2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[toad strangler]

As I say this the 18z GFS is initiating spin just past the LI’s and this run looks to lift up to the N much further E than earlier runs and similar to 12z

[toad strangler]

18z GFS with two Caribbean storms lol

[WeatherEmperor]

Maybe the GFS was showing a phantom afterall? Now it has 2 low pressure areas in close proximity




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[AxaltaRacing24]

18z GFS with two Caribbean storms lol

2019ing

In all seriousness, I personally feel that phantoms or not, this model is clearly hinting at something getting going there mid-month. The key over the next week or two will to see if other models hint at it too.

[blp]

I think the formation from the Colombian low is the phantom. Looks like GFS is having a major bias in that area.

[toad strangler]

I think the formation from the Colombian low is the phantom. Looks like GFS is having a major bias in that area.

Agree and it really shows well on this run. The E storm born from energy that crosses the Atlantic. That W storm born from vorticity from the mainland.

[Hurricaneman]

since Wilma and Alpha happened in 2005, if that didn’t happen I would think the GFS was full of it but it’s a possibility as I think both areas on the model are from the same energy as the northern part develops farther east while the southern part is farther west, maybe it’s a case where the model is conflicted on where exactly this comes together so who really knows as I think we truly need to wait until this weekend before we really know what happens or doesn’t happen in the western Caribbean

[SFLcane]

18z GFS with two Caribbean storms lol

2019ing

In all seriousness, I personally feel that phantoms or not, this model is clearly hinting at something getting going there mid-month. The key over the next week or two will to see if other models hint at it too.

Yea, I need to see the EPS hint at something.

[Ubuntwo]

18z GFS with two Caribbean storms lol

2019ing

In all seriousness, I personally feel that phantoms or not, this model is clearly hinting at something getting going there mid-month. The key over the next week or two will to see if other models hint at it too.

Yea, I need to see the EPS hint at something.

FWIW, eps has a pretty strong signal for development in the deep tropical Atlantic from this same wave. Key difference is it keeps it much further east and takes it slower.

[Ucfkid]

I smell a phantom storm. Every year they show 3 or 4 storms and nothing comes out of it.

[LarryWx]

Per the 0Z/12Z EPS, 10/7-10 is by a good margin the most concentrated threat for a TC landfall for the CONUS. It isn't extremely active but there is a decent signal.The 18Z EPS concurs with the 10/7-10 threat as best as I can tell since it goes out only through 10/7. Oddly, the GEFS runs have little for that period though the inferior GEPS (which strongly tends to overdo) is quite active then.

That later GEFS based threat that originally was targeting 10/11+ may still turn out to be a phantom as it keeps slipping later and later. So, maybe the biggest threat for this month will turn out to be next week. We'll see.

[bamajammer4eva]

Some of the EPS give the Florida Panhandle a breezy to rather windy time next week



From https://weather.us/

[jconsor]

Regarding the potential for Western Caribbean tropical cyclone formation after Oct 10:

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1179251408585003008

[jconsor]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1179252239120175105

[Hurricaneman]

The 0zGFS dropped the western Caribbean system, likely a phantom

[LarryWx]

The 0Z GEFS is once again very active but not so much til days 15-16. It keeps slipping. It looks just about as active for 10/17 on the newest run as it looked on runs from 4-5 days ago for 10/12.

Another way to look at how it's slipping:
Fri 18Z run for 18Z on 10/12: very active W Caribbean


Tue 0Z run for 18Z on 10/12: much quieter in W Caribbean

[toad strangler]

The 0zGFS dropped the western Caribbean system, likely a phantom

Incorrect. The 0z GFS does not drop it. It buries it into Nicaragua.

[kevin]

Wow, a lot of activity near the end of the new GEFS ensemble run (@308 hours). Could be a phantom case, but development already begins around 240-252 hours so we should start to see more and more of it in EC and other models if it's more than a GEFS fluke. It's been pushed back about 1 day compared to how GEFS looked a few days ago, but we're nearing the breaking point where we'll finally find out if the other models are on board.

[SFLcane]

60-70% probability for a TW leaving Africa. Whether it gets in the carib is up for question.

[gatorcane]

Latest Euro keeps the wave weak now and heading west in the Caribbean. If it makes it to the Western Caribbean, I am pretty confident it will develop it there.