2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[SFLcane]

The 12Z EPS is unimpressed with any Caribbean threat in the 11-15 day period. Frankly, it is quiet on the run with only a couple of members out of 51 having a SLP of 1003 or lower. It can't get much quitter than that.

Yea... At this point thinking it's GFS fantasy bias. Consistent with the fact that it's constantly at 300h.

[LarryWx]

Today's 12Z GEFS is far less threatening to the CONUS than was the 18Z GEFS run of Friday:

today's 12Z GEFS 318:


Fri 18Z GEFS 360:

[toad strangler]

The 12Z EPS is unimpressed with any Caribbean threat in the 11-15 day period. Frankly, it is quiet on the run with only a couple of members out of 51 having a SLP of 1003 or lower. It can't get much quitter than that.

Yea... At this point thinking it's GFS fantasy bias. Consistent with the fact that it's constantly at 300h.

Not true. Initial vorticity begins as early as 258 hrs. But I get it, the safest position is to call out GFS long range phantom bias. You will be correct .... probably

[gatorcane]

Wow 18Z GFS has an absolute monster in the SW Caribbean in the long-range, a huge storm

Run ends with it ejecting NNE:

[SFLcane]

Wow 18Z GFS has an absolute monster in the SW Caribbean in the long-range, a huge storm

Run ends with it ejecting NNE:

https://i.postimg.cc/L5HWthgL/gfs-mslpa-Norm-watl-65.png

Kinda like Wilma had the very low background pressure.

[Hurricaneman]

If In the next day or 2 it starts developing within 10 days on the model we need to pay attention to this as ‘‘tis the season for such nasty systems

[Ken711]

If In the next day or 2 it starts developing within 10 days on the model we need to pay attention to this as ‘‘tis the season for such nasty systems

Bears watching I agree.

[SFLcane]

Well the GFS still has not brought in the time in terms of development leading towards this might be the every year bias with this model. Still has likely a major hurricane heading NW at the end of its long range fantasy run.

[toad strangler]

Well the GFS still has not brought in the time in terms of development leading towards this might be the every year bias with this model. Still has likely a major hurricane heading NW at the end of its long range fantasy run.

It's moving NNE not NW. The initial vort action that gets this going shows at 234 to 240 hrs now. The earliest I have noticed but that's splitting hairs at this point. I did notice that the 0z Euro has vorticity headed right for the area at 240 hours just past the LA's … which would be slower than the GFS if that is indeed the same "spark"

[Blown Away]

GFS continues to show a hurricane in the NW Caribbean in 14-16 days and generally moves it NNE. However the GFS continues to push the timing back run to run keeping this system in the 14-16 day range, so it may be a phantom model storm. It is the area to watch for October.

[SFLcane]

GFS continues to show a hurricane in the NW Caribbean in 14-16 days and generally moves it NNE. However the GFS continues to push the timing back run to run keeping this system in the 14-16 day range, so it may be a phantom model storm. It is the area to watch for October.

Still looks like GFS/GEFS bias to me honestly. Nothing on EPS which goes out to 360hrs. We shall see

[stormlover2013]

Models in long range= not a lot of confidence and will give you a migraine lol

[stormlover2013]

Seems Euro ens are onboard

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1178641437954588672

that 10 days range, GFS is 14-15 day range

[SconnieCane]

Seems the global models often struggle with the timing and location of genesis when there is a broad/unfocused area of disturbed weather from which (a) cyclone(s) may originate. Just because they cannot latch on to one particular system, doesn't mean conditions will not be favorable. IIRC we saw this to some degree with Michael and Nate the last two years, with considerable uncertainty up until a few days of genesis on which side of Central America any TC originating from the CAG would actually form.

[kevin]

Hi everyone, I have a question. Is there a website where you can see all the individual members of f.e. the GFS runs (so not only the operational runs that can be found on Tropical Tidbits)? I know we have the ensemble member pressure centers map, but is there a way to see the individual runs and not all of them in one map?

[tolakram]

Hi everyone, I have a question. Is there a website where you can see all the individual members of f.e. the GFS runs (so not only the operational runs that can be found on Tropical Tidbits)? I know we have the ensemble member pressure centers map, but is there a way to see the individual runs and not all of them in one map?

You can use this off of Tropical Tidbits, the GEFS showing individual MSLP for each member.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=atl&pkg=lowlocs&runtime=2019093006&fh=0

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/CycloforumsPR/status/1178681824882679808

[kevin]

The tweet is already translated in the post before this one, but here are the current ensembles for the posssible Cape Verde storm they're talking about. GEFS shows ten members out of 51 (20%) and GEPS shows five members out of 21 (24%). Correct me if I'm wrong about the standard number of members for GEFS and GEPS (51 and 21). As far as I can see the latest GEFS run doesn't show any members reaching hurricane strength. the GEPS one does and has one member that even reaches 962 mbar before curving OTS. But in any case, we're way too far out to make conclusions on details like that.

GEFS:


GEPS (CMC):

[SFLcane]

That wave could very well be the culprit the GFS is so hyped about in the western carib.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS rolling and has a classic October setup for genesis in the WCAR with a low forming in 250 hours. Shows a large anticyclone over the WCAR and a break in the ridge over Florida and the EGOM. Yes same wave the Euro is picking up on which is triggers development.

300 hours: