg9CHQhh8M

[johngaltfla]

Good thing we're not planning our annual vacation at Disney World for the week of Oct. 21st. Wait, we are! However, what are the odds that the 384-hr panel of the GFS is correct?

Probably lower than the Dolphins winning the Super Bowl this season.

[mlfreeman]

Good thing we're not planning our annual vacation at Disney World for the week of Oct. 21st. Wait, we are! However, what are the odds that the 384-hr panel of the GFS is correct?

1 in 292,201,338



(for the record, that's the odds of winning the Powerball)

[Hurricaneman]

This run forms around 10days, May have to watch this system

[Frank2]

A Florida hurricane in the 12Z but not the 18Z and realized the 06Z and 18Z do not have the upperair data the 00Z and 12Z have, so we wait and see. Certainly what was on the 12Z GFS was troubling, but as everyone said at 16 days it's just the model having fun...

[gatorcane]

This run forms around 10days, May have to watch this system

Yep timeframe looks to be creeping in. I would also wager to say it heads more north and not into CA as the last GFS run shows. Definitely keeping an eye on this here in South Florida.

[LarryWx]

Regarding % of the 21 members as a TC late in the run, the 18Z GEFS is the least active run of at least the last 4. Is GEFS backtracking yet again? The 12Z EPS like the 0Z EPS has a few active members, but it is nothing to write home about when you realize there are about 51 members.

[gatorcane]

Regarding % of the 21 members as a TC late in the run, the 18Z GEFS is the least active run of at least the last 4. Is GEFS backtracking yet again? The 12Z EPS like the 0Z EPS has a few active members, but it is nothing to write home about when you realize there are about 51 members.

When will the GEFS move to the FV3 core I wonder?

[toad strangler]

Regarding % of the 21 members as a TC late in the run, the 18Z GEFS is the least active run of at least the last 4. Is GEFS backtracking yet again? The 12Z EPS like the 0Z EPS has a few active members, but it is nothing to write home about when you realize there are about 51 members.

Ensembles are an excellent go to tool for mid to shorter term analysis for things like track trends and more obviously. Not so sure about the longer term being how iffy the period is to begin with for operational with solid data. And then you change the initial parameters for Ensembles .... you would think the longer range would be really skewed. Am I wrong thinking like this?

[LarryWx]

Regarding % of the 21 members as a TC late in the run, the 18Z GEFS is the least active run of at least the last 4. Is GEFS backtracking yet again? The 12Z EPS like the 0Z EPS has a few active members, but it is nothing to write home about when you realize there are about 51 members.

When will the GEFS move to the FV3 core I wonder?

I think at some point in 2020.

[gatorcane]

It is interesting to note the 06Z GFS run from this morning is nearly identical to the 18Z run just the 18z run is slightly weaker and if those runs moved this over the Western Caribbean instead of inland into CA, you get the 12Z run which is much stronger as it recurves over the NW Caribbean.

[LarryWx]

Regarding % of the 21 members as a TC late in the run, the 18Z GEFS is the least active run of at least the last 4. Is GEFS backtracking yet again? The 12Z EPS like the 0Z EPS has a few active members, but it is nothing to write home about when you realize there are about 51 members.

Ensembles are an excellent go to tool for mid to shorter term analysis for things like track trends and more obviously. Not so sure about the longer term being how iffy the period is to begin with for operational with solid data. And then you change the initial parameters for Ensembles .... you would think the longer range would be really skewed. Am I wrong thinking like this?

But single runs (operationals) out much past day 10 (and arguably past day 7) are so very often way off reality. For example, even the best operational, the Euro, was way, way off with Karen when it had a strong storm hit FL and/or TX late in the run for several runs in a row.