Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Just WOW. A Category 5 at 45W is absolutely nuts.
Yes, very impressive.
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Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Just WOW. A Category 5 at 45W is absolutely nuts.
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:northjaxpro wrote:There is sufficient data for maintaining Lorenzo's Cat 5 status with the wind and T 7.0 . Recon was in there this time around to support Cat 5 data and presentation.
I would be rather surprised for NHC to pull an abrupt about face about this now.
Lorenzo will remain in the record book as a groundbreaking one at that being the farthest Easternmost Cat 5 tropical cyclone ever in the North Atlantic basin.
but the NHC forecasters are all on twitter this morning talking about Lorenzo reaching Category 5 last night.
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:northjaxpro wrote:There is sufficient data for maintaining Lorenzo's Cat 5 status with the wind and T 7.0 . Recon was in there this time around to support Cat 5 data and presentation.
I would be rather surprised for NHC to pull an abrupt about face about this now.
Lorenzo will remain in the record book as a groundbreaking one at that being the farthest Easternmost Cat 5 tropical cyclone ever in the North Atlantic basin.
They're not going to. Best Track will be updated correctly to reflect the intensity I'm sure, but the NHC forecasters are all on twitter this morning talking about Lorenzo reaching Category 5 last night.
DioBrando wrote:EquusStorm wrote:Legitimately an out of place supertyphoon. Seems to have been nothing even remotely comparable in the satellite era; I don't know what we would even call this besides an Atlantic typhoon. Might also join the record books as one of the few 5s to avoid retirement unless it hits the Azores extremely hard. In which case Luigi is the only appropriate replacement to match Mario on the EPac list.
If it does happen it could actually happen... both names are Italian origin (I'm Italian myself, sharing the same name with this storm) and don't they have to match the same language?
hurricanes1234 wrote:northjaxpro wrote:Ptarmigan wrote:I am not surprised that Lorenzo is a Category 5 hurricane.
Me either. I stated earlier in the week on this thread that he had a good shot at achieiving history out in the Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic basin.
He has indeed!! An increfible ttopical cyclone! I still maintain he msy have reached Cat 5 intensity back on Thursday night. So, he has had 2 rapid intensification cycles in the past 48 hours!
Simply amazing!
If I remember correctly, it was also you who mentioned in the first pages of the Dorian thread that you felt as though the precursor for Dorian (99L) would grow into a potentially formidable tropical cyclone.
1900hurricane wrote:It's worth noting that microwave intensity estimates were running well below 140 kt. Given the DT of 7.0, I might shrug them off if they were in the 130-135 kt range due to margin of error, but the highest estimate was only 120 kt from a remarkably clean ATMS pass. Despite how much I want to see the category 5 retained, dropping to 135 kt is probably the right move.
TheAustinMan wrote:1900hurricane wrote:It's worth noting that microwave intensity estimates were running well below 140 kt. Given the DT of 7.0, I might shrug them off if they were in the 130-135 kt range due to margin of error, but the highest estimate was only 120 kt from a remarkably clean ATMS pass. Despite how much I want to see the category 5 retained, dropping to 135 kt is probably the right move.
It's worth noting though that at 1231 UTC, AMSU estimated a central pressure of 927mbar as Lorenzo was weakening from the overnight peak intensity. This was pretty close to the estimated minimum pressure of 925mbar from the NHC. This seems a little high given the Category 5 intensity and Lorenzo's size, but using the UW-CIMSS ADT environmental parameters and AMSU estimated pressure, KZC already gets me to 135 kt in the weakening phase, so there may be enough peripheral evidence alongside the Dvorak analyses to support maintaining Lorenzo at Category 5 intensity in post.
I'm not sure on the specifics of microwave wind estimates, but at least for AMSU I think that the algorithm was designed with pressure in mind first (pressures are strongly correlated with warm core temperature anomalies), so I would lend more weight to microwave pressure estimates rather than microwave wind estimates. I'm not too familiar with the ATMS/SSMIS algorithms (I would guess that they use a similar methodology to AMSU), but at least from what I've seen AMSU does a pretty spectacular job estimating pressures for high end storms.
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Interesting tidbit: Since the beginning of the satellite era (60s onward) there have only been 5 seasons that have featured >=2 category 5 hurricanes and almost all of them were in the last 15 years: 1961, 2005, 2007, 2017, and 2019.
1900hurricane wrote:Pressure gradient is blown way up. First pass only supports about 80 kt. Pressure above 950 mb. ATMS may have been on to something.
Highteeld wrote:For me, the fact that recon did not pass through Lorenzo at either of its two peaks makes it impossible for me to conclude if ADT was running hot or not, especially regarding the NHC upgrade.
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